Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 12:43 am Post subject: Re: Tesla Electric Car
sameu wrote:
I'm all for the electric car, too bad we lost 20 years
nice technology and all but this is a good example where the optimists forget the 'order of magnitude' factor
you just don't replace hundred of millions cars overnight it takes decades, further more, all these new cars will need metal, copper, plastics, will need to be manufactured is heated/cooled factories...
It's not a solution
Fortunately, oil production doesn't drop to zero overnight either. Sure, new vehicles take a long time to turn around, but in terms of switching from liquid fuels to alternatives, China, who many have said will only exacerbate demand, has seen huge increases in the sale of two wheel EVs. Sure, what we'll likely spend in Iraq could've bought a small efficient EV for everyone in America, but then where would all those big whigs make their addition billions in profits?
In any event, expect to see way more in the way of EVs worldwide if oil goes to ~$200-250/bbl, which it should in the next decade if we are at or near peak.
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 12:47 am Post subject: Re: Tesla Electric Car
eastbay wrote:
Why are we even bothering to discuss a toy for the rich anyhow? I mean, even Graeme on a very optimistic day won't touch this silly nonsense.
Because if EVs are competing with high end low volume vehicles, odds are they could compete with high volume normal cars in mass production. That being said, they aren't probably produced because they aren't as profitable, but eventually, oil will get to the price (unless of course we don't see peak for decades) where even in low volume, they'll have such a big cost advantage over most conventional vehicles that large automakers will be forced to incorporate electrification into their vehicles in some way of face extinction. _________________
Joined: Aug 18, 2005 Posts: 525 Location: Belgium, Europe
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 9:29 am Post subject: Re: Tesla Electric Car
yesplease wrote:
Fortunately, oil production doesn't drop to zero overnight either. Sure, new vehicles take a long time to turn around, but in terms of switching from liquid fuels to alternatives, China, who many have said will only exacerbate demand, has seen huge increases in the sale of two wheel EVs. Sure, what we'll likely spend in Iraq could've bought a small efficient EV for everyone in America, but then where would all those big whigs make their addition billions in profits?
In any event, expect to see way more in the way of EVs worldwide if oil goes to ~$200-250/bbl, which it should in the next decade if we are at or near peak.
only problem is that purchasing power is already declining in my country and the eurozone as a whole
my guess is that most people will simply not have the money, or won't be willing to make big investements when oil is at $200-250 _________________ www.peakoil.be
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 9:51 am Post subject: Re: Tesla Electric Car
eastbay wrote:
I thought it cost $100,000. Why are we even bothering to discuss a toy for the rich anyhow? I mean, even Graeme on a very optimistic day won't touch this silly nonsense.
Because the new technology always starts with the rich.
Some good examples:
First Plasma TVs - $25000 for a 40"
First PCs - $10,000 for a glorified calculator
First TVs - One or two per neighborhood if any at all
First Cars - only a toy for the rich
In the end, let the Rich pay for the RND of their new toys. Me, I'll wait till its 1/20th the price they pay for it.
Joined: Mar 29, 2008 Posts: 70 Location: Ashland,OR
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 10:54 am Post subject: Re: Tesla Electric Car
It is a wicked car. With a poor buissness model.
(you can't 'job it out' building vehicles)
Silicon vally execs looking for the next internet bubble.
I get irked at the company, they should be proud of using alan coconie's(sp) motor drive, it is the most sophisticated in the world.
Alan did the motor on the EV-1. At least alan is making money off these guys.
Joined: Dec 06, 2005 Posts: 833 Location: Stopped at the border.
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 11:15 am Post subject: Re: Tesla Electric Car
cube wrote:
Starvid wrote:
cube wrote:
However I've said it before and I'll say it again. Until I can walk into a car dealership and buy an EV car for cheaper than an ICE car:
I will never buy an EV car.
I think my opinion represents 95% of the population.
Don't you think electric cars deserve a certain price premium considering their much lower operation and maintenance costs? At least according to discounted cash flow analysis. Bu how many people do a DCFA when they buy a car?
That sounds fair enough. For example if somebody built a $20,000 EV car that had the same performance characteristics as a $12,000 ICE car then yeah I think that sounds like a good deal. However my gut feeling tells me that will never happen.
I'm not a fan of EV cars. If things got really bad for me financially speaking and I needed a car.... I sure as hell wouldn't go out and buy a $90K or $60K or even a $30K EV car. I'd just buy a used ICE car for $7,000.
I agree with you, Cube, there are plenty of high gas mileage used cars out there to help people. I wouldn't give them even an $8,000 premium. I would hold that premium to about $2,000 on average. So, I guess I wouldn't pay more than $14,000 for what would be a $12,000 ICE car. It isn't going to happen with batteries. Ultracapacitors can do it, but that is probably a few years away. _________________ "Hope encourages men to take risks; men in a strong position may follow her without ruin, if not without loss. But when they stake all that they have to the last coin (for she is a spendthrift), she reveals her real self in the hour of failure."
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 12:39 pm Post subject: Re: Tesla Electric Car
Seeing as we are hanging out on a morally ambivalent discussion board here, why not just invest in a cheap replica hand gun, and steal it for the cost of said hand gun, from a homosexual rich enough to buy one?
