Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: May 02, 2005 Posts: 3542 Location: On the ball
Posted: Sat Jun 07, 2008 5:43 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
DantesPeak wrote:
Not to mention that Morgan Stanley suddenly came to the conclusion Thursday that net imports (oil + oil products) into the US were less than needed to supply US oil product demands through the summer.
Missed that one! I'm off in search of link. _________________ "It's still all about energy!"
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sat Jun 07, 2008 5:51 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
MD wrote:
DantesPeak wrote:
Not to mention that Morgan Stanley suddenly came to the conclusion Thursday that net imports (oil + oil products) into the US were less than needed to supply US oil product demands through the summer.
The main reason for this many be that oil/oil product exports from the US to Chile have about tripled in 2008. I assume these exports are mostly diesel, based upon many various reports that stated this.
Chile has now cut taxes on diesel, making it likely that diesel demand from Chile will not fall (except seasonally) but increase even further.
Perhaps MS and GS (above) also saw this and updated their forecasts.
Quote:
Chilean Truckers End Strike Caused by Fuel Cost Jump
By Sebastian Boyd and Heather Walsh
June 6 (Bloomberg) -- Chilean trucking companies ended a three-day nationwide strike that sparked shortages of food and cut copper production, after the government agreed to cut their tax payments on diesel.
More than 30,000 trucking companies are resuming work today for the first time since the strike began on June 3 after the government said it will discount 80 percent of their diesel-tax payments as of July, said Diego Ramirez, a spokesman for the National Guild Confederation of Chilean Truck Owners.
``It's good news for the country,'' Transport Minister Rene Cortazar said early today in Santiago following seven hours of negotiations with trucking companies.
The accord will cost the government about $52 million, Finance Minister Andres Velasco said today. The day prior to the start of the strike, President Michelle Bachelet had pledged $1 billion for consumers in extra subsidies on diesel and other fuels in a bid to bolster economic growth and slow inflation.
Rising costs for food, fuel and energy helped push the annual inflation rate to 8.9 percent in May, the highest in more than 13 years. The price of diesel used to power trucks surged 78 percent in May from a year ago, according to Empresa Nacional del Petroleo, the state fuel company.
Last Updated: June 6, 2008 14:03 EDT
Bloomberg _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Sat Jun 07, 2008 7:42 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
DantesPeak said:
Quote:
The main reason for this many be that oil/oil product exports from the US to Chile have about tripled in 2008. I assume these exports are mostly diesel, based upon many various reports that stated this.
If the media can’t stomach the term Peak Oil, maybe they could tolerate a World Wide Oil MOI. It is starting to look like that with queue node points being reinforced here, and propped up there. Send a tanker here and ship some diesel there.
This is starting to look like the process of trying to bail out the Atlantic by spooning it into a five gallon bucket. It’s not going to work for long!
What a great week to be an energy analyst. Everyone in the office is crowded around your desk, asking you for your expert opinion on what the markets will do this week. The local papers are calling you for a statement. Maybe even Fox News is calling you for an interview.
The problem is, of course, you are clueless as to what is going to happen this week, just like the rest of us. This will not stop you from making a lot of statements and prognostications, though.
We at PO.com, just being a bunch of people on the internet, do not have that problem. We like to be accurate, but there are minimal consequences if we are wrong. Therefore, we can step out on a limb once in awhile, and take a risk, and if we are right, then it's brilliance, and if we are wrong, we just try again later.
So we will test a couple of theories this week. First, that the crude oil imports, which mysteriously disappeared into the Bermuda Triangle two weeks ago, are still low. Per the above, I have to go with a number around 9.5, although, there was some tropical disturbance in that area two weeks ago that could be having an effect right now. Also, unleaded imports will be only 1.1 mbpd, down from the 1.3 from last week, which is more like the 4-week moving average.
Secondly, that the refinery inputs were only minimally increased last week. II stuck with my little crude oil model above that says refinery inputs will be only about 15.6 (Dantespeak thinks refinery utilization will actually be lower this week, so this is a conservative forecast). Keep in mind that the error on this will probably be on the high side.
If these theories are right, we will see another big decrease in crude oil inventory, and the error is on the upside from that: If the refiners are running higher than 90%, and the imports are more like 9.2 like DP thinks, this inventory draw will be on the order of 8 or 9 million barrels.
