Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 9:02 am Post subject: Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading
cube wrote:
threadbear wrote:
cube wrote:
Like I said before the ridiculousness on this forum knows no limits.
If you want to see all hell break loose start imposing capital controls. That's what you're advocating JD.
History has made it very clear, there is no better "signal" of a collapsing society.
Happened in Malaysia, prior to the Asian meltdown of, I believe, '98. It was the only economy in that region to escape the currency roller coaster, triggered by the baht crisis, that destroyed most of the other countries in that region.
*cough*
I don't know about that threadbear (I'm not an expert on the Asia crisis) but I do know some countries got hit harder than others, for whatever reason. I think you're trying to over simplify things by just mentioning capital controls. I think there were a lot more variables than that.
Getting back to the USA:
If JD got his way and ALL his proposals were enforced, rest assured the US dollar would lose it's status as the world reserve currency. The dollar has strength because people have the freedom to do whatever they want with it. Once government steps in and starts telling people what they can and cannot do with their money then their money losses value.
Malaysia was protected, through their govt's action on curbing short term investment, that kept speculation from destroying their currency, if I remember correctly.
The ideology that all govt is bad, is just that, an ideology. If all govts are equally stupid and corrupt, a move to Zimbabwe, rather than Switzerland, for example, shouldn't be a tough choice. Which country would you rather invest in?
Joined: Dec 18, 2004 Posts: 4468 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 9:33 am Post subject: Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading
jato wrote:
Prices need to go high enough to destroy demand. Otherwise the world would experience significant oil shortages when we slide down the slope of oil depletion.
Artificially lower oil prices = less incentive to find and produce oil = steeper oil production curve post peak.
Exactly Jato! Well put!
This is quite basic, in fact, and nicely sums up what I've been saying too. Consider that in North America, $120+ oil is hardly putting a dent in demand, therefore oil prices will need to substantially increase... how much higher is the big question, but probably much higher before large numbers of people opt out of gasoline consumption.
Related Silly Humans Note: I just read that there are no additional high mileage car models (no, 30's isn't high mileage) scheduled to be imported into the USA in 2009. So unless you want to pay $25,000 for a Toyota Hybrid, any cars sold will be getting under 40 mpg. Remember, the average in France is 40 mpg. _________________ Got Dharma?
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3405 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 9:44 am Post subject: Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading
threadbear wrote:
Dude, Your first chart is off. Look at mine, in nominal terms, and adjusted for inflation. Also, check out the correction of price sometime in 2005 through 2006, back to around 50.00. How do you explain this?
Lame answer: I've seen it explained somewhere. But here's another handy graph from WTRG:
Katrina shut in 363 kbpd - the converse of a big new project coming online. But PADD III Federal Offshore actually showed a lower decline for 2006 over 2005 - more like 170 kbpd. Refineries came back on line fairly quickly. So it's impact on supply wasn't as drastic as might be assumed - certainly not as much as the earlier OPEC supply additions - and thus wouldn't have an immediate impact on price.
At any rate the overall trend is skyward - and we only have 3.73 BBO of new supply scheduled for 2010, less than CERA's 4.5% annual decline rate. Let's speculate our way out of that one! The IEA outlook that will be published in the fall should be interesting, as they're doing their own bottom-up analysis. My money's on that marking a real paradigm shift, as these new Megaprojects are quite meager additions by and large - and the biggest are in exotic exploration locales like KSA.
Course CERA also said we'll have 16 mbpd extra in 2010. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
Could you slide your shorts down please?
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3405 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 9:52 am Post subject: Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading
eastbay wrote:
Related Silly Humans Note: I just read that there are no additional high mileage car models (no, 30's isn't high mileage) scheduled to be imported into the USA in 2009. So unless you want to pay $25,000 for a Toyota Hybrid, any cars sold will be getting under 40 mpg. Remember, the average in France is 40 mpg.
I'm grateful to JD for our protracted argument about transportation. Really made me think. My bet on the big Silver Bullet for the US is a massive shift away from cars period, to two-wheelers of all shapes/sizes/motors. That seems much more economically realistic than MT sprouting up like weeds everywhere overnight, or Hybrid Nation, at least for the immediate future. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
Could you slide your shorts down please?
