Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 9:08 am Post subject: Goldman: Oil to hit $150-200 in 6-24 months
Quote:
``The possibility of $150-$200 per barrel seems increasingly likely over the next six-24 months, though predicting the ultimate peak in oil prices as well as the remaining duration of the upcycle remains a major uncertainty,'' the Goldman analysts wrote in the report dated May 5.
Quote:
New York-based Murti first wrote of a ``super spike'' in March 2005, when he said oil prices could range between $50 and $105 a barrel through 2009. The price of crude traded in New York averaged $56.71 in 2005, $66.23 in 2006 and $72.36 in 2007. Oil rose to an intraday record $120.93 today on speculation demand will rise during the peak U.S. summer driving season.
Joined: Apr 27, 2007 Posts: 4351 Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 9:10 am Post subject: Re: Goldman: Oil to hit $150-200 in 6-24 months
Hey Tyler !!!
You catch'n all this?
As usual- the real direness of the situation is downplayed.
$600 here we come. _________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 9:15 am Post subject: Re: Goldman: Oil to hit $150-200 in 6-24 months
This version of the story is more interesting. It calls for rationing. _________________ "The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4913 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 9:16 am Post subject: Re: Goldman: Oil to hit $150-200 in 6-24 months
$200 oil should result in all of us paying at least $5/gallon at the pump? This is happening a lot faster then i imagined even a year ago.
Fortune
Quote:
By Andy Serwer
May 2, 2005
(FORTUNE Magazine) – THE NEWS SPREAD INSTANTLY ACROSS Wall Street trading desks on a Thursday morning at the end of March: "Some analyst at Goldman Sachs says oil is going to $105 a barrel! He's calling it a 'super spike'!" Within minutes the price of oil was surging--a day later it would hit a new high of $58 a barrel. Angry investors lashed out at Goldman, calling the report preposterous and accusing the firm of manipulating the market to benefit its energy-trading desk. There were calls for a government investigation. The host of one cable TV business show wondered whether the guy who made the call had "some type of insidious background." A week later, at the firm's annual shareholders' meeting, Goldman Sachs CEO Hank Paulson felt compelled to defend the report and the integrity of the analyst and his firm. Whew! Such is the nature of the oil markets these days.
So just who is this super-spike man, and what in the world was he thinking? Well, his name is Arjun Murti, and he's a veteran oil analyst and a managing director at Goldman. Press-shy by nature anyway, the poor guy was so unsettled by the reaction to his report that he refused all interview requests--until, that is, I was able to persuade him to take my call. He declined to have his photograph taken for this story.
Some will say that Murti should have realized that his prediction would cause outrage. Not necessarily. First of all, Murti's report is a thoughtful, 30-page piece of logical analysis that was grossly oversimplified by most of the media. (Al Jazeera ran one of the more reasonable reaction stories.) Second, Murti had previously raised the notion of a super spike in two reports last year--in June and September--forecasting a then sensational peak price of $80 a barrel. Last, the theory circulating that he wrote the report to benefit Goldman's trading desk is idiotic. (If or when Goldman pulls a lever to jack one of its trading positions, let's face it, you wouldn't know about it!)
Ahh...the good old days. _________________ Clothing should be optional.
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 10:03 am Post subject: Re: Goldman: Oil to hit $150-200 in 6-24 months
The amazing thing is they assumed we would need artificial constriction of supply (i.e. military action vs Iran, etc.) in order to reach the $105/bbl value. Those events did not transpire yet they were still too low with their estimate.
Joined: Feb 20, 2005 Posts: 2888 Location: Uppsala, Sweden
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 10:32 am Post subject: Re: Goldman: Oil to hit $150-200 in 6-24 months
No spare capacity, ladies and gentlemen, and practically no elasticity either. _________________ Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
Joined: Jun 18, 2005 Posts: 3980 Location: In a van down by the river
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 10:45 am Post subject: Re: Goldman: Oil to hit $150-200 in 6-24 months
Ok this is to Roccman.
Are you getting as big a kick as I am from watching those stooges over at ticker try and come to terms with this?
Man, when it comes to oil they are collectively dumber than a box of rocks. It is all I can do , to not just start making fun of them for being so durn stupped.
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 11:03 am Post subject: Re: Goldman: Oil to hit $150-200 in 6-24 months
pup55 wrote:
Quote:
``The possibility of $150-$200 per barrel seems increasingly likely over the next six-24 months, though predicting the ultimate peak in oil prices as well as the remaining duration of the upcycle remains a major uncertainty,'' the Goldman analysts wrote in the report dated May 5.
Quote:
New York-based Murti first wrote of a ``super spike'' in March 2005, when he said oil prices could range between $50 and $105 a barrel through 2009. The price of crude traded in New York averaged $56.71 in 2005, $66.23 in 2006 and $72.36 in 2007. Oil rose to an intraday record $120.93 today on speculation demand will rise during the peak U.S. summer driving season.
At least their being honest and still knowing that the prediction itself will help it get there. In the end we may find we end with alot of friends we never thought we'd have. I'm just getting ready to read 'The End of Poverty' by Sachs, and 'A Thousand Barrels a Second' by Tertzakian.
