I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Sun Sep 07, 2008 1:00 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
TheDude wrote:
Clinton released 30 mb of the SPR in Oct 2000 to lower the price for purchasers of heating oil, but as we see gasoline stocks were at an all time low as well.
And, even with the current down turn in miles driven, we drive more now than in 2000.
2000 ~2650 billion vehicle miles
2008 ~2975 billion vehicle miles _________________ “It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”
Posted: Sun Sep 07, 2008 1:12 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
Don't see an excess of reports for shortages in 2000 though
Good graph, The Dude. It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out. In 2000, like now, the inventory issues evidently were hitting at exactly the time of lowest seasonal demand, mid-September.
We talked about 'number of days' demand in inventory" the other day.
I think DP is onto something with the Colonial Pipeline thing. That and the chronic problems in the Upper Midwest are the first places to look for trouble, if you want to. Also, look in rural areas, places like Muscle Shoals that are out in the middle of nowhere away from the pipeline terminals.
Perhaps the vast PO.com member network will be alert to this, and report any observations in the appropriate thread.
If you care to go back to the WPSR files for the weeks of September 2 and 9 of 2005, you can get the full idea of the effect of Katrina. At that time, the effects were spread out over two weeks.
The crude oil inventory dropped from 323 to 308 during that period, Gasoline imports went from 1.1 mbpd the last week of August to .86 the week of the storm, a decrease of .3 mbpd, and unleaded inventories bottomed out at about 190. The flood of unleaded imports occurred in the weeks after Katrina hit.
So, it is not totally implausible to see a decrease in inventory of almost 17 million barrels of crude oil, if the effects all showed up in the same week, unlike during Katrina when they showed up over two weeks.
Using the reduced refinery input calculation, above, which says nearly 1.7 mbpd on average refinery production did not occur, and using the idea that the remaining refiners in the country kept running at 87% or something, and assuming 1 mbpd lower domestic production because the GOM was shut in, and all of the effects happening in one week, the number is actually a lot worse than the one above. This will be sort of a test of the estimating and reporting system as well. Maybe this slug will all show up in one week, maybe not.
In unleaded, we know all of that production around Louisiana was lost, and we also suspect that because of the shipping closures around the GOM we will see about 1 mbpd lower imports (we all know how important that is) and using a recalibrated demand estimate (found my spreadsheet bug) it's going to be an epic drainage of inventory.
I suppose it is likely that some of the shipments of crude oil and finished products could have been diverted to the east coast when it became clear that Gustav was going to hit, and that the import decrease will not be as bad as the original calculations above, and that is where I fudged to make these numbers look slightly less bad than they actually are.
The situation is so crazy that I am tempted to call a one-week only "weasel forecast" and allow some possible fudging of numbers between now and wednesday in case some news comes to light, or it is revealed that some of this stuff is wrong. Also, I can be convinced to make some adjustments based on some discussion in this thread.
As to the earlier point, it is pretty clear from here that if Ike hits out there someplace, between Lake Charles and Port Arthur like they say it might, or even worse, out in Texas City, you could easily see another drop of this magnitude happening in a couple more weeks.
The only thing that may save us is the reduced autumn demand for unleaded (which should go down to about 8.5 mbpd unleaded products supplied, which in addition to a flood of imports could give us a little break.
Feel free to check my numbers and tell me if I am way off.
Posted: Sun Sep 07, 2008 4:07 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Great analysis, Pup.
Perhaps gasoline demand can be a little lower on psychological reasons: Drivers react preventively to perceived calamities, as we know from the Katrina days. But I would not risk a number on that. Also, I would expect some diversion of cargoes to NY and such, but you already incorporated that. So, I'm 100% with you, in this one.
Lets see how it plays out.
Posted: Mon Sep 08, 2008 7:22 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
But with Ike on the way refiners might not start buying to refill their invesntories until they work through what is already on the way.
This is actually an important point. If you have enough feedstock on hand, and your refinery is down, you don't need the oil for a day or two. That might explain some of the pricing weakness at the moment.
The path of Ike has been changed a little, pointing more toward Texas City and the HST. A second problem is that it is really going to screw up gulf shipping, even if it hits harmlessly somewhere, because they will have to stop the tankers and/or get them out of the way. So, this will further delay and disrupt imports. That stuff is still out there, though, and it will hit the market at some point after all of this dies down.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3867 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Mon Sep 08, 2008 10:43 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
pup55 wrote:
Quote:
But with Ike on the way refiners might not start buying to refill their invesntories until they work through what is already on the way.
This is actually an important point. If you have enough feedstock on hand, and your refinery is down, you don't need the oil for a day or two. That might explain some of the pricing weakness at the moment.
