Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 9:26 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
The total gasoline of 196.6 is .4 over last year, third week Aug. So, that's still sorta ok.
We usually draw down this time of year. However, this whole "averaging 5.1 Mbbl draw in gasoline stocks over the last 4 weeks" is a problem. Last year, the drawdown average was 1.9 per week, until the 2nd-3rd week in September, when inventories typically start back up.
Our last dip below 190 was in November of 2000. I'm feeling we'll test that this year. Hope to God not next week. For MOL comparisons, the last time below 186 was is 1997 and the last time below 185.5 was some time before 1990. _________________ At 1% annual growth, human bodies will incorporate every gram in the observable universe in approximately 10,170 years.
Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 3343 Location: Resiliency Farm
Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 9:31 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Does anyone keep track of the percentage relationship between our average weekly consumption of gasoline and the stockpile?
While we have been at a lower level of storage in the past, has it ever been at a lower percentage of consumption?
I would assume MOL is a moving target, a function of how much we have compared to how quickly we are using it. It might be interesting to look at the numbers anyway... since I don't have time to run the numbers, I guess I should keep my mouth shut but I am curious none the less... _________________ “It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”
J.R.R. Tolkien
"The time has come for men to act like men; and for women, well, to act a lot more like men."
-Ma Cur
Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 10:06 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
wisconsin_cur said:
Quote:
I would assume MOL is a moving target, a function of how much we have compared to how quickly we are using it. It might be interesting to look at the numbers anyway... since I don't have time to run the numbers, I guess I should keep my mouth shut but I am curious none the less...
Last year we did a lot of calculations on this subject. It is a function of Queuing Theory, but unfortunately, the exact quantities are non-deterministic. It is a moving target, however. Like you said, it not only depends on quantity of stock, but the rate it is being used. Another significant problem is that the US is broken up into regions, or Pads. These only have limited impact on each other. So, we could see serious shortages on the West Coast, with little impact on the East Coast, or visa versa.
Last year we saw shortages in the Mid West at 193 mb. Since they are sort of at the end of the pipe, it is likely we will again witness it there first. But with imports at these historically low levels, it is quite likely to spread very rapidly.
Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 10:19 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
wisconsin_cur wrote:
Does anyone keep track of the percentage relationship between our average weekly consumption of gasoline and the stockpile?
While we have been at a lower level of storage in the past, has it ever been at a lower percentage of consumption?
I would assume MOL is a moving target, a function of how much we have compared to how quickly we are using it. It might be interesting to look at the numbers anyway... since I don't have time to run the numbers, I guess I should keep my mouth shut but I am curious none the less...
Let's estimate that in Aug 2008, we consumed 285 and the ending stocks will be 190. That ratio is .66 (.66 months of consumption if all supply ended).
Here's how that number has looked in the past.
Here's a graph of the stocks and consumption.
The lowest three numbers are .65 in both August '07 and August '05. It was .66 in August '03. August, eh?
There have been seven months below .70 in the last 38 years. Four of those were in 2007.
Now, does that reflect a real problem or just better just-in-time delivery? Dunno. But, just-in-time delivery can mean rather sudden shortages.
Update: Yet prices are falling. Keep on trucking, America, I guess. _________________ At 1% annual growth, human bodies will incorporate every gram in the observable universe in approximately 10,170 years.
Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 10:56 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
Does anyone keep track of the percentage relationship between our average weekly consumption of gasoline and the stockpile?
number of days' "products supplied" in inventory since 2000
Average 23.03548062
Max 28.05696375
Min 19.77441043
Stdev 1.420745139
Current: 20.86596625
So, the current situation is not terribly unusual. but it is a 2.29-sigma event.
Now, The Dude will tell you that this number is the "finished gasoline plus blending components" and the EIA does not break this out, but, the argument can be made that the finished product inventory is a lot lower than that.
It will get a little better in a few weeks, when the summer demand slows down a little.
But it may be a little tight for awhile.
Last edited by pup55 on Wed Aug 20, 2008 1:24 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 1:34 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
does that reflect a real problem
Anyway I write about the refiners a lot, but talk about a business that no one can get excited about---- the distribution system. Who wants to put money into that? The multinationals? Forget it, That's all overhead. The small guys? nah. Too small to justify it.
So you have decades of underinvestment in the pipeline infrastructure, which was designed for the 1975 era, you have X percent average growth, and no one wants to put money into it....
Plus you have people not wanting to go out on a limb to make the multibillion dollar commitment to build or expand, because they have no confidence that the supply will be around at the right price....