They are also predicting the superspike, not in so many words, but they say after rising to perhaps $200 it will fall back to around $150. This makes sense from several arguments, but basically that when it becomes apparent that supply will never again match demand there will be run up until demand is destroyed (some heavey speculation will also account for the spike's peak which could reach into $300 territory. Then 'demand destruction' sets in (an antiseptic term hiding some very serious issues economic, environmental and political.) Demand destruction has to happen, the question is how to get it to happen as smoothly as possible and with as little cost to the general sense of well being of those most affected by it (I'm sure someone will comment on that and that would be a worthwhile discussion.) But then afterward and for the remaining life of oil as a major resource we fall back into band trading in the $150 range, with volatility of say 20% not uncommon. Why, how? A mixture of interactions between currency and oil.
Now is the time, not for a Marshall plan to restore oil infrastructure as simmons has recently noted, but to move into relocalization, regional closed alternative energy cycles. I agree with Matt that one would suspect an industry expecting to use it's infrastructure in the future would have been maintaining it all along. This is probably another peak infrastructure issue and a canary.
It is good to see Goldman Sachs finally starting to admit (even if the info had ot be leaked) that the age of oil is over. This is the least that they owe us all as fellow humans. So now comes the time to get the message our for real, ot make sure that every American at least hears the term peak oil and can vageuly say 'peak oil means less oil in the future and it is here now or within the next ten years, we need to do something.' There is a percentage of saturation with books like 'Twilight in the Desert' that has to be reached to create a social tipping point, the needed changes can then gain momentum. Having some major universities take an interest would also help. Peak oil is an issue that will effect all humans.
The question I have for peak oilers is this, what happens when our little 'religion' becomes the official religion of the land? Do we trust
Constantine? _________________ I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 11:29 am Post subject: Re: Goldman: Oil to hit $150-200 in 6-24 months
Eli wrote:
Ok this is to Roccman.
Are you getting as big a kick as I am from watching those stooges over at ticker try and come to terms with this?
Man, when it comes to oil they are collectively dumber than a box of rocks. It is all I can do , to not just start making fun of them for being so durn stupped.
Yes I do use spell checker why?
To the vast majority of Ticker Forum dipshits the price of oil is a function of irrational speculation. Denninger, in particular, blames the price rise on moonbat environmentalists who block the drilling of every square inch of American geography.
Anyone over there who patiently attempts to explain peak oil gets banned. Try the search function for posts by Travisgod--who was a very cogent peak oiler who was banned--and you'll get an example of what I'm talking about.
Ticker Forum is an echo chamber of people I generally can't stand. _________________ Civilization: the biosphere's skin disease
Joined: Apr 27, 2007 Posts: 4351 Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 11:35 am Post subject: Re: Goldman: Oil to hit $150-200 in 6-24 months
Eli wrote:
Ok this is to Roccman.
Are you getting as big a kick as I am from watching those stooges over at ticker try and come to terms with this?
Man, when it comes to oil they are collectively dumber than a box of rocks. It is all I can do , to not just start making fun of them for being so durn stupped.
Yes I do use spell checker why?
Eli - I laugh at most everyone now...
people in cars at stop lights
my neighbors
those in grocery stores
a handful here
karl is not unique...he is an utter and complete moron for not seeing the forest through the trees.
my new mantra:
there will be plenty more of laughing mouse round here...
we called it right years ago...because it was so obvious to see 7 billion cannot live on this rock at the same time.
so very obvious...and each year 75 million more join us...today 250,000 more.
so very very obvious, but when you believe in utopian ways...when one believes in a god...when one takes on that "moral superiority" mindset...it clouds ALL rational thought.
we are a dangerous and unpredictable species...
for all you god believers..."GOD help us"...for all other rational bipeds..."Got Preps??".
[/rant off] _________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 11:36 am Post subject: Re: Goldman: Oil to hit $150-200 in 6-24 months
Eli wrote:
Ok this is to Roccman. Are you getting as big a kick as I am from watching those stooges over at ticker try and come to terms with this? Man, when it comes to oil they are collectively dumber than a box of rocks. It is all I can do , to not just start making fun of them for being so durn stupped. Yes I do use spell checker why?
Roc and Eli - I read the ticker every day.
The thing you have to realize about the ticker is that is wall to wall conservative white guys who eat a lot of apple pie.
I posted in there a while ago that we had hit Peak and that we were in Iraq to protect/steal the oil and the guy who runs the site posts a message that says, "post evidence that that's true or take it back or you will be banned."
So I got banned.
There is no tolerance there for anything other than good old fashioned, 90 IQ flag waving.
Admitting peak oil, for those MBA type conservatives, would be tantamount to admitting that the American way of life is unsustainable and unhealthy and that we are war mongers because we want to steal the little kid's lunch money.
Like most people, it's going to take bread lines for them to come to terms with it.
Joined: Apr 27, 2007 Posts: 4351 Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 11:40 am Post subject: Re: Goldman: Oil to hit $150-200 in 6-24 months
Cashmere wrote:
Eli wrote:
Ok this is to Roccman. Are you getting as big a kick as I am from watching those stooges over at ticker try and come to terms with this? Man, when it comes to oil they are collectively dumber than a box of rocks. It is all I can do , to not just start making fun of them for being so durn stupped. Yes I do use spell checker why?
Roc and Eli - I read the ticker every day.
The thing you have to realize about the ticker is that is wall to wall conservative white guys who eat a lot of apple pie.
I posted in there a while ago that we had hit Peak and that we were in Iraq to protect/steal the oil and the guy who runs the site posts a message that says, "post evidence that that's true or take it back or you will be banned."
So I got banned.
EXACTLY how I got banned.
Now I fire shots at Karl from Mish's site.
He will be proved wrong...over and over and over and over _________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
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