Posted: Sat May 31, 2008 11:36 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
thuja wrote:
But you go on to say that any "green" job requires energy to create. I have to disagree with you there...
If we shift from, say, industrial ag based labor to manual labor such as organic farming, isn't there the potential to create a whole new class of jobs requiring a much less intensive degree of energy consumption?
Sure. It's called powerdown. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Sat May 31, 2008 11:40 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
thuja wrote:
For example- at some point it will become cheaper for 10 men to dig a ditch with shovels then to use a diesel consuming tractor with one high paid tractor driver. I'm not saying this is a great thing- it simply means you will replace industrial jobs with low paying serf labor that will barely allow people to feed themselves. But...a job will be a job in the future...
Yes, Peak oil will force people to view the world differently, to a degree almost unimaginable to those who scarcely understand the concept just now.
Being 'green' and 'environmentally friendly' will have next to nothing to do with it. Being 'rich' might not help much either, although it probably will not hurt.
Priorities will shift to self-sufficiency and sustainability. The decades to come will see many things that are now done by machines handed back over to human beings, for the eminently pragmatic reason that it will again be cheaper to feed, house, clothe, and train a human being to do those things than it will be to make, fuel, and maintain a machine to do them. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Sat May 31, 2008 11:44 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
thuja wrote:
But the numbers...our numbers...have to go down...a lot...
That's what few seem to grasp. Even a powerdown requires a reduction of the population. If we couldn't create these numbers with manual labor, we can't sustain them with it. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: Oct 15, 2005 Posts: 1475 Location: Portland, Oregon
Posted: Sat May 31, 2008 11:47 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
dohboi wrote:
I guess my point, if I had one, was that it is not the numbers that survive that will be crucial (beyond a certain minimum). The important thing to me is what (if any) memes or mindsets will survive. If any remnant thinks, "Well, we kinda blew it, but only because we didn't work hard enough to totally dominate the planet and every last bit of life on it!" It that is the attitude that survives, I'm not sure that survival is a good thing.
As to serfs, most of us are already debt serfs, many working two mind-deadening jobs just to keep up with payments. Slavery was mostly restricted to Blacks in the US. That turned into its slight variant, sharecropping, and was extended to "white trash." Debt servitude extends well into the middle class of all races, an we are seeing it's crushing effects on Americans as the housing and debt crisis unfold. What we slide into next will merely be an extention of where we have already been going for a long, long time. (And don't get me started on the world-record numbers per capita we have behind bars--talk about modern servitude!) And of course plain ol' fashioned slavery has had a huge resurgence in the last few decades.
Yes if you want to look at the positive aspect, I think it is possible to return to a more sustainable way of living once population numbers are down and the fossil fuel bubble is over. We will not be able to dominate our landscape so totally as we have been doing the last 100 years. We will have to live in accordance with the seasons, our local geography and the rhythm of day and night.
We will have to relearn the topgraphy of our immediate environs...the way the sun shines, where plants grow best, what good soil looks like, how to diferentiate good craftmanship from worthless schlock. Scarcity will teach us new skills that we have forgotten. Those are good memes to rediscover.
So yeah- there's some good things in there...I won't describe the doom since that is so easy to do...
Joined: Jun 20, 2007 Posts: 498 Location: USS Poland
Posted: Sun Jun 01, 2008 1:30 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
btu2012 wrote:
Revi wrote:
I have noticed that the rich people around here are getting bigger and bigger pickup trucks, while us middle class and poor are having a hard time keeping our small cars running.
Yeah, the social inequality levels are beginning to approach those of a banana republic. Time for people to remember that they have the power to vote.
Btu
For whom?
Big Business Corporation Party (R) or Big Business Corporation Party (D)?
Last time I checked the inequalities are steadily rising from Reagan era. _________________ The poor complain; they always do,
But that's just idle chatter.
Our system brings rewards to all,
At least to all who matter.
Posted: Sun Jun 01, 2008 9:11 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
We're in real trouble here in Maine already. We just had our peak oil group meeting today. We talked about heating oil and how unaffordable it's getting. Three of the people at the meeting are talking about moving out of the state next winter. They kept their thermostats at 55 and froze last winter. People can't afford to live here any more. This winter the price of a gallon of oil looks like it will be twice what it was last winter.
The Governor is concerned, but I don't know how much he can do. He talked about getting off of oil. He said the only oil he wants to use is olive oil. He's pushing for alternatives. Solar, tidal, biomass and wind all work in Maine. Maybe they will help ameliorate the downward slide. Maybe. _________________ Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
Posted: Mon Jun 02, 2008 11:38 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
misterno wrote:
In free markets there is no shortage of any kind on any item because we have exchanges.
Whenever there is an item be it oil or iron ore or orange juice or whatever is short on supply, price goes up and demand goes down and the equilibrium is reached.
In the case of oil the the demand for oil in the world is not down so price keeps going up till it hits the equilibrium.
In short, there can never be shortages in free markets. Except temporary situations like war, hurricane etc
Economics is idiocy. Let me illustrate.
Joe has a job that is 40 miles away. It allows him to live frugally, but he never has more than 50 dollars a month left over to save for a rainy day or use for unexpected costs. Joe's car gets 25 mpg.
Gas goes from 2.50 to 4.00 a gallon. Joe buys 3.2 gallons a day x 2.50 x 22 work days = $176. Now, Joe buys 3.2 gallons a day x 4.00 x 22 work days = $281. Joe is now going in the hole $55 a month.
Joe starts car pooling with Bob. Bob is now saving a little money again. $36 a month.
Joe doesn't like commuting. Now he can't stop and fish on the way home. Joe wants to drive his own car.
Joe's demand still exists. Joe simply CAN'T buy as much as he wants.
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