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 10:09 am Post subject: Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading
threadbear wrote:
Malaysia was protected, through their govt's action on curbing short term investment, that kept speculation from destroying their currency, if I remember correctly.
threadbear
have you ever seen those squishy plastic things at silly gift shops? It's filled with a gel like fluid. When you try to grab it really hard with your hand it wiggles out the other way. Even if you took a sledge hammer and tried to smash it, you cannot pin it down. It will just squish its way around the edge of the hammer. That's the way investing / speculation works. There is a bull market in commodities right now and there is absolutely nothing that the government or all the (pro-government economic interventionists people) of the world can do anything to stop it. Even if *hypothetically* the government rounded up all the day traders and hedge fund managers and pushed ALL of us over the cliff at the Grand Canyon it still would NOT stop the bull market in commodities.
threadbear wrote:
The ideology that all govt is bad, is just that, an ideology. If all govts are equally stupid and corrupt, a move to Zimbabwe, rather than Switzerland, for example, shouldn't be a tough choice. Which country would you rather invest in?
straw man argument
///
here's a good example of how government is powerless against the market:
Look at the housing market crash and the stock market.
Imagine all the "interventionist" measures the US government just implemented. Is it working? nope. see what I mean?
Last edited by cube on Fri May 09, 2008 10:17 am; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 10:13 am Post subject: Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading
Dude, Unless there is massive govt intervention, I think oil will likely remain very high, for several reasons, including diminishing supply. But people should be aware they could be blind sided, by demand destruction, globally, and the ensuing jumping off the band wagon by large investors, hedge funds.
The two-wheeler argument is a good one. Providing the climate isn't a factor, what's to prevent people from going this route, rather than clinging to their dinosaurmobiles?
Last edited by threadbear on Fri May 09, 2008 10:25 am; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 10:23 am Post subject: Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading
cube wrote:
threadbear wrote:
Malaysia was protected, through their govt's action on curbing short term investment, that kept speculation from destroying their currency, if I remember correctly.
threadbear
have you ever seen those squishy plastic things at silly gift shops? It's filled with a gel like fluid. When you try to grab it really hard with your hand it wiggles out the other way. Even if you took a sledge hammer and tried to smash it, you cannot pin it down. It will just squish its way around the edge of the hammer. That's the way investing / speculation works. There is a bull market in commodities right now and there is absolutely nothing that the government or all the (pro-government economic interventionists people) of the world can do anything to stop it. Even if *hypothetically* the government rounded up all the day traders and hedge fund managers and pushed ALL of us over the cliff at the Grand Canyon it still would NOT stop the bull market in commodities.
threadbear wrote:
The ideology that all govt is bad, is just that, an ideology. If all govts are equally stupid and corrupt, a move to Zimbabwe, rather than Switzerland, for example, shouldn't be a tough choice. Which country would you rather invest in?
straw man argument
I don't think you get what I'm saying and have said repeatedly...as long as demand remains relatively strong, globally, there will be a bull market. I'm questioning how much of the strength comes from the core problem with supply and how much of that effect is exaggerated by excessive money flows ramping up price. I could be overestimating speculation. Time will tell.
If I'm not, and demand begins to drop substantially, globally, prices could plummet, particularly if supply remains constant or increases. This could easily happen short term, when it comes to commodities, as climate change and crop damage is sporadic, somewhat random.
I've been on short seller's forums for 8 years, mainly for the links to political news, but have absorbed a little of what they're posting about. They are the ones who are the first to identify the action of large institutions and how they distort price. They are priceless in terms of identifying trends and spotting weaknesses and info that doesn't make the mainstream.
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 1:05 pm Post subject: Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading
JohnDenver wrote:
As for the E-V-I-L thing, I don't have to go any farther than your sig to demonstrate that you're a subhuman scumbag, Jack. Speculators like you are going to be great poster boys as the anti-speculator propaganda gears up. Yes indeed folks, speculators are valuable members of your community. They ratchet up the price of necessities, make money without working, and enjoy buttered popcorn while they watch human beings die. Think we should cut them some slack? <surging roar of the crowd... thumbs down> Or rape them with bone-crushing taxes? <surging roar of the crowd... thumbs up>
Tell them I've been doing nicely on natural gas as well as certain agricultural commodities. Be sure to mention that I'm hoping for a category 3 or higher hurricane in the GOM this season.
Of course the mob will scream for higher taxes. And the politicians shall duly apply them. Which will nail the naive middle class, but will not harm those who planned ahead.
Surely you don't really think the politicians - the same politicians supported by billionaires and countless millionaires - are going to close all the loopholes? I fully expect Obama to win. I fully expect a wave of populism tainted liberally (pun intended) with socialism. Perhaps even some Marxism. And I'll make profits from it. All nicely within the limits of the law.
