For a minute there I thought I had to get off my couch, when all the while the fact is we don't have to do anything much but keep things afloat for just a few decades more! In fact, we'd best shut up about PO, because if our offspring finds out we knew about it all along, they'll turn and wring our necks come 2036!
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5487 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 8:04 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
pup55 wrote:
Quote:
U.S. oil supplies probably fell last week as record prices discouraged buying by refiners. Supplies probably declined 2.2 million barrels in the week ended July 11 from 293.9 million the week before, according to the median of 10 responses by analysts surveyed before an Energy Department report at 10:35 a.m. Washington time today.
Gasoline stockpiles probably lost 100,000 barrels from 211.8 million barrels the week before, the survey showed. Distillate fuel, including heating oil and diesel, probably rose 2 million barrels from 122.5 million barrels the week before.
Daily reports and price trends still indicate that diesel exports remain strong in the Northeast and now the Gulf. So I would looking for less than 2 million barrel gain in distillates. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 6:33 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
DantesPeak wrote:
Daily reports and price trends still indicate that diesel exports remain strong in the Northeast and now the Gulf. So I would looking for less than 2 million barrel gain in distillates.
Ragged rise in local gasoline-6-10 cents-yesterday.
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4272 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:43 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Looks like huge imports saved the day... _________________ "Oil is going up because we use too much oil, and the capacity to replace reserves is dwindling"
-President Bush 11/07/07
The market undoubtedly will view this as bearish, mostly in light of the increase in crude oil inventory caused 100% by the extra imports, almost a million barrels per day.
The refinery utilization is essentially flat from last week, and the emphasis was on distillate production, since the margins are better. Right now, the refiners are running a pretty light schedule, and heavy on the distillates.
Demand for unleaded was just about what we predicted, at 10.1 about a half million barrels per day lower than last year. The crude oil inputs and product outputs were pretty consistent with our overall model.
So, thanks to the imports, all is well for another week....
until they dry up....
or until it gets windy down there, like 135 mph....
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:48 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
pup55 said:
Quote:
The market undoubtedly will view this as bearish, mostly in light of the increase in crude oil inventory caused 100% by the extra imports, almost a million barrels per day.
The Bulls will really be trampling the crap grass over this. Ben & Buddies will get another week in the sun. But where did this extra crude come from. With Nigeria having a bigger revolution than usual this week, Mexico going down the tubes by the day and the Saudi still not having their new (old) wonder field on line, it is surprising.
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 10:00 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
shortonoil wrote:
pup55 said:
The Bulls will really be trampling the crap grass over this. Ben & Buddies will get another week in the sun. But where did this extra crude come from. With Nigeria having a bigger revolution than usual this week, Mexico going down the tubes by the day and the Saudi still not having their new (old) wonder field on line, it is surprising.
Is India running out of money? Someone must be?
There is no punishment for wrong info turned into the EIA.
"What I see as far more likely is that the EIA numbers are pure crap! But then those are the only numbers we have."
-Darwinian/Ron Patterson TOD
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 2395 Location: South of Atlanta
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 10:17 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
This move today and these numbers just don't sit well with me. If anything the giant/rapid swings in crude markets have me more worried than ever. The traders are simply learning to take more risk on the volatility I fear. Any swings down are being misinterpreted as bubble bursting rather wishfully i think.
There is a very small part of my brain right now that is in alarm mode about the data we see. Just how possible would it be or how easy to manipulate those numbers a bit one way or another? I would not put it past TPTB to attempt things like that once imports start declining regularly.
Just how long are the imports going to keep magically "Saving the day" ??
Joined: Apr 08, 2007 Posts: 459 Location: Cleburne, TX, USA
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 11:01 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
It is not helpful to speculate that TPTB are manipulating the EIA numbers. After all, many folks believe speculation is running up the price and while we attempt to rebuke such wishful thinking, we should not do so by repeating their mistakes and tactics.
Perhaps we'll learn why imports were so high this week, perhaps we won't. Regardless, that is where we are now and grasping for excuses just makes us look desperate to justify our position. _________________ My new Peak Oil T-Shirt Design
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 12:41 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
AirlinePilot wrote:
This move today and these numbers just don't sit well with me. If anything the giant/rapid swings in crude markets have me more worried than ever. The traders are simply learning to take more risk on the volatility I fear. Any swings down are being misinterpreted as bubble bursting rather wishfully i think.
There is a very small part of my brain right now that is in alarm mode about the data we see. Just how possible would it be or how easy to manipulate those numbers a bit one way or another? I would not put it past TPTB to attempt things like that once imports start declining regularly.
Just how long are the imports going to keep magically "Saving the day" ??
One thing now that this report is public its pretty obvious that this information has been known by some big players in the market for the last two weeks.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 2948 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 1:33 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
shortonoil wrote:
But where did this extra crude come from? With Nigeria having a bigger revolution than usual this week, Mexico going down the tubes by the day and the Saudi still not having their new (old) wonder field on line, it is surprising.
Is India running out of money? Someone must be?
