We cannot drill our way out of this oil crisis. Since 2000, oil companies working in the U.S. have doubled the number of wells drilled per year.
Although increased drilling has added new oil to the nation's supply, it has not done so fast enough to offset the terminal decline of existing fields.
We are going to have to import more of our oil. Period.
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 5:06 am Post subject: Re: Professor Bob Carter interviewed on climate change.
I think that the latest fad is that global warming will "take a pause" for 10-20 years while natural cooling processes "mask" the warming. Such a "pause" would save great face among many climate "scientists", and people would have time to forget the whole embarrassment.
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 6:11 am Post subject: Re: Professor Bob Carter interviewed on climate change.
Global Warming is the new Y2K.
In 100 years they'll make a movie about it, with shrill Al Gore running around in his jets screaming "denier" at everybody else.
Hilarious.
Under the radar prediction that we are going to have 10 years of cooling or stable temps.
I knew GW had entered its death throes when a GW hysteric on another thread told me that GW wasn't really about warming per se, but was really about climate change.
Oh lord!
It's like the snake oil salesman who sells you the hair regrowth snake oil and, 1/2 year later when your hair doesn't grow, they tell you, it's not so much about hair growth as it is about hair luster.
By shifting the focus from the easily observed and thus easily refuted measure of "temperature increase" (right there in the title "Global Warming") to the nebulous, omnipresent, and chronic "climate change", the global warming hysterics can point to any normal variation in climate and scream, "see deniers! See! There's change! We have change! Change bad! Do something. Spend money! Tax! Call Al!"
Oh brother.
I heard one scientist describe it like this . . .
"the stabilization or lowering of earth's temperature over the next 10 years may mask global warming."
Holy canolee.
That's like saying, "my grades this year, which will average straight Cs, are masking my overall improvement in school to straight As."
Thank goodness the hysterics haven't convinced anybody to start shooting crap into the atmosphere yet.
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 5698 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 7:36 am Post subject: Re: Professor Bob Carter interviewed on climate change.
MacG wrote:
I think that the latest fad is that global warming will "take a pause" for 10-20 years while natural cooling processes "mask" the warming. Such a "pause" would save great face among many climate "scientists", and people would have time to forget the whole embarrassment.
I agree the "pause" theory is probably bunk. It's just a little too convenient.
This year does appear to be cooler so far, but I think we'll be back on the hot track very soon.
I think the climate in the US for the past year or so has been very heavily influenced by a strong, long-running La Nina. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 7:45 am Post subject: Re: Professor Bob Carter interviewed on climate change.
To quote the NSIDC (you know, those guys that study arctic ice for a living).
Quote:
Spring has arrived in the Arctic. After peaking at 15.21 million square kilometers (5.87 million square miles) in the second week of March, Arctic sea ice extent has declined through the month of April. April extent has not fallen below the lowest April extent on record, but it is still below the long-term average.
Taken together, an assessment of the available evidence, detailed below, points to another extreme September sea ice minimum. Could the North Pole be ice free this melt season? Given that this region is currently covered with first-year ice, that seems quite possible.
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 10:24 am Post subject: Re: Professor Bob Carter interviewed on climate change.
Heineken wrote:
I agree the "pause" theory is probably bunk. It's just a little too convenient.
This year does appear to be cooler so far, but I think we'll be back on the hot track very soon.
I think the climate in the US for the past year or so has been very heavily influenced by a strong, long-running La Nina.
It isn't bunk. What really happened was the environmentalists (Gore included) grabbed ahold of the topic and ran with the more CO2 = warmer idea without any caveats. While that scientific theory holds, what they didn't mention was that this additional forcing is on top of an already existing natural cycle. So, when the oceans (through the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and the sun go into a state that is a negative for the climate, there is going to be little to no warming. However, when the the PDO and AMO turn back around, and if the solar cycles don't fall off a cliff, we are going to see a rapid temperature increase in a couple of decades. Of course, by then the idiots will think that the whole thing is bunk, and everyone will be caught with their pants down.
To sum up, the climate isn't going to warm in these nice flat, consistent curves. It is more likely to be a stepwise function like we have seen since the start of the 20th century:
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3277 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 1:02 pm Post subject: Re: Professor Bob Carter interviewed on climate change.
wxman wrote:
It isn't bunk. What really happened was the environmentalists (Gore included) grabbed ahold of the topic and ran with the more CO2 = warmer idea without any caveats. While that scientific theory holds, what they didn't mention was that this additional forcing is on top of an already existing natural cycle. So, when the oceans (through the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and the sun go into a state that is a negative for the climate, there is going to be little to no warming. However, when the the PDO and AMO turn back around, and if the solar cycles don't fall off a cliff, we are going to see a rapid temperature increase in a couple of decades. Of course, by then the idiots will think that the whole thing is bunk, and everyone will be caught with their pants down.
To sum up, the climate isn't going to warm in these nice flat, consistent curves. It is more likely to be a stepwise function like we have seen since the start of the 20th century:
The problems I see with your projected timetable are at least twofold off the top of my head.