You might also consider shipping the stolen gaycar to europe and turn a nice profit: as we all know only leftist, greenie homosexuals live in europe. its almost like a chic business model for a nice good ol' redneckked doomer, who is of a strict and outspoken ultraheterosexual tendency in the sack. (ie. flag worshipping closet fag.)
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 2:14 pm Post subject: Re: Tesla Electric Car
sameu wrote:
only problem is that purchasing power is already declining in my country and the eurozone as a whole
my guess is that most people will simply not have the money, or won't be willing to make big investements when oil is at $200-250
It depends on payback time, since as long as the savings outweigh the cost of the vehicle loan, then it's still available for most. That, and there's still a great deal of discretionary spending for most. With prices where they are now, a home conversion is definitely financially worthwhile down to the low three dollar per gallon range, with mass-production undoubtedly being cheaper. As oil climbs that gap will only increase. _________________
Joined: Dec 18, 2004 Posts: 4131 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 2:52 pm Post subject: Re: Tesla Electric Car
FoxV wrote:
eastbay wrote:
I thought it cost $100,000. Why are we even bothering to discuss a toy for the rich anyhow? I mean, even Graeme on a very optimistic day won't touch this silly nonsense.
Because the new technology always starts with the rich.
Some good examples:
First Plasma TVs - $25000 for a 40"
First PCs - $10,000 for a glorified calculator
First TVs - One or two per neighborhood if any at all
First Cars - only a toy for the rich
In the end, let the Rich pay for the RND of their new toys. Me, I'll wait till its 1/20th the price they pay for it.
yesplease and FoxV, good point.... but we now have the means to mass produce an electric car (less power and range, but still fine for most urban uses) but the Big Companies refuse to do so. If they did make one in the 10,000 to 15,000 price range then it would be worth talking about. But this 100 grand Tesla is really annoying. _________________ Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 5:05 pm Post subject: Re: Tesla Electric Car
cube wrote:
yesplease wrote:
...With prices where they are now, a home conversion is definitely financially worthwhile down to the low three dollar per gallon range,....
I'd love to see pictures of your EV home converted car.
D00d, trolling is one thing, but ease up on the creepy requests. First yer asking for piks of a car, then before yer victim knows it, it's ASL and whatnot. Until now I've wondered why everyone's been in such an uproar about predators online. _________________
Joined: Mar 28, 2005 Posts: 399 Location: Northern California, USA
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 8:40 pm Post subject: Re: Tesla Electric Car
So the tesla costs $90,000. If you drive it for 100,000 miles and an ICE two seater will cost you $15,000.
Assuming the electricity cost to charge it is negligeble and the two seater gets 35mpg. You'll break even on gas is at $26.25/gallon. If the ICE got 10mpg break even would be $8.75/gallon.
At $50,000 for the 35mpg ICE the breakeven would be $8.75/Gallon and the breakeven for the 10mpg ICE would be $5.00/gallon.
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 8:56 pm Post subject: Re: Tesla Electric Car
The fifteen grand new car won't go 0-60 in four seconds, so if you're comparing stuff you might as well use similar vehicles IMO. Along the same lines, a free beater is certainly cheaper than a $15,000 car, but comparing them in terms of cost isn't exactly kosher since the beater could have the floor rusted out and maybe do 60mph on a good day. _________________
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 10:46 pm Post subject: Re: Tesla Electric Car
GM made an electric vehicle (see: "who killed the electric car?) and it was quite nice they said. But they killed it for whatever reason.
Why don't they start to produce the same thing right now?
At least they could compete with something.
I think many people would buy an electric car if they could buy a cheap used one, but you have to buy them new.
It should come with a solar panel , at least here in the Sunshine State OZ.
Joined: Mar 29, 2008 Posts: 70 Location: Ashland,OR
Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 10:34 am Post subject: Re: Tesla Electric Car
abelardlindsay wrote:
So the tesla costs $90,000. If you drive it for 100,000 miles and an ICE two seater will cost you $15,000.
Assuming the electricity cost to charge it is negligeble and the two seater gets 35mpg. You'll break even on gas is at $26.25/gallon. If the ICE got 10mpg break even would be $8.75/gallon.
At $50,000 for the 35mpg ICE the breakeven would be $8.75/Gallon and the breakeven for the 10mpg ICE would be $5.00/gallon.
Not a terrable way to look at it, but the sticker shock at the dealer is the real clintcher. Gas gets to $10 a gallon, people will scream bloody murder for any alternitive.
You have to amortize the cost of the batts, a li-ion with outstanding battery management MIGHT last the lifetime of the vehicle. Or burst into flames 100 cycles into the pack. In lab conditions some companies get 3000+cycles out of a pack. The BMS (bat management sys) is a pain in the ass. There is no real standard. EE's(electronic enginears) are notoriously belt and suspender types, ya end up with a individual charger for every cell in a pack. A nightmare. Esp if you are running parrallell strings like tesla, there are realy alot of cells in there!
There are some realy amusing pics on the web of dell computers bursting into flames, the result of not managing individual cells on an early li-ion.
Motors rock, batts suck. Still true, mankind needs a major tecnological breakthough in energy storage, or we start turning the long pig on the spit...
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