The path of Ike has been changed a little, pointing more toward Texas City and the HST. A second problem is that it is really going to screw up gulf shipping, even if it hits harmlessly somewhere, because they will have to stop the tankers and/or get them out of the way. So, this will further delay and disrupt imports. That stuff is still out there, though, and it will hit the market at some point after all of this dies down.
Stupid question of the day, what other ports on the Eastern Seaboard are capable of offloading crude oil from tankers? Are any of them on the pipeline network and why can't they run oil down the pipe the other way to Tx and LA if the LOOP and HST are severly damaged? _________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
The LOOP is the only port in the US capable of offloading VLCC and ULCC tankers. Probably if it were really damaged, it makes sense to reverse the 1500 mile pipeline system, thus causing real problems in getting finished products out of there, but probably easier and better to just withdraw from the SPR until it gets rebuilt somehow.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3614 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Mon Sep 08, 2008 11:29 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Tanada wrote:
Stupid question of the day, what other ports on the Eastern Seaboard are capable of offloading crude oil from tankers? Are any of them on the pipeline network and why can't they run oil down the pipe the other way to Tx and LA if the LOOP and HST are severly damaged?
Top 20 U.S. Ports of Call by Vessel Type, 2005
(Vessel Calls)
Vessel Type/Port
Calls
Percent
of
Total
Vessel Type/Port
Calls
Percent
of
Total
Tanker Tanker, Crude
Houston 3,392 17 Port Arthur 834 11
Philadelphia 1,534 8 Philadelphia 827 10
New York 1,380 7 Houston 814 10
Port Arthur 1,270 6 Texas City 469 6
New Orleans 1,121 6 New Orleans 444 6
Texas City 1,074 5 LA/Long Beach 421 5
LA/Long Beach 1,070 5 LOOP Term. 400 5
Corpus Christi 788 4 Corpus Christi 351 4
San Francisco 692 3 New York 350 4
Freeport(Texas) 561 3 Valdez 323 4
Port Everglades 440 2 San Francisco 303 4
Lake Charles 434 2 Freeport(Texas) 287 4
Tampa 401 2 Lake Charles 273 3
LOOP Term. 400 2 March Point 217 3
Valdez 399 2 Port Angeles 203 3
March Point 340 2 Portland(ME USA) 184 2
Portland(ME USA) 304 2 Cherry Point 173 2
Jacksonville 299 1 El Segundo 134 2
Savannah 273 1 Pascagoula 117 1
Wilmington(NC USA) 267 1 Ferndale 108 1
Top 20 Ports 16,439 82 7,232 92
All Ports 20,118 100 All Ports 7,901 100
Tanker, Product Container
Houston 2,578 21 LA/Long Beach 2,812 15
New York 1,030 8 New York 2,370 13
Philadelphia 707 6 San Francisco 1,930 10
New Orleans 677 6 Virginia Ports 1,731 9
LA/Long Beach 649 5 Charleston 1,464 8
Texas City 605 5 Savannah 1,386 7
Corpus Christi 437 4 Miami 907 5
Port Arthur 436 4 Houston 874 5
Port Everglades 429 4 Seattle 808 4
Tampa 398 3 Tacoma 618 3
San Francisco 389 3 San Juan(PRI) 485 3
Jacksonville 296 2 Port Everglades 460 2
Freeport(Texas) 274 2 Philadelphia 390 2
Wilmington(NC USA) 266 2 Baltimore 376 2
Savannah 261 2 Honolulu 362 2
Point Comfort 248 2 New Orleans 310 2
Baltimore 163 1 Jacksonville 244 1
Charleston 163 1 Dutch Hbr. 152 1
Lake Charles 161 1 Boston(USA) 149 1
Columbia River 127 1 Anchorage 121 1
Top 20 Ports 10,294 84 Top 20 Ports 17,949 82
All Ports 12,217 100 All Ports 18,542 100
Rather messy so consult the original doc for more info. I assume these other ports can handle up to a Suezmax, it would depend on how deep a draft and wide a beam they're designed for and you'd need to check stats on each port.
A consortium of oil pipeline and storage companies plans to invest $1.8 billion to build the United States' second deepwater oil import terminal in Texas, the companies said Monday.
The terminal would be the second facility in the U.S. capable of handling the largest oil tankers, known in the industry as Very Large Crude Carriers.
Enterprise Products Partners LP, TEPPCO Partners LP and privately held Oiltanking will each take a one-third stake in the project, to be called the Texas Offshore Port System.