First the new 11 year Solar Cycle is just starting and is projected to peak in 2012 or 2013, so the time scale is too long for the cycle to be much of a factor, it repeats two and most of a third cycle in that time.
Secondly the Arctic in the past fluctuations has acted as a very large thermal mass which was highly reflective, preventing much energy from being absorbed. The massive decline in the Arctic Sea Ice is causing a very significant shift in the albedo of the Arctic basin, a great deal of the summer light which was reflected in the past will now be absorbed and enter into the climate system.
I do agree that Albert Gore with his lecturer's style and emphasis only on CO2 has done a disservice to climate change. He does mention Methane passingly, but there are a myriad of other factors he ignores completely like nitrous oxides, soot deposits, and so on and so forth. The only thing a pause will do is give free reign to those who demand massive increases in Coal combustion to make up for declines in Petroleum and Natural Gas. _________________ Oxygen: - An intensely habit-forming accumulative toxic substance. As little
as one breath is known to produce a life-long addiction to the gas, which addiction invariably ends in death.--Isaac Asimov
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 1:15 pm Post subject: Re: Professor Bob Carter interviewed on climate change.
People are binary thinkers. They winnow the causes of climate change down to two contenders, and then make them compete. It reminds me of the football playoffs, or American idol. The causes could be myriad, with both solar cycles and carbon emissions equally responsible. Hell, there may be a few other causes we're not even aware of, at this point.
We have to reduce our carbon emissions, and our over all consumptive patterns and population. This is common sense, because it looks quite sure that emissions are playing a strong leading role here and that is something we CAN do something about.
Joined: Aug 26, 2005 Posts: 925 Location: "Mad as Hell !"
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 5:32 pm Post subject: Re: Professor Bob Carter interviewed on climate change.
The faux media and deniers love to play up natural climate variability as a gotcha. Like using 1998 as the year when climate change stopped, even though that year was an outlier due to a very strong El Nino effect.
Here is a good explanation of how the science is often misrepresented. I suggest reading the entire link.
Quote:
The Nature article ($ub. req'd) that has caused so much angst about the possibility that we are entering a decade of cooling -- "Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector" -- has been widely misreported. I base this in part on direct communication with the lead author.
In fact, with the caveat from the authors that the study should be viewed as preliminary, and should not be used for year-by-year predictions, it is more accurate to say the Nature study is consistent with the following statements:
• The "coming decade" (2010 to 2020) is poised to be the warmest on record, globally.
• The coming decade is poised to see faster temperature rise than any decade since the authors' calculations began in 1960.
• The fast warming would likely begin early in the next decade -- similar to the 2007 prediction by the Hadley Center in Science (see "Climate forecast: hot -- and then very hot").
• The mean North American temperature for the decade from 2005 to 2015 is projected to be slightly warmer than the actual average temperature of the decade from 1993 to 2003.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
They are predicting no increase in average temperature of the "next decade" (2005 to 2015) over the previous decade, which, for them, is 2000 to 2010! And that is, in fact, precisely what the figure shows -- that the 10-year mean global temperature centered around 2010 is the roughly the same as the mean global temperature centered around 2005.
The authors have not predicted that the next 10 years won't see any warming. They have, however, offered an explanation for why temperatures have not risen very much in recent years, and perhaps why ocean temperatures have also not risen very much in the past few years. Dr. Keenlyside continues:
"However, as you correctly point out, our results show a pick up in global mean temperature for the following decade (2010-2020). Assuming a smooth transition in temperature, our results would indicate the warming picks up earlier than 2015."
Natural climate variability has always been with us, it has nothing to do with the current CO2 forcing, other then masking it.
When these cycles relent, it’s back to business as usual. Only worse, since a few cooler days then the last 5 years, like a few months of lower gas prices means people will forget about a warming planet and the reason why they shouldn’t buy an SUV. _________________ The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
Joined: Mar 09, 2007 Posts: 206 Location: No. Calif.
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 7:37 pm Post subject: Re: Professor Bob Carter interviewed on climate change.
essex wrote:
Click this for some good old common sense.
This Professor seems like a paid shill, who saids that he is in between the two extremes, i.e. the scientists and the deniers, as if all the deniers have to do is lean still more to their side to shift the truth to the center.
Anyway, the "global cooling", while probably welcome, will mask the problem so that no preventive action will be forthcoming -- as if it is not too late already.
Reading at Real Climate on this paper, their conclusion is that:
1. Climate science has been progressing and the ranges sited by IPCC do take into account the range of possible responses of the earth, such as having relatively cooler periods as well as much warmer periods.
2. That the energy balance is not much altered by these El Nino/La Nina events or, at least, not corrected sufficiently in the right direction.
What the scientists would like to see is some phenomena that reduces the Global Heating imbalance, such as reforming of the ice caps. However, as we are seeing, all the feedbacks seem to be mostly positive at this point, so we are not off the hook at all.
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