Posted: Sat May 31, 2008 8:56 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
Revi wrote:
I don't think it is a necessity for everybody. You can move very close to your job and ride a bicycle, and heat your house with wood. You can even get one of these and drive for .25 a day.
Think that through. What if everyone did as you suggest? What about the myriad of jobs that are supported by these people who move and stop driving?
Hmm? _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Sat May 31, 2008 9:04 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
JoeW wrote:
There will be some at the pump, but you just won't buy as much when it's $10/gallon as you do now.
Oh? I am a general contractor. For my business, I have no choice but to buy as much as I need. Every mile I drive is business related.
And you envision no day of shortages or rationing?
Quote:
When I look around at all the gluttonous consumption surrounding me in the US, I have to disagree with the statement that oil is a necessity. A certain amount per capita is, of course... but not the ridiculous quantities we currently enjoy.
But every drop of that gluttonous consumption goes to support somebody's job or business. Every drop is bought and paid for before it is gobbled up. Whose jobs do you suggest we discard to cut consumption? _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Sat May 31, 2008 9:11 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
MonteQuest wrote:
Revi wrote:
I don't think it is a necessity for everybody. You can move very close to your job and ride a bicycle, and heat your house with wood. You can even get one of these and drive for .25 a day.
Think that through. What if everyone did as you suggest? What about the myriad of jobs that are supported by these people who move and stop driving?
Hmm?
Everyone isn't about to do anything I suggest. There are new jobs that will be created if people start investing in a green economy. The path we're on now isn't going to work. Those jobs won't be there anyway. GM and Ford are laying off thousands. Building electric cars could employ thousands. The economy is going through a horrible disruption anyway. Wind could employ lots of electricians. Solar and energy efficiency is a growing field. I feel sorry for those who work in fossil fuel dependent industries, but I am not sorry enough to spend my hard earned money to support a dying industry. I'd rather invest in renewables.
As for the people who have to move, that's the way it works. All that suburban housing was built during the fossil fuel age, and it will become obsolete in the near future. Moving to a walkable neighborhood may become impossible for many people. They will be stuck out there in their ranch houses. They will have to make the best of it, and learn how to ride the bus. _________________ Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
Posted: Sat May 31, 2008 9:22 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
Revi wrote:
There are new jobs that will be created if people start investing in a green economy. The path we're on now isn't going to work. Those jobs won't be there anyway. GM and Ford are laying off thousands. Building electric cars could employ thousands. The economy is going through a horrible disruption anyway. Wind could employ lots of electricians. Solar and energy efficiency is a growing field. I feel sorry for those who work in fossil fuel dependent industries, but I am not sorry enough to spend my hard earned money to support a dying industry. I'd rather invest in renewables.
But new jobs take energy to create. Just because you change the end use of energy from GM and Ford to "green" businesses doesn't create any new energy. In fact, if it becomes a rapidly growing field, it becomes a new energy "consumer."
Where is this new energy going to come from in a declining energy environment? What does without so we can build renewables?
The EPR on solar and wind systems is not immediate. Until they pay back the energy required to create them, they are just new sources of consumption competing with exisiting demand.
Renewables are going to be very costly. Off shore wind turbines have jumped 48% in 3 years. Land-based 74% according to the recent Danish study. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Sat May 31, 2008 9:34 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
I think you are probably right, Monte. I just re-read your post from 2004 on the slow slide. The law of diminishing horizons pretty much says we'll never make enough now to get big projects off the ground. Every time we start something the cost overruns will make it more and more difficult to finish it.
I know how dire the situation is, but I choose to put a good face on it and go with the renewable energy solution, in our own household.
I know that the chances of success are slight, but what other choice do we have? We can only live one day at a time. The future may be bleak, but we are living a little better because of renewables right now.
On Thursday I awoke, listened to the radio and charged my cell phone from the PV system. I took a solar powered shower with water that was over 130 degrees heated by the sun. I went to school and my friend Art taught my students how to hook up the solar panel we're putting on the car we're building. After school I went over to Art's shop and we zoomed around in the two cars he has built, while my friend Nelson filmed us for a promotional video.
