Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4415 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 7:05 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
North Slope oil production averaged 666,873 barrels per day in June, a 5.5 percent drop from May's average.
All the fields there, except Northstar, had less production in June, driven by a planned shutdown of the trans-Alaska oil pipeline at the end of the month and planned field maintenance.
The pipeline shutdown June 28-29 for 24 hours to replace a remote gate valve near Fairbanks and piping at Pump Station 9, said Michelle Egan, spokeswoman for Alyeska Pipeline Service Co., the oil-company consortium that runs the 800-mile pipeline. Pump Station 9 is the southern-most of the working pump stations, about 250 miles north of Valdez. Another maintenance shutdown is planned for next month.
North Slope production bottomed out at 250,001 barrels on June 28, according to the state Department of Revenue.
The biggest oil field, Prudhoe Bay, and its smaller satellite fields averaged 285,765 barrels a day in June, down 2.5 percent.
Kuparuk River, the second biggest field, averaged 142,547 barrels a day, down 4.7 percent. The total includes oil from the nearby Tabasco, Tarn and Meltwater satellite fields as well as from the West Sak field.
The Alpine field and its satellites averaged 112,036 barrels a day, down 2.7 percent.
The largest drop occurred at Lisburne, Point McIntyre and Niakuk, which combined for 21,951 barrels a day, down 37 percent. The Revenue Department said planned maintenance began at Lisburne on June 1 and production was depressed for half the month.
The second-biggest drop -- 21 percent -- was at the Milne Point field, which averaged 28,251 barrels a day. Scheduled maintenance there began June 28.
The Northstar field averaged 35,641 barrels a day, up 23 percent. Oil company BP had lowered Northstar output earlier this year for maintenance and its production is returning to pre-maintenance levels.
In Cook Inlet, oil production averaged 13,111 barrels a day, up 2 percent from May
???
adn.com _________________ "Oil is going up because we use too much oil, and the capacity to replace reserves is dwindling"
-President Bush 11/07/07
This week we will continue to monitor the import situation, and refinery utilization.
With the refinery margins still looking pretty weak, I have to say that we will start seeing people back off on their production, give everyone a day off around the holiday, and so I am estimating only 88% utilization, which is historically really low for this time of year. Using the little algorithm we developed based on last weeks crude oil inputs and distillates/unleaded ratio, we should see refinery inputs and production as indicated above.
I am swayed by Ming and DP's opinions that the imports will continue to back off as they did last week. Coupled with the 15.3 mbpd refinery inputs, imports of 9.7 will cause a pretty sizeable drop in crude oil inventory again this week. I am going to be higher than the analysts estimates, because of bad weather around the gulf of mexico two weeks ago.
I have to show you this graph. We did an unleaded demand model in early April, based on the prevailing conditions at the time, which were, about 0.5% decrease based on last year's demand, and "demand" defined the way we do, namely the calculated balance rather than products supplied.
For awhile, we were tuned into the actual demand being .25 or .3 mbpd lower than this model, and that was working out okay. Note that the last two weeks, the demand has been even lower..... up to .5 mbpd less than last year's value for the equivalent week.
So this week's demand prediction is just a little over 10 mbpd, and this, despite the low imports and low utilization, should lead to small inventory change, near flat.
The demand destruction is accelerating a little bit. This is what is keeping the inventory situation stable.
next week will be interesting--- Last year the equivalent week was one of the highest fuel consumption weeks of the year. We should get a really good gauge of how the high prices are keeping people from fueling up the Family Truckster for their annual road trip.
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 5:28 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Yes indeed pup. Keep up the good work. I'm trying to figure a reasonable lag time for oil inflation to truly impact the economy. Right now I'm guessing fuel inflation is taking a minimum 6 mo to 12+ mo to fully reach the consumer level. Folks can cut back on driving but with consumers running 2/3rds of the economy declining purchasing power is the big dog in the fight, IMHO.
Joined: Jan 11, 2005 Posts: 526 Location: southern Wisconsin
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 3:04 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Just got back from a trip to the vacation areas of Michigan and Wisconsin. Auto traffic is noticeably lighter. No trouble getting motel rooms without a reservation, either.
Very unusual. And not good for the tourist industry in these states.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5891 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 4:06 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
There was strong export demand for diesel late last week in NYC, so strong that the Colonial Pipeline (which runs into New Jersey near New York City) couldn't ship all the diesel requested. So I expect at least in the Northeast US distillate supplies won't be climbing as fast as seasonally normal.
Problems with Nigeria's oil exports continue. Shipments from an important terminal were delayed by one week today. This week's inventory report should more fully reflect the loss of Nigerian output that started a month ago, which improved somewhat in later June, and now has fallen back again.
I have no specific prediction for this week other than the fact there are indications that refiners intentionally cut back operations last week, so pup55's forecast of 88% utilization looks to be about on the mark.
Quote:
Nigeria Qua Iboe Jul/Aug Crude Loadings Disrupted
July 14, 2008: 01:14 PM EST
LONDON -(Dow Jones)- July and August crude oil loadings at Exxon Mobil Corp.'s (XOM) Nigerian Qua Iboe facility will be subject to delays of up to nine days, traders of West African crude said Monday, although the reasons for the disruption aren't clear.
A trader said he had been informed by ExxonMobil Friday that loadings from the 400,000 barrel-a-day field will be subject to delays of between five to six days for the first decade in August, rising to eight days for second-decade loadings, with third-decade delays expected between eight and nine days.
Local media reported earlier a possible oil spill in the area near Qua Iboe, a development that some linked to the Qua Iboe disruption.
Inquiries into what had caused the delays at Qua Iboe weren't answered by ExxonMobil, however.
Another trader of West African crude said he expected Qua's loading schedules would be pushed back further than already outlined.
