How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Joined: May 18, 2006 Posts: 3828 Location: Minneapolis, MN
Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 8:42 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
Gazzatrone wrote:
vision-master wrote:
Chronic fuel shortages in 1st World Countries.
You don't need shortages. The "final sign" will be fuel unaffordable by the masses.
No, I still think the final sign will be shortages. Unaffordable will come before shortages. Besides, what does unaffordable really mean anyhoo? Shortages will mean NO GAS at the pump. Money will not matter!
Joined: Mar 07, 2007 Posts: 288 Location: Houston, TX
Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 10:36 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
In free markets there is no shortage of any kind on any item because we have exchanges.
Whenever there is an item be it oil or iron ore or orange juice or whatever is short on supply, price goes up and demand goes down and the equilibrium is reached.
In the case of oil the the demand for oil in the world is not down so price keeps going up till it hits the equilibrium.
In short, there can never be shortages in free markets. Except temporary situations like war, hurricane etc
Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 11:54 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
misterno wrote:
In free markets there is no shortage of any kind on any item because we have exchanges.
Whenever there is an item be it oil or iron ore or orange juice or whatever is short on supply, price goes up and demand goes down and the equilibrium is reached.
In the case of oil the the demand for oil in the world is not down so price keeps going up till it hits the equilibrium.
In short, there can never be shortages in free markets. Except temporary situations like war, hurricane etc
That's true on paper and in theory but in the real world that logic doesn't hold up especially when you are talking about a commodity that is finite and irreplacable.
"Let them eat cake" if the bread gets too expensive. However, if oil gets too expensive tomorrow for 80% of the population what will they substitute for it? If water shot to $1000 a pint there is no shortage for the few who could afford it but for the rest of the populace they are royally screwed.
You're playing semantics here. Very expensive oil is a SHORTAGE of Affordable oil. Lets just call it what it is....a SHORTAGE.
Joined: Mar 07, 2007 Posts: 318 Location: Holland, United Kingdom (of the seven Netherlands)
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 12:14 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
usncom wrote:
misterno wrote:
In free markets there is no shortage of any kind on any item because we have exchanges.
Whenever there is an item be it oil or iron ore or orange juice or whatever is short on supply, price goes up and demand goes down and the equilibrium is reached.
In the case of oil the the demand for oil in the world is not down so price keeps going up till it hits the equilibrium.
In short, there can never be shortages in free markets. Except temporary situations like war, hurricane etc
That's true on paper and in theory but in the real world that logic doesn't hold up especially when you are talking about a commodity that is finite and irreplacable.
"Let them eat cake" if the bread gets too expensive. However, if oil gets too expensive tomorrow for 80% of the population what will they substitute for it? If water shot to $1000 a pint there is no shortage for the few who could afford it but for the rest of the populace they are royally screwed.
You're playing semantics here. Very expensive oil is a SHORTAGE of Affordable oil. Lets just call it what it is....a SHORTAGE.
Very expensive oil means that it is scarce. There will not be a shortage. It will be there, but you just won't be able to afford it.
At the moment gold is scarce too. There is no shortage. I'd like a golden car, but can't afford it.
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 5:31 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
vision-master wrote:
Chronic fuel shortages in 1st World Countries.
Yes, the key word here is "chronic," such that the demand for oil substantially and permanently exceeds the supply of oil.
But even before that happens, if any of the following occurs as a result of soaring fuel costs, peak oil will have "effectively" arrived:
-- global stock market collapse
-- global hyperinflation causing currencies to become worthless
-- global hyperinflation + global depression causing economic meltdown
-- widespread panic causing a catastrophic run on banks
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 6:51 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
DoomWarrior,
I also think the money troubles will come first, if you want to call that the final sign. For third world countries, unaffordable food is the final sign, and it here, now, for them. I think it must go that way, as relative wealth will determine who gets their sign at any given time.
For the US, it could be a physical shortage of diesel that cripples transport. "Here's yer sign!" per Jeff Foxworthy.
Couldn't resist that. _________________ Local fix-it guy..
Joined: Nov 07, 2005 Posts: 553 Location: London, UK
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 3:23 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
vision-master wrote:
Remember, we had fuel shortages in the 70's and it happened pretty quick.
Peak Oil production in the good ol USA.
But they were in real terms a "manufactured" shortage. The basic point of Peak Oil is that supply will still be available. The problem lies in how much that supply will cost.
The issues of Peak Oil are not totally inclusive of oil running out. EROEI and the simple ability to be able to afford fuel will be the tell tale signs of TSHTF.
I think in simple terms, if you can afford it then there will be no shortage. Oil producers will always be willing to sell to someone equally willing enough to purchase. Regardless of cost, but for those that can't afford it. Tough titty. _________________ THE FUTURE IS HISTORY!
Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 2615 Location: The Entropisphere
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 3:32 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
Last sign,
POTUS wrote:
My fellow Americans. I come to you with sober news. World wide production of crude oil has hit its historical height and we are producing less oil today than yesterday. Tomorrow, the world will produce even less oil than today. This decline is irreversible but we retain the ability to overcome it.
blah blah blah blah blah
_________________ "Against stupidity the gods themselves contend in vain."
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