Solar has become a kind of a lifestyle. Some people use fossil fuels to amuse themselves. I use solar.
I know the world could end tomorrow, but it's sure sweet right now in the May sunshine. _________________ Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
Joined: Oct 15, 2005 Posts: 1472 Location: Portland, Oregon
Posted: Sat May 31, 2008 9:34 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
MonteQuest wrote:
Revi wrote:
There are new jobs that will be created if people start investing in a green economy. The path we're on now isn't going to work. Those jobs won't be there anyway. GM and Ford are laying off thousands. Building electric cars could employ thousands. The economy is going through a horrible disruption anyway. Wind could employ lots of electricians. Solar and energy efficiency is a growing field. I feel sorry for those who work in fossil fuel dependent industries, but I am not sorry enough to spend my hard earned money to support a dying industry. I'd rather invest in renewables.
But new jobs take energy to create. Just because you change the end use of energy from GM and Ford to "green" businesses doesn't create any new energy. In fact, if it becomes a rapidly growing field, it becomes a new energy "consumer."
Where is this new energy going to come from in a declining energy environment? What does without so we can build renewables?
The EPR on solar and wind systems is not immediate. Until they pay back the energy required to create them, they are just new sources of consumption competing with exisiting demand.
Renewables are going to be very costly. Off shore wind turbines have jumped 48% in 3 years. Land-based 74% according to the recent Danish study.
Monte great to see you here once in a while. I'm also here only once in a while lately.
I have a thought exercise that I haven't quite worked out yet.
I agree with you that excessive petroleum based consumption helps create jobs for people and that conservation and demand destruction will necessarily lead to rising unemployment.
But you go on to say that any "green" job requires energy to create. I have to disagree with you there...
If we shift from, say, industrial ag based labor to manual labor such as organic farming, isn't there the potential to create a whole new class of jobs requiring a much less intensive degree of energy consumption?
Again I'm fleshing it out so I'd be interested in your take...
Joined: Oct 15, 2005 Posts: 1472 Location: Portland, Oregon
Posted: Sat May 31, 2008 10:20 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
Homesteader wrote:
Thuja,
Wouldn't the savings there be used up by the growing asian economies? Jeveon's Paradox?
Certainly Jevon's Paradox applies here and any conservation measures here will simply allow fossil fuels to be consumed in greater amount by another nation (Chindia).
But the question is more one of Powerdown. In a world where we are forced to cut petroluem consumption, will a new class of manual labor jobs develop appear as a way of supplanting machine based labor.
For example- at some point it will become cheaper for 10 men to dig a ditch with shovels then to use a diesel consuming tractor with one high paid tractor driver. I'm not saying this is a great thing- it simply means you will replace industrial jobs with low paying serf labor that will barely allow people to feed themselves. But...a job will be a job in the future...
Joined: Apr 12, 2007 Posts: 1162 Location: Central NC
Posted: Sat May 31, 2008 10:31 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
Ah, okay. I read your post as a savings in one area could be invested in another ie: renewables.
Seems like if it gets to the point where manual ditch digging is more cost effective and hence wide-spread we will back in the 1800's. At least in terms of that ditch.
Joined: Oct 15, 2005 Posts: 1472 Location: Portland, Oregon
Posted: Sat May 31, 2008 10:42 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
Homesteader wrote:
Ah, okay. I read your post as a savings in one area could be invested in another ie: renewables.
Seems like if it gets to the point where manual ditch digging is more cost effective and hence wide-spread we will back in the 1800's. At least in terms of that ditch.
Well manual labor was just one example. Humans have been ingenious with non-fossil fuel based machines for millenia. You could have a cllass of workers building and operating non-electric windmills, or designing wooden rainwater catchment systems.
Perhaps people will be able to incorporate some sort of low level electric systems that require no fossil fuel inputs (is that even possible?).
But the idea is that whole classes of new workers will develop. Without fossil fuel based machines, we will need massive numbers of people to accomplish what the machines did before...
Posted: Sat May 31, 2008 10:51 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
Monte and Thuja are back in the mix! We are deeply honored. Please darken our doors.
