Joined: Apr 16, 2008 Posts: 86 Location: Western PA, USA
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 8:50 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
I was wondering what causes imports to magically show up every year at this time to save the day? I thought the world was experiencing shortages in parts and could not export as much to us. Where is this crude oil coming from? About one to two months ago we only imported like 9.2 mbd, and now we import 9.8. What gives? Was it a tanker or two diverted because of the strike in France a few weeks back?
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1620 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 8:58 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
It's simple, we outbid for them. That's why the price typically rises from April through June. While we get barrels to drive around on, some poor farmers in Nigeria don't get fuel for their irrigation equipment, because they can't afford the price we bid up. _________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Joined: Apr 16, 2008 Posts: 86 Location: Western PA, USA
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 9:03 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
How sweet. Some blonde bimbo gets to drive her precious little angels around in her monster H2 to buy frankenstein food so her kids get bloated, while farmers in Nigeria suffer. Ain't this world grand?
Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 2:50 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
U.S. crude-oil inventories probably extended declines last week as refineries delayed deliveries because of high prices, a Bloomberg News survey indicated.
Crude-oil stockpiles probably fell 2.05 million barrels in the week ended July 4 from 299.8 million barrels, according to the median of responses by 12 analysts before an Energy Department report today.
Refineries probably operated at 89.2 percent of capacity last week, unchanged from the week before, according to the median of responses.
Analysts were split over whether gasoline stockpiles rose or fell. Supplies probably increased 50,000 barrels from 210.9 million barrels the prior week, according to the median of responses.
Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, probably rose 1.95 million barrels from 120.7 million barrels the prior week, according to the survey. It would be the ninth-straight rise.
Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 3:24 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
good work, Sketh
Quote:
Supplies probably increased 50,000 barrels
The difference between "even" and -.8 is basically rounding error in any of the three components of this number, so I am not too far off.
Anyway, DP is right, One of these weeks there is going to be a big shift in imports, and all of these numbers are going to be out of whack.
Quote:
what causes imports to magically show up every year at this time to save the day?
I agree with joeWP on this one too. All of the production scheduling for the refiners and other users of crude oil has to be determined several weeks in advance, in order to have crude supplies around when they are needed. The users have a little storage buffer, in case there is a delay of a few days on their shipments. So, the management in these multi-billion dollar facilities spend a lot of effort and money in making sure the supply is nice and reliable, if they think they are going to need the product.
As for the unleaded imports, I believe BP is mainly responsible. They have demand forecasts, not unlike my little spreadsheet that predicts demand based on seasonality, last year's demand, and a fudge factor to compensate for the higher prices. They also have to make a management decision: Should they run their refineries in Europe full-out, and ship fuel to the US, or should they start up their two giant refineries here, Texas City and Whiting, and produce it locally. They have done several billion dollars worth of work on these two plants over the past few years to get them to use cheaper crude oil without deadly explosions and fires, but as of yet, they have made the calculation that it is better to leave these units down, and import fuel, rather than run them here. These decisions are made based on comparative throughput rate, cost of operations (including crude oil costs), and other non-technical issues.
So, they see they are going to need X amount of unleaded, no problem for them to arrange to bring it in. I am singling out BP, because we know about those two big plants, but perhaps the other refiners have similar situations.
This year there has been very little news about refinery explosions etc. because utilization is running at about 89% rather thain 93 or 94 which is more normal, or 96 which is where we sometimes peak out during the summer.
Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 8:08 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
While we are waiting around this morning, here are a couple of graphs. The top one is the unleaded imports since 2004, which shows the erratic nature of the imports.
The second one makes more sense, it is the 4 week moving average of the imports. This approach smooths out the bumps a little bit and maybe gives a picture of what is actually happening.