_________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
The Dude Is Not In: Leave A Message After The Beep.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3867 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Mon Sep 08, 2008 3:50 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
TheDude wrote:
Tanada wrote:
Stupid question of the day, what other ports on the Eastern Seaboard are capable of offloading crude oil from tankers? Are any of them on the pipeline network and why can't they run oil down the pipe the other way to Tx and LA if the LOOP and HST are severly damaged?
Rather messy so consult the original doc for more info. I assume these other ports can handle up to a Suezmax, it would depend on how deep a draft and wide a beam they're designed for and you'd need to check stats on each port.
A consortium of oil pipeline and storage companies plans to invest $1.8 billion to build the United States' second deepwater oil import terminal in Texas, the companies said Monday.
The terminal would be the second facility in the U.S. capable of handling the largest oil tankers, known in the industry as Very Large Crude Carriers.
Enterprise Products Partners LP, TEPPCO Partners LP and privately held Oiltanking will each take a one-third stake in the project, to be called the Texas Offshore Port System.
Excellent data at the link TYVM! If I am reading it right NY, Philly, Boston, Wilmington N.C. and Savannah S.C. together currently handle about the same traffic as the LOOP or HST, but not both.
I am glad someone wants to build a second VLCC and ULCC terminal, but I wish they would put it in say Portlan Maine instead of Texas! I mean, get real guys, Hurricans are now tearing things up too frequently for comfort and we have no reason to expect that to change over the next couple decades. _________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Mon Sep 08, 2008 4:10 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
September 8, 2008
Statement from DOE’s Chief Spokesperson Andrew Beck Regarding Delivery of SPR Oil to Marathon Petroleum Company
WASHINGTON, DC – Today, September 8, 2008, the U.S. Department of Energy will deliver 250,000 barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to Marathon Petroleum Company’s Midwest refineries along the Capline pipeline system. The oil was requested by Marathon because of disruptions in supply caused by Hurricane Gustav.
Wholesale gasoline prices were bid up today from the Gulf Coast to Chicago, and now are 50 cents/gallon over the current month gasoline futures price. This is certainly the biggest difference between NY and the Gulf/Chicago areas since Hurricane Katrina, and one of the largest ever.
It's possible that in addition to short supplies, caused by hurricane damage and the temporary failure of the Capline pipeline (which was now working today). gasoline dealers and refiners were buying to secure supplies before the next hurricane.
This week's inventory report will be interesting indeed. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Mon Sep 08, 2008 5:08 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
DantesPeak said:
Quote:
Wholesale gasoline prices were bid up today from the Gulf Coast to Chicago, and now are 50 cents/gallon over the current month gasoline futures price.
Thanks DP, just what I was looking for. It appears that we are right on schedule. Another 3 or 4 days should produce some interesting results. If shortages show up before Ike hits, the media is going to have some explaining to do!
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Mon Sep 08, 2008 5:19 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
shortonoil wrote:
DantesPeak said:
Quote:
Wholesale gasoline prices were bid up today from the Gulf Coast to Chicago, and now are 50 cents/gallon over the current month gasoline futures price.
Thanks DP, just what I was looking for. It appears that we are right on schedule. Another 3 or 4 days should produce some interesting results. If shortages show up before Ike hits, the media is going to have some explaining to do!
Thanks.
In addition, the Colonial Pipeline is still running at reduced rates up cross country from the Gulf to NJ, and points in between.
Quote:
Colonial pipeline is operating on reduced flows.
Department of Energy
Hurricane Gustav Situation Report # 12
September 8, 2008 (12:00 PM EDT)
So far, low gasoline supplies have not been reported in the northeast part of the country north of North Carolina - which already has an EPA waiver (allowing the use of blends of gasoline other than those blended for summer use). _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Mon Sep 08, 2008 7:34 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
Oil Refiners Continue To Recover From Gustav With Eye On Ike
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
September 8, 2008 5:02 p.m
Lingering power issues kept at least one refinery, ConocoPhillip's (COP) plant in Belle Chasse, La., closed on Monday.
More than 40% of U.S. refining capacity is concentrated on the Gulf Coast, stretching from Corpus Christi, Texas, to Alabama. A large swathe in Louisiana shut down due to power outages in Gustav's wake. This time around, forecasts call for Ike to track toward the Houston-Galveston refinery cluster, home to the largest refinery in the U.S.
Oil product markets are already under strain due to refinery outages, and Ike could add to the pressure. The premium on diesel for immediate delivery in the Gulf Coast widened to 13 cents above the benchmark contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange, from a notional 3 cents over the screen Friday. The premium on conventional gasoline widened from 54 cents Monday from 25.5 cents on Friday.
WSJ _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