Monte is, as almost always, basically right here. But just as the rodent-like ancestors of mammals scratched out (maybe) a humble existence as the dinosaurs died around them, many of us hope that there is some place for a thuja-like sustainable existence for some enlightened few who will learn all the right lessons from the gathering cataclysm.
My heart wants to believe it; my head tells me it ain't gonna happen.
Joined: Apr 12, 2007 Posts: 1162 Location: Central NC
Posted: Sat May 31, 2008 10:52 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
thuja wrote:
Homesteader wrote:
Ah, okay. I read your post as a savings in one area could be invested in another ie: renewables.
Seems like if it gets to the point where manual ditch digging is more cost effective and hence wide-spread we will back in the 1800's. At least in terms of that ditch.
Well manual labor was just one example. Humans have been ingenious with non-fossil fuel based machines for millenia. You could have a cllass of workers building and operating non-electric windmills, or designing wooden rainwater catchment systems.
Perhaps people will be able to incorporate some sort of low level electric systems that require no fossil fuel inputs (is that even possible?).
But the idea is that whole classes of new workers will develop. Without fossil fuel based machines, we will need massive numbers of people to accomplish what the machines did before...
Several decades ago when I was a kid I remember reading about the building of the Union-Pacific Railroad. If memory serves as the railroad construction went through the communities the locals would show up with their teams of horses, oxen or mules. I specifically remember where they were all pulling scrapers and building up the bed, going around and around in a big circle gradually moving the earth from where it was to where it needed to be.
It stuck with me as a great example of community. I don't see it working in today's environment, but perhaps tomorrows.
Joined: Oct 15, 2005 Posts: 1472 Location: Portland, Oregon
Posted: Sat May 31, 2008 11:07 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
dohboi wrote:
Monte and Thuja are back in the mix! We are deeply honored. Please darken our doors.
Monte is, as almost always, basically right here. But just as the rodent-like ancestors of mammals scratched out (maybe) a humble existence as the dinosaurs died around them, many of us hope that there is some place for a thuja-like sustainable existence for some enlightened few who will learn all the right lessons from the gathering cataclysm.
My heart wants to believe it; my head tells me it ain't gonna happen.
Well its nice to see your mug around here too dohboi...
But I'm surprised that you appreciate my vision of millions of manual labor serfs with not enough food as something to hope for.
But the numbers...our numbers...have to go down...a lot...
After that who knows? A rebirth? A rennaisance? I'm sure humans will squabble and grump along as best we can no matter what tools we have in our hands...
Posted: Sat May 31, 2008 11:31 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
Revi wrote:
I think you are probably right, Monte. I just re-read your post from 2004 on the slow slide. The law of diminishing horizons pretty much says we'll never make enough now to get big projects off the ground. Every time we start something the cost overruns will make it more and more difficult to finish it.
I know how dire the situation is, but I choose to put a good face on it and go with the renewable energy solution, in our own household.
Locally, those endeavors can mean a lot. Although success makes you a target.
It's almost a necessity that we waste so much. We built an economy upon being wasteful. We have entire industries geared to dealing with our wastefulness. It employs millions.
What a wakeup call this is going to be. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Sat May 31, 2008 11:35 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
I guess my point, if I had one, was that it is not the numbers that survive that will be crucial (beyond a certain minimum). The important thing to me is what (if any) memes or mindsets will survive. If any remnant thinks, "Well, we kinda blew it, but only because we didn't work hard enough to totally dominate the planet and every last bit of life on it!" It that is the attitude that survives, I'm not sure that survival is a good thing.
As to serfs, most of us are already debt serfs, many working two mind-deadening jobs just to keep up with payments. Slavery was mostly restricted to Blacks in the US. That turned into its slight variant, sharecropping, and was extended to "white trash." Debt servitude extends well into the middle class of all races, an we are seeing it's crushing effects on Americans as the housing and debt crisis unfold. What we slide into next will merely be an extention of where we have already been going for a long, long time. (And don't get me started on the world-record numbers per capita we have behind bars--talk about modern servitude!) And of course plain ol' fashioned slavery has had a huge resurgence in the last few decades.
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