I see a pretty big increase in distillate inventory, by the way, like we expect from seasonality, and a decrease in unleaded, under the assumption that we will not be saved by imports like we were last week.
Now we can sit back and wait for the fun to start. I think the analyst estimates will be all over the place this week, by the way.
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 6:24 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
I remember when finally decided to come out of the shadows and become a member so I could engage more with others on the site. My first forum post asked about this summer with a coming crunch and Pup55 said that is what some are waiting to see with production declines and refineries having to increase production, etc. Looks like we are headed that way and now the IEA report is starting to lean towards whats going on. I've got my fingers crossed that no Hurricanes hit the Gulf of Mexico this season or else it will get alot worse quickly.
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 12:39 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
U.S. crude oil stocks are expected to rise slightly in data the Department of Energy will release Wednesday, according to a preliminary Dow Jones Newswires survey of analysts.
Crude oil inventories are expected to rise by 100,000 barrels, while gasoline stocks may increase by 1.1 million barrels, according to the mean of seven analysts' forecasts.
Stocks of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, are on average expected to rise by 1.5 million barrels.
Traders mostly ruled out an end to the long-term uptrend, and expected a new high of around $150 per barrel to be reached in the coming weeks.
"The drop is a normal correction in an upward trend. The trend remains intact and bulls are determined to push prices higher, (which is) usually $15-$20 per cycle. So the next target should be around $145-$150," said Li Rong, an analyst with Shanghai-based Great Wall Futures.
"Morgan Stanley predicts crude will hit $150 by Independence Day (July 4). I'm thinking maybe it can be earlier than that." said Newedge's Furumi.
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 5:32 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Mquinon3 wrote:
My first forum post asked about this summer with a coming crunch and Pup55 said that is what some are waiting to see with production declines and refineries having to increase production, etc. Looks like we are headed that way and now the IEA report is starting to lean towards whats going on. I've got my fingers crossed that no Hurricanes hit the Gulf of Mexico this season or else it will get alot worse quickly.
The level of American imports will be related to servicing the needs after domestic Demand Destruction is accounted for ... not due to declining production. EIA announced today that Global monthly production records were set in December, February & May. _________________ www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
Joined: May 18, 2006 Posts: 4854 Location: Minneapolis, MN
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 5:42 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
FreddyH wrote:
Mquinon3 wrote:
My first forum post asked about this summer with a coming crunch and Pup55 said that is what some are waiting to see with production declines and refineries having to increase production, etc. Looks like we are headed that way and now the IEA report is starting to lean towards whats going on. I've got my fingers crossed that no Hurricanes hit the Gulf of Mexico this season or else it will get alot worse quickly.
The level of American imports will be related to servicing the needs after domestic Demand Destruction is accounted for ... not due to declining production. EIA announced today that Global monthly production records were set in December, February & May.
Quote:
Global Petroleum
The combination of rising consumption, further downward revisions in the supply outlook for countries outside of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and low surplus production capacity reinforce the perception that supply is having a difficult time keeping up with demand growth, accounting for much of the upward trend in oil prices. Consumption in countries outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) continues to grow rapidly, offsetting weaker consumption in OECD countries, especially the United States. Declining production in a number of non-OPEC nations, including Mexico, United Kingdom, and Norway, is largely offsetting increases in other countries. Slow growth in non-OPEC supply is coinciding with disruptions in supplies from some OPEC countries, such as Nigeria. Ongoing geopolitical concerns in several producing countries, including Venezuela and Iran, have contributed to oil price volatility.
The market remains concerned that the cushion of surplus production capacity of less than 2 million bbl/d (almost all located in Saudi Arabia) and/or stocks is insufficient to protect against possible changes in supply or consumption, especially as we enter the summer hurricane season. The absence of a Saudi commitment to add capacity beyond its current goal of 12.5 million bbl/d adds to the uncertainty about the adequacy of future supply capacity growth.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 5:43 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
FreddyH wrote:
Mquinon3 wrote:
My first forum post asked about this summer with a coming crunch and Pup55 said that is what some are waiting to see with production declines and refineries having to increase production, etc. Looks like we are headed that way and now the IEA report is starting to lean towards whats going on. I've got my fingers crossed that no Hurricanes hit the Gulf of Mexico this season or else it will get alot worse quickly.
The level of American imports will be related to servicing the needs after domestic Demand Destruction is accounted for ... not due to declining production. EIA announced today that Global monthly production records were set in December, February & May.