Dow Jones/CNN _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1627 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 5:14 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
A Reuters poll ahead of weekly U.S. government inventory data forecast that U.S. crude stocks fell 1.2 million barrels last week. U.S. gasoline inventories were seen down 300,000 barrels while distillate stocks were seen up 1.9 million barrels.
IHT _________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 9:37 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
While imports have been the key for a while, I'm not sure whether we are directly competing with China at this point. It's my impression from reading pup, Ming, and DP's posts that imports of products (distillates, unleaded) come mainly from Europe, Mexico, and the Caribbean and not from wherever China might be getting them, but FWIW, came across this on Bloomberg well down the page and so thought I would post it just in case it is relevant and people missed it. Here's the whole article:
Quote:
China Increases June Diesel, Gasoline Imports to Ease Shortage
By Winnie Zhu
July 15 (Bloomberg) -- China, the world's second-largest energy consumer, increased diesel and gasoline imports last month to ease a supply shortfall on the domestic market.
Diesel imports rose to 960,000 metric tons, the highest in more than five years, the Customs General Administration of China said in an e-mailed statement today. Gasoline purchases surged to 282,996 tons, today's figures show. China didn't import any gasoline in June 2007.
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 5:07 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
ivanillich,
I don't know what sources China uses for product imports but I'm sure someone here will thow it out soon. But, with respect to Mexico, they are a big source of oil for the US but they are a net product importer with much coming from the US. Mexico long ago gave up trying to meet domestic demand by increasing refinery capacity.
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 5:48 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
I looked this up.. I was curious too....
Quote:
In a rare move in November, China actually imported some 24,000 tonnes from Singapore and South Korea, more than any month since Reuters data starts in 1999.
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 6:19 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
U.S. oil supplies probably fell last week as record prices discouraged buying by refiners, according to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts.
Crude stockpiles declined 2 million barrels in the week ended July 11 from 293.9 million barrels, according to the median of responses by six analysts before tomorrow's Energy Department report. Supplies had dropped 5.84 million barrels in last week's report, double the forecast.
Gasoline inventories probably gained 500,000 barrels from 211.8 million barrels the week before, the survey showed.
Inventories of distillate fuel, including heating oil and diesel, probably rose 2 million barrels from 122.5 million barrels. All the analysts predicted an increase.
Refineries probably operated at 89.3 percent of capacity, up 0.1 percentage point from the week before, the survey showed.
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 7:48 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
pup55 wrote:
For awhile, we were tuned into the actual demand being .25 or .3 mbpd lower than this model, and that was working out okay. Note that the last two weeks, the demand has been even lower..... up to .5 mbpd less than last year's value for the equivalent week.
So this week's demand prediction is just a little over 10 mbpd, and this, despite the low imports and low utilization, should lead to small inventory change, near flat.
The demand destruction is accelerating a little bit. This is what is keeping the inventory situation stable.
It seems like you are basing these numbers on oil imports, refinery utilization, and demand -- I think that the -575
drop in gasoline imports needs to be factored in, too. Did I miss that?
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 7:58 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
"The demand destruction is accelerating a little bit. This is what is keeping the inventory situation stable."
This just in:
"The Labor Department reported that soaring costs for gasoline and food pushed inflation at the wholesale level up by a bigger-than-expected 1.8 percent in June, leaving inflation rising over the past year at the fastest pace in more than a quarter-century.
Over the past 12 months, wholesale prices are up 9.2 percent, the largest year-over-year surge since June 1981, another period when soaring energy costs were giving the country inflation pains."
Looks like last year's price jump is starting to hit the market place in earnest. I would think many would be even more cautious about building too much inventory right now. Hmmm....worst since 1981. As recall that was the beginning of a demand destruction which led to $10/bbl oil in 1986. But we weren't knocking on PO's door in 1986 either.
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 8:47 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
GoghGoner wrote:
pup55 wrote:
For awhile, we were tuned into the actual demand being .25 or .3 mbpd lower than this model, and that was working out okay. Note that the last two weeks, the demand has been even lower..... up to .5 mbpd less than last year's value for the equivalent week.
So this week's demand prediction is just a little over 10 mbpd, and this, despite the low imports and low utilization, should lead to small inventory change, near flat.
The demand destruction is accelerating a little bit. This is what is keeping the inventory situation stable.
It seems like you are basing these numbers on oil imports, refinery utilization, and demand -- I think that the -575
drop in gasoline imports needs to be factored in, too. Did I miss that?
Oh, since this is estimating crude oil inventories, and not overall inventories you don't need to factor in gasoline imports. I see my mistake now.
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 4:38 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
hi, Gogh Goner
You can see the little calculation I do every week.
In general, I take the beginning inventory, plus the imports plus the domestic production, this gives the total available.
From that, subtract the "demand", and you get the ending inventory.
The "demand" calculation is a little tricky, but to make a long story short, in the products, the demand is a little higher than the products supplied.
For crude oil, the "demand" is the "crude oil provided to refineries".
I think the pesky analysts must be doing a very similar calculation.
either that or they are guessing off the seat of their pants.
I use a combination of the seasonality and/or last year's total, adjusted by a fudge factor based on news items or persuasion by some of the other posters for some of the demand and production data.
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 7:38 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
U.S. oil supplies probably fell last week as record prices discouraged buying by refiners. Supplies probably declined 2.2 million barrels in the week ended July 11 from 293.9 million the week before, according to the median of 10 responses by analysts surveyed before an Energy Department report at 10:35 a.m. Washington time today.
Gasoline stockpiles probably lost 100,000 barrels from 211.8 million barrels the week before, the survey showed. Distillate fuel, including heating oil and diesel, probably rose 2 million barrels from 122.5 million barrels the week before.
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