According to Tom Whipple:
Quote:
3. Blackouts and Shortages
The CIA reports that there are 266 “nations, dependent areas, and other entities” on the world today. During the last few weeks at least 90 of these are reported to be having continuing serious or very serious energy shortages. The number of countries with energy problems may be much higher as the CIA also reports that 94 of the world’s nations are islands many of which are so small they are rarely heard from but are almost certain to be suffering from $140 oil.
Most of the places having serious energy problems are in South Asia, Africa, Latin America, and scattered islands. Taken together, they make up over half of the world’s population. Nearly all are having electric power shortages that have resulted in daily blackouts ranging from a few hours to most of the day. Droughts, fuel costs and rapid growth in electrically powered consumer goods are behind most of the shortages. Insurgencies, mismanagement, and even accidents are taking a toll. Liquid fuel shortages are growing rapidly as poorer nations struggle to keep up with surging prices.
In sum, these shortages are causing serious hardships among peoples who have grown accustomed to electric lights, refrigeration, air conditioning and motorized vehicles. Some form of energy-related strike, demonstration, or riot is now being reported almost daily somewhere around the world. It will not be long before serious repercussions evolve from these shortages.
There are so many places with serious troubles that it is difficult to pick out the more vulnerable. Pakistan, where power shortages have nearly eliminated the export-textile industry and which is only days away from running out of liquid fuels, is likely near the top of the list. Bangladesh and even India may not be too far behind, possibly failing to produce enough food for their peoples. Beyond South Asia there are numerous places of consequence that may be facing political upheavals due to the declining availability of electricity and liquid fuels.
BANGALORE: Is the city heading towards a dry-out scenario? It is already facing a fuel shortage of 30%. Plus oil companies have "unofficially" asked bunk owners to go slow on "regular" petrol/diesel and focus on "premium" products.
The rationing has started and regular petrol is out of stock, say many consumers.
Confirming the shortage, Bhushan Narang, president, Bangalore Petroleum Dealers' Association and Akhila Karnataka Petroleum Dealers' Association, said: "The reason is purely economical. Oil companies are unable to source sufficient quantity of oil. This has led to a 30% decline in supply, while the demand for fuel is growing day by day. It's a matter of time before the shortage scenario turns worse in the city and across the country. This could be avoided if the government revises prices."
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 4:05 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
We have already discussed here a number of points that mean that predicting the crude imports (or, more to the point, the value that EIA presents as each weeks imports, which is somewhat different from actual imports) is a very difficult game.
When numbers like this week's value appear, and surprise "everybody" (meaning: everybody that is not feed by the appropriate precocious leaks) I always feel tempted to give up that kind of prediction, and to just wait for the numbers.
However, since I have some professional obligations, I still have to present my best guesstimate to some people, and so I keep dedicating some time to this graceless task.
So...
After last weeks data, I wrote here:
Quote:
This may represent the initial reduction in imports due to the well known problems in Nigeria.
If that is so, we can expect similar values (or perhaps a trifle higher) for the next few (2 to 3) weeks, with consistent drawdowns in crude stocks.
That meant I was expecting something in the range of 9.8 to 10.0 for this week.
The present numbers point to a different reality, and I also think that they mean that at $145 some countries are being outpriced.
This is similar to the old joke:
2 guys are hiking in Africa and they are surprised by a lion.
One of them starts to change the hiking boots to some running shoes.
The other asks him:
-Do you expect to outrun the lion?
-No, but I just need to outrun you.
ATM the oil supply situation is similar.
We are in the very first stages of the Peak Oil problem.
Beyond slowly compressing their own consumption, the OECD countries still only have to outbid the poorer countries.
The problem will be different when those poorer countries have already given up, and when the OECD countries are having to outbid each other.
But still, even then, the only question will be paying enough. Above some price, those remaining bidding will get the oil they need…
That said, I believe the last 2 weeks' imports balance each other. Probably, this was one of those situations when 1 or 2 VLT were delayed from one week the next.
This means the average imports remain at 10.0 to 10.3.
Lets see if the production limitations that we were aware of show some effects in the imports for the next few weeks, or if the outbidding effect goes on masking those production problems for the near to medium time frame…
Being somewhat conservative, for the next week, I prefer to simply bet on something around 10.1 to 10.2…
Last edited by Ming on Fri Jul 18, 2008 1:53 am; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 8:20 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Ming wrote:
2 guys are hiking in Africa and they are surprised by a lion.
One of them starts to change the hiking boots to some running shoes.
The other asks him:
-Do you expect to outrun the lion?
-No, but I just need to outrun you.
Thx, that is a perfect analogy.
I have noticed that when the US has a bearish report that the WTI price drops below the Brent. It seems like the Brent is forcing the WTI price but I have done no analysis to back that up.
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 8:27 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
I have noticed that when the US has a bearish report that the WTI price drops below the Brent. It seems like the Brent is forcing the WTI price but I have done no analysis to back that up.
That is very interesting, and it certainly is worth checking...
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