Just think - as food increases in price, I'll make profits as millions die and tens of millions hunger.
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 2:27 pm Post subject: Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading
Jack wrote:
JohnDenver wrote:
As for the E-V-I-L thing, I don't have to go any farther than your sig to demonstrate that you're a subhuman scumbag, Jack. Speculators like you are going to be great poster boys as the anti-speculator propaganda gears up. Yes indeed folks, speculators are valuable members of your community. They ratchet up the price of necessities, make money without working, and enjoy buttered popcorn while they watch human beings die. Think we should cut them some slack? <surging roar of the crowd... thumbs down> Or rape them with bone-crushing taxes? <surging roar of the crowd... thumbs up>
Tell them I've been doing nicely on natural gas as well as certain agricultural commodities. Be sure to mention that I'm hoping for a category 3 or higher hurricane in the GOM this season.
Of course the mob will scream for higher taxes. And the politicians shall duly apply them. Which will nail the naive middle class, but will not harm those who planned ahead.
Surely you don't really think the politicians - the same politicians supported by billionaires and countless millionaires - are going to close all the loopholes? I fully expect Obama to win. I fully expect a wave of populism tainted liberally (pun intended) with socialism. Perhaps even some Marxism. And I'll make profits from it. All nicely within the limits of the law.
Just think - as food increases in price, I'll make profits as millions die and tens of millions hunger.
Joined: Aug 14, 2004 Posts: 2066 Location: San Diego, Ca.
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 2:52 pm Post subject: Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading
JohnDenver wrote:
The solution is to disincentivize the flight into commodities, and get the speculators back into stocks, bonds and real estate, where they belong. Instead of windfall taxes on productive entities like the oil companies, we need windfall taxes on the profits of *non-productive* entities, like commodity speculators. Like I said, I like the idea of beefed up reporting requirements and a 95%+ windfall tax on gains from oil speculation.
I hope your plan works JohnDenver. I would like prices to drop so I can afford to drive my 2x SUVs and V8 sports car more often.
_________________ "Peak oil isn't more than an interesting industry factoid and doesn't have anything to do with the hysterics speculated on ad nauseum around here!" ReserveGrowthRulz
Joined: Nov 06, 2007 Posts: 682 Location: Illinois
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 2:54 pm Post subject: Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading
cube wrote:
There is a bull market in commodities right now and there is absolutely nothing that the government or all the (pro-government economic interventionists people) of the world can do anything to stop it.
if the FED started raising interest rates that would take the steam out of this commodity bull market. _________________ The oil barrel is half-full.
Joined: Dec 18, 2004 Posts: 4468 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 2:57 pm Post subject: Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading
kublikhan wrote:
cube wrote:
There is a bull market in commodities right now and there is absolutely nothing that the government or all the (pro-government economic interventionists people) of the world can do anything to stop it.
if the FED started raising interest rates that would take the steam out of this commodity bull market.
Yup. If the FED raised rates right now it would certainly take the steam out of just about all the markets... , well, out of the US markets anyhow. _________________ Got Dharma?
Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 5926 Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 3:11 pm Post subject: Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading
kublikhan wrote:
if the FED started raising interest rates that would take the steam out of this commodity bull market.
The Wall Street Journal has a survey of leading economists in today's edition...the largest number of them say increasing demand from China and India is the main cause of rising oil and commodity prices.
Raising FED rates would sink the US economy and have no effect on China and India's rapidly growing consumption of oil and all other commodities....the result would be low growth combined with continued inflation of commodities in the US.
Joined: Nov 06, 2007 Posts: 682 Location: Illinois
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 3:30 pm Post subject: Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading
Plantagenet wrote:
The Wall Street Journal has a survey of leading economists in today's edition...the largest number of them say increasing demand from China and India is the main cause of rising oil and commodity prices.
Far be it from me to disagree with these leading economists, but I respectfully disagree. I believe investment money is moving into commodities as a hedge against the falling dollar and driving prices up. Also, these guys have a tendency to talk from both sides of their mouths:
Quote:
the Fed acknowledges that low interest rates might at a minimum be feeding speculative selling of the dollar and buying of commodities, a concern that factored into its decision to signal Wednesday a pause in rate cuts.
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But here's another handy graph from WTRG:
My bet on the big Silver Bullet for the US is a massive shift away from cars period, to two-wheelers of all shapes/sizes/motors. That seems much more economically realistic than MT sprouting up like weeds everywhere overnight, or Hybrid Nation, at least for the immediate future.
