I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 3:58 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
I expect a net draw on all liquids tomorrow, with the exception of LPG being positive, but not enough to bring the total into positive territory.
Thats a nice report linked above.
2,483,563 bpd of refining capactiy shut in.
3,099,220 bpd running at reduced rates?
It does not say by how much, but this is a very large number. After checking the news, it appears that nearly all of these reduced rate refineries had been shut during the storm, so it is unclear if they have now resumed production or are still idling.
The 2.484 mbpd number certainly does not do justice to the actual disruption we have seen.
Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 8:15 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
A Reuters poll forecasts stockpiles of crude to rise by 100,000 barrels, gasoline supplies to draw down by 1.3 million-barrels and a distillates to build by about 500,000 barrels. However, it’s important to note disruptions caused by Gustav will not be fully reflected in U.S. inventory data until next week.
Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 1:21 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
Aug 05, 2005 8761
Aug 12, 2005 8725
Aug 19, 2005 8623
Aug 26, 2005 8799
Sep 02, 2005 8063
Sep 09, 2005 8486
Sep 16, 2005 8773
Sep 23, 2005 8586
Sep 30, 2005 7507
Oct 07, 2005 7887
Oct 14, 2005 8545
Oct 21, 2005 8587
Oct 28, 2005 8734
Nov 04, 2005 8626
Nov 11, 2005 8783
Here is the unleaded production for the Katrina/Rita period. It looks as though the effect of Katrina was a decrease of .8 mbpd unleaded, which extrapolates out to 1.226 mbpd of crude oil/NPC refinery capacity for all products.
The outage was fixed over a period of about two weeks.
The outage for Rita was slightly more severe, probably closer to 1.8 mbpd refinery capacity, and also lasted for roughly two weeks afterward. That storm affected the Houston and Beaumont areas more extensively.
Good idea, bkwillia
According to the recent reports, the problem at the moment is almost twice as severe. The louisiana plants that are down combine for 2.5 mbpd crude oil inputs and 1.5 mbpd unleaded production.
Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 5:07 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
The U.S. Energy Department's Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release its report on U.S. oil stocks for the week ended Aug. 29 later in the day. The petroleum supply report was expected to show that oil stocks rose by 500,000 barrels, according to the average of analysts' estimates in a survey by energy information provider Platts.
The Platts survey also showed that analysts projected gasoline inventories fell 1.8 million barrels and distillates went up 1.1 million barrels during last week.
Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 5:31 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Pup, I believe that in your prediction for this week you did not consider the fact that Gustav's path probably blocked the normal approach of a number of cargos (from Venezuela, Nigeria, etc.) that normally should have entered the GOM, and should have arrived in time for accounting in last week's data...
This effect may have limited a little bit last week's crude imports (and perhaps even the gasoline imports).
So, on the basis of your prediction, I would (prudently) subtract 0.2Mb/d of crude imports, and also (although this is a little more risky) subtract 0.1Mb/d of gasoline imports.
Joined: Jun 30, 2005 Posts: 743 Location: northern California
Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 8:10 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
pup55 wrote:
You're probably right. I also think there is an error in my unleaded demand calculation (ugh).
That's the difference between me and someone who does this for a living.
pup55, just because someone does something for a living, that doesn't necessarily mean they're any better at it than is a passionate amateur. You're one of the best at this, hands down. _________________ "When men yield up the privilege of thinking, the last shadow of liberty quits the horizon."
Thomas Paine
Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 8:36 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
I'll second that. Even more important: the "experts" don't offer themselves here for face-to-face scrutiny. They just lobe their numbers in and run for cover.
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4847 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 9:07 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending August 29, 2008
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged nearly 15.3 million barrels per day
during the week ending August 29, up 147 thousand barrels per day from the
previous week's average. Refineries operated at 88.7 percent of their operable
capacity last week. Gasoline production rose last week, averaging 9.4 million
barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging
4.5 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 9.8 million barrels per day last week, down 149
thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude
oil imports have averaged 10.1 million barrels per day, 0.2 million barrels per
day below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports
including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week
averaged 883 thousand barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 93
thousand barrels per day last week.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.9 million barrels from the previous week. At
303.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the middle of the
average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased
by 1.0 million barrels last week, and are near the lower boundary of the average
range. Finished gasoline inventories increased last week while gasoline blending
components inventories decreased during this same time. Distillate fuel
inventories fell last week, and are in the upper half of the average range for
this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 0.9 million
barrels last week but remain below the lower limit of the average range. Total
commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 3.6 million barrels last week, and
are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged nearly 20.3
million barrels per day, down by 3.5 percent compared to the similar period last
year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 9.4 million
barrels per day, down by 1.6 percent from the same period last year. Distillate
fuel demand has averaged nearly 4.3 million barrels per day over the last four
weeks, up by 2.7 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is 9.3
percent lower over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last
year.
Probably had to "correct" a few "errors" _________________ Clothing should be optional.
Joined: Mar 20, 2007 Posts: 174 Location: There is no hope for the future
Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 9:11 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
i think that the 'errors' that were corrected this week will show up in next weeks report with a nice placating explanation.
'crude and gasoline inventories dropped by 10+ million barrels this week......due to hurricane activity........we would be ok if it wasn't for that pesky mother nature.
Jeesh, the analysts killed me this week, and deservedly so.
The refinery utilization at 88.7% is higher than it has been in weeks, and is counterseasonal, in that normally this time of year they start backing production down, evidently they are making up for that lost production from the summer, possibly in response to their perceived (correct) low inventory levels.
Ming was correct on the lower crude oil imports, at only 9.8, the screwed up shipping lanes may well have had an effect. It's anyone's guess what it will be next week, with the closure of the LOOP and Houston Ship Channel.
Note that the unleaded imports and especially the distillate imports are way low, much lower than normal. There are still plenty of distillates around, as we indicated, but a steady drawdown in inventory will cause problems in December, as we indicated a week or so ago.
With the drawdown in unleaded, plus the already low inventory levels, plus the downtime in the refineries, plus the fact that the ports are closed, we might start to see some problems with the gasoline distribution system this week. DP correctly points out that the last time inventories were at these levels we started to have problems in the upper midwest, and it would not be at all surprising to see issues in the southeast US as well, as we suggested the other day.
The hurricane(s) will make this situation worse before it gets better.
If Ike keeps heading in the direction he is heading, we could just barely get recovered before another evacuation/disaster week.
I've actually fallen below 50% vs. the analysts for the first time this year, but you know, next week is another week, and it will be really interesting to try to figure out what the effects of Gustav will be on the inventories.
Meanwhile, keep watching for shortage reports, because we should start seeing some sneak in this week, if our doom-o-meter is calibrated correctly.
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