What I am trying to figure out is the point at which the unleaded imports start to back off, if any. Hard to tell, based on this. In 2007, average imports fell off at the end of July, in a couple of weeks from now, potentially.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1620 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 8:41 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending July 4, 2008
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged nearly 15.5 million barrels per day
during the week ending July 4, up 75 thousand barrels per day from the previous
week's average. Refineries operated at 89.2 percent of their operable capacity
last week. Gasoline production fell last week, averaging 8.9 million barrels per
day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 4.6 million
barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 9.5 million barrels per day last week, down 621
thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude
oil imports have averaged nearly 10.1 million barrels per day, 82 thousand
barrels per day above the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline
imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last
week averaged nearly 1.2 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports
averaged 142 thousand barrels per day last week.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 5.9 million barrels from the previous week. At
293.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are below the lower boundary
of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories
increased by 0.9 million barrels last week, and are in the middle of the average
range. Finished gasoline inventories were unchanged last week while gasoline
blending components inventories increased during this same time. Distillate fuel
inventories increased by 1.8 million barrels, and are in the middle of the
average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by
2.6 million barrels last week but remain below the lower limit of the average
range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 3.3 million barrels
last week, and are near the bottom of the average range for this time of year.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged nearly 20.4
million barrels per day, down by 1.8 percent compared to the similar period last
year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 9.3 million
barrels per day, down by 2.1 percent from the same period last year. Distillate
fuel demand has averaged about 4.2 million barrels per day over the last four
weeks, up by 1.3 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is 2.2
percent lower over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period
last year.
_________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 9:01 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Sometimes the big picture can be truly amazing. As been said before: the largest wealth transfer in history:
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) earned $671 billion in net oil export revenues in 2007, a 10% increase from 2006. Saudi Arabia earned the largest share of these earnings, $194 billion, representing 29% of total OPEC revenues. On a per-capita basis, OPEC net oil export earnings reached $1,137, an 8% increase from 2006.
Through June, OPEC had earned an estimated $645 billion in net oil export earnings in 2008. Based on projections from the EIA, July 2008 Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO), OPEC net oil export revenues could be $1,251 billion in 2008 and $1,322 billion in 2009.
Not a bad week in forecasting. We were directionally pretty good on the lower crude oil imports (which were 9.5 instead of 9. and the algorithm we used for production is still pretty good.
The demand we use, the little "demand balance" calculation was the source of me being off on unleaded.
DP has predicted for awhile this decrease in imports, which has finally showed up, at least partially.
So, more fun in the markets.
I have shaken off those two bad weeks and am still at 54% vs. the pesky analysts, but I hate being off on unleaded.
Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 2:17 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
This may represent the initial reduction in imports due to the well known problems in Nigeria.
If that is so, we can expect similar values (or perhaps a trifle higher) for the next few (2 to 3) weeks, with consistent drawdowns in crude stocks.
Also, the US crude production is falling slightly, probably meaning that Blunder Horse is still not producing (even from the 1/5 field that should be operational).
Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 6:12 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Ming wrote:
This may represent the initial reduction in imports due to the well known problems in Nigeria.
If that is so, we can expect similar values (or perhaps a trifle higher) for the next few (2 to 3) weeks, with consistent drawdowns in crude stocks.
Also, the US crude production is falling slightly, probably meaning that Blunder Horse is still not producing (even from the 1/5 field that should be operational).
My information is that Blunderhorse has 1 well that is producing. I don't have any numbers yet but will try and get some. _________________ There will come a day when we would have wished to do a little evil for a greater good.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5500 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 6:45 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
HEADER_RACK wrote:
Ming wrote:
This may represent the initial reduction in imports due to the well known problems in Nigeria.
If that is so, we can expect similar values (or perhaps a trifle higher) for the next few (2 to 3) weeks, with consistent drawdowns in crude stocks.
Also, the US crude production is falling slightly, probably meaning that Blunder Horse is still not producing (even from the 1/5 field that should be operational).
My information is that Blunderhorse has 1 well that is producing. I don't have any numbers yet but will try and get some.
Yes, that's what I gathered from an article I posted last weekend.
However it's funny that US domestic production actually took a significant and unexpected 100,000 bpd drop last week.
I don't have much time to post this week, but I still expect oil imports in the four weeks to July 11 to average 9.75 mbpd and the four weeks after that to be 9.25 mbpd - with a possible slight improvement, weather permitting, after that.
I think we will be dusting off those official MOLs reports rather soon to see just how low we can go in crude stocks. Critically low levels are probably still at least a month away. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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and the algorithm we used for production is still pretty good.