Plus you end up with situations like BP's big pipeline up north and that pipeline in Minnesota that rotted out because they did not want to spend money on maintenance....
Plus with the capital markets all screwed up, no one can raise the billions you need for pipeline upgrades anyway, without government help.
Plus if your pipelines are full, you end up using tank trucks to truck this stuff around, which are only about 10% as efficient as pipelines, plus run on diesel.
So the distribution system stays constant, and the population grows, and at some point, something has to give.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 3:53 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Troyboy1208 wrote:
Not sure how this is going to affect things, but here in Florida we have drained the pumps of gas because of the approaching storm. I had to fill up with 93 octane because it was the only thing left! I know were just one state, but suppliers are scrambling to get enough gas to everyone topping off their tanks. Its astounding that when everyone tops of their tanks simultaneously it breaks the supply system!
Quote:
Wednesday, Aug. 20, 2008
Storm fears left local gas stations high and dry
By TIFFANY ST. MARTIN
As Tropical Storm Fay approached Southwest Florida on Monday evening, Manatee motorists made a run on gasoline, draining a handful of stations around town of their supply.
The 7-Eleven on the corner of State Road 70 and Caruso Road ran out of fuel shortly after 5 p.m. on Monday, store manager Sandy Thompson said. "Once everyone got off work, they started hitting us hard."
The station sold more than 2,000 gallons of gas in no time at all, she said, but received a new supply of fuel Tuesday morning.
The man delivering the gasoline told Thompson the shortage was widespread enough that he had to wait in line to fill his truck - something that rarely happens.
Bradenton Herald _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 3:59 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
shortonoil wrote:
wisconsin_cur said:
Quote:
I would assume MOL is a moving target, a function of how much we have compared to how quickly we are using it. It might be interesting to look at the numbers anyway... since I don't have time to run the numbers, I guess I should keep my mouth shut but I am curious none the less...
Last year we did a lot of calculations on this subject. It is a function of Queuing Theory, but unfortunately, the exact quantities are non-deterministic. It is a moving target, however. Like you said, it not only depends on quantity of stock, but the rate it is being used. Another significant problem is that the US is broken up into regions, or Pads. These only have limited impact on each other. So, we could see serious shortages on the West Coast, with little impact on the East Coast, or visa versa.
Last year we saw shortages in the Mid West at 193 mb. Since they are sort of at the end of the pipe, it is likely we will again witness it there first. But with imports at these historically low levels, it is quite likely to spread very rapidly.
Yep, we are getting pretty damn close to MOLs in the upper Midwest. Another few weeks of low gasoline imports, and the Department of Energy will be playing whack-a-mole trying to stop local shortages by moving supply around. Something like that is already going on in Canada at this very moment:
Quote:
Magellan Midstream Experiencing Gasoline Outages at its Northern Tier Terminals
August 19
A company representative reported August 19 that Magellan was experiencing some outages of gasoline at terminals in the northern tier of its system and its ability to maintain consistent supply at all terminals was contingent on shipments from Mid-Continent and Gulf Coast origins. Some refiners in those regions that supply the products pipeline have experienced unexpected outages in the recent weeks, especially within gasoline producing units. The company representative also added that the pipeline and terminals were operating normally from a mechanical standpoint.
Reuters, 17:08 August 19, 2008
[sorry, no link]
Quote:
Petro Canada pumps running on empty
Scott Mitchell
Echo Reporter
Wednesday August 20, 2008
Petro Canada stations throughout Alberta, including the Airdrie location were unable to help those looking to fill-up.
Airdrie Echo — It’s a bad time to load up on Petro Points.
For those who haven’t noticed, Petro Canada on Edmonton Trail has dropped their gas prices to zero. Not to offer customers a discount, but because they are out of gas entirely.
Airdrie Echo _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 3343 Location: Resiliency Farm
Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 11:01 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Wow, thanks for all of the great responses! It'll be curious to see how this works itself out in the coming seasons...
I always thought it would be cool to be on the cutting edge of a trend... but gasoline shortages were not exactly what I had in mind. _________________ “It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”
J.R.R. Tolkien
"The time has come for men to act like men; and for women, well, to act a lot more like men."
-Ma Cur
Pemex To Shut Cadereyta Cat Cracker In Oct For 63 Days:Source
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
August 21, 2008 1:56 p.m.
MEXICO CITY (Dow Jones)--Mexico's Cadereyta refinery plans to shut a key gasoline unit in early October for 63 days of planned maintenance work, a refinery employee involved in the contracting process said Thursday.