Care to supply some substantiation for your claim, or we just expected to take your word for it without proof? _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 6:01 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
vision-master quoted:
Quote:
The absence of a Saudi commitment to add capacity beyond its current goal of 12.5 million bbl/d adds to the uncertainty about the adequacy of future supply capacity growth.
Maybe we can convince FH to hold his breath until SA delivers their promise of 12.5mb/d.
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 6:18 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
DantesPeak wrote:
FreddyH wrote:
The level of American imports will be related to servicing the needs after domestic Demand Destruction is accounted for ... not due to declining production. EIA announced today that Global monthly production records were set in December, February & May.
Care to supply some substantiation for your claim, or we just expected to take your word for it without proof?
As well as the five new EIA records since December shown below (3 monthly & 2 quarterly), the global Annual record is poised to fall in light of the YTD.
Today's STEO goes on to report that substantial inventory builds occured in both March & May. Not surprisingly, there was a 1.3-mbd surplus in May.
KSA flow was 10.8-mbd in May. The monthly national record for global production is Russia's 11.5-mbd in 1987. This and the Saudi 11.2-mbd record of Feb/2006 are both poised to be broken in Q3/Q4. The Saudi boost of 300-kbd was spawned by field increases at Ghawar and others. The 2008 750-kbd MegaProject commisssions of Khursaniyah & Nuayyim are yet to flow:
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 6:33 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
vision-master wrote:
Quote:
Global Petroleum
The combination of rising consumption, further downward revisions in the supply outlook for countries outside of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and low surplus production capacity reinforce the perception that supply is having a difficult time keeping up with demand growth, accounting for much of the upward trend in oil prices.
The market remains concerned that the cushion of surplus production capacity of less than 2 million bbl/d (almost all located in Saudi Arabia) and/or stocks is insufficient to protect against possible changes in supply or consumption, especially as we enter the summer hurricane season. The absence of a Saudi commitment to add capacity beyond its current goal of 12.5 million bbl/d adds to the uncertainty about the adequacy of future supply capacity growth.
Unfortunately, "Perception" is not reality. The same STEO reports a 1.3-mbd supply surplus in May.
Both KSA & Saudi Aramco have been clear in annual analyst guidance since 2003 that 12.5-mbd crude capacity (10.5-mbd production) is the extent of their fifty year business plan. Expectations of higher flows are groundless and have been ridiculed by Saudi officials on an ongoing basis for five years. _________________ www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 6:37 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Thanks for your response.
I think what you are trying to say is that this additional 'production' (which apparently includes ethanol, gas to liquids, etc.) will meet our energy needs. Your conclusion about demand means that you are ignoring the fact that US net imports have fallen roughly twice as fast as demand - this year to date.
Of course this also means you don't believe the articles I posted from five seperate energy services that say none, repeat zero, incremental oil is coming from SA to the US in June - and in fact there will probably be less from there than in May. Albiet oil could show up from somewhere else, but we'll just have to see if it does. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 7:48 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
DantesPeak wrote:
Thanks for your response.
I think what you are trying to say is that this additional 'production' (which apparently includes ethanol, gas to liquids, etc.) will meet our energy needs. Your conclusion about demand means that you are ignoring the fact that US net imports have fallen roughly twice as fast as demand - this year to date.
Of course this also means you don't believe the articles I posted from five seperate energy services that say none, repeat zero, incremental oil is coming from SA to the US in June - and in fact there will probably be less from there than in May. Albiet oil could show up from somewhere else, but we'll just have to see if it does.
DP, clearly the 1.3-mbd supply surplus that went to inventory build in May was available to the USA if it wished to bid for this product. That the USA may be outbid by nations that in turn subsidize its citizens and/or may have greater surplus refining capacity than the USA is not my concern.
Today's orginal post was based on a premise of declining production and shortages. Today's STEO again confirms that these discussions in the public domain and especially within futures markets are based on "perceived" declines and shortages ... not any reality.
Earlier in the year, i postulated that acheivement of a 1.5-mbd supply surplus would precipitate a significant collapse in crude Price. Apparently, we came very close to that threshold in May and i am frankly baffled that Prices continue to rise in this environment.
Producers continue to be the beneficiary of these obscene windfalls that complement the price bubble. I do not attribute the bubble to speculator/hedging activities at this time. _________________ www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
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