State-run Petroleos Mexicanos, the only refiner in Mexico, normally has to increase fuel imports during periods of refinery maintenance to guarantee domestic gasoline supplies.
Cadereyta normally produces 80,000 to 90,000 barrels a day of gasoline. The refinery has two catalytic crackers, and the unit coming down for maintenance has a maximum capacity of 65,000 barrels a day.
Pemex will also carry out two weeks of maintenance work to a sulfur removal plant in October.
WSJ _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 6:27 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Here is the little graph we have been using since April to look at the balance demand compared to last year. We have discussed previously that the demand this summer when the prices were way high had fallen off precipitously, but for a couple weeks in early August, the demand had recovered somewhat.
Last week, however, something unusual happened: the "balance" dropped off a lot. So much, in fact, that it makes me want to doubt the number. This number did not show up in the "products supplied", and in fact the products supplied, at 9.455, was the highest all summer. What happened was that the "gap" between products supplied and the actual demand was nearly zero last week. This in and of itself is highly unusual, it is usually about .7 or higher during the summer months, and drops to about .3 or .4 during the fall and winter, so to have it go down to near zero is really unusual.
This is another reason for me to doubt the number.
So, I am going to go out on a limb, and say that this "demand" will be about 10.2 this week, which is traditionally a busy driving week, rather than 9.5 or whatever. This, along with the diminished production and lower imports will mean another inventory drawdown, as our national supply of unleaded heads closer toward what was thought to be the MOL.
In refinery utilization, there is no compelling reason to believe that the refinery production will be way higher this week. These guys are all depressed, their margins are down, their stock prices are in the toilet, crude oil prices are still stupidly high, and if I was down in Port Arthur today, I would look in all of the local watering holes for the plant management and crew, who would probably rather go out and drink a few before coming in this morning, rather than face another tough week like this. If I was running a real forecasting operation, instead of the low budget one that it is, we would get another young intern to go down to some of the local establishments with a credit card and get the information we need firsthand, but it is not, so we will only have to guess on this.
The other story we have been watching is the crude oil imports, which have been impacted the last two weeks because of Edouard. We are waiting around for the next big storm to hit, but until then, it should be pretty close to the normal 10.2 mbpd. As you remember, the plan for forecasting this number is to hire young interns in bikinis to go down to the LOOP and Galveston and count the tankers, but since the current budget for this thread is "zero" we will have to wait on this too.
It is still too early for the harvest demand to pick up, so distillates will be relatively stable.
So I am seeing another drawdown in unleaded, a small increase in distillates, and a respectable increase in crude oil inventories.
Ironically, the success of these predictions every week is roughly comparable to the real operations who actually do have budgets, which makes you wonder what we could do if we could actually hire the interns and do the research.
By the way, for those of the board that plan to use heating oil to keep warm this winter, you ought to know that the inventory of distillates kept just about level last year between Labor Day and Christmas, with the refineries averaging 88% utilization, and us importing .3 mbpd of distillates. Now, we are running the refineries at 85.5%, and importing .1 or less. A little rough calculation says that at this rate, we will drain about 30 million barrels out of the inventory between now and December, if things keep going like they are. This has not showed up in the weekly numbers yet, because it is not harvest time and the weather is still good for now.
Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 7:01 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
To embellish that last point a little more, last fall, we imported .267 mbpd on average between Labor Day and New Years. For the last nine weeks, we have averaged .141.
During that same period, last year we averaged 4.203 mbpd distillate production, at 88% utilization.
That level of production and imports kept the inventories more or less level, given the demand level of last year.
The average distillate demand this summer (from June till now) is 4.158 mbpd. This compares to 4.132 for the same period last year.
We know the farmers are going to need a lot of diesel this year.
Joined: Sep 17, 2005 Posts: 178 Location: The Netherlands
Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 1:24 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
pup55, do you happen to know any sources for this kind of information for Europe? I've been googling around but can't seem to find much. _________________ The man who moves a mountain begins by carrying away small stones.
Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 3:46 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
do you happen to know any sources for this kind of information for Europe
It would be wonderful to have this sort of information for Europe, flawed as it is, to keep track weekly.
The closest thing to it is the IEA Oil Market Report, which comes out every month about the 15th, and to us non-subscribers who are thrifty you get free access to the previous month's report. Also, the statistics in the report are delayed a couple of months at least.
So, this thing is useful to figure out the inventory situation in about May if you are looking at it now.
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