Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: Jan 11, 2005 Posts: 578 Location: southern Wisconsin
Posted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 8:16 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
The Jotul 100 has an efficiency rating of 70%. Once fully fired, it emits very little smoke.
I had mine installed in front of the old fireplace. Also had the stainless steel liner removed from the chimney and replaced with a solid flue (cement casing).
Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 1:58 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
Investors are watching for signs of slowing U.S. demand in the weekly oil inventories report to be released later Wednesday from the U.S. Energy Department's Energy Information Administration. The petroleum supply report was expected to show that oil stocks fell 1 million barrels, according to the average of analysts' estimates in a survey by energy information provider Platts.
The Platts survey also showed that analysts projected gasoline inventories rose 2 million barrels and distillates went up 1 million barrels last week.
U.S. motorists bought an average 8.625 million barrels of gasoline a day in the week ended Oct. 3, down from 9.536 million a year earlier, MasterCard, the second-biggest credit-card company, said yesterday in its SpendingPulse report. It was the 24th consecutive weekly decline, and the biggest since September 2005, after Hurricane Katrina sent pump prices to records.
Wednesday also brings the weekly inventory report here in the states. There are a lot of differing opinions on what this week's report would look like but most industry analysts are expecting a one-million barrel drop in crude oil supplies and a one-million barrel build in distillates.
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4913 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 8:42 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Imports are WAY up, inventories soared this week... I'm getting a feeling gasoline may be coming down for some time. _________________ Clothing should be optional.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 2604 Location: South of Atlanta
Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 8:43 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Report is on CNBC, I guess this I what demand destruction looks like. Ive been skeptical but it's hard to deny numbers like these.
7mb gain in gasoline inventory, 8 mb gain in crude, and about a half million in distillate draw.
Gonna be hard to explain these.
PO is going to move completely out of any credibility for many years with the collapse of the worlds economy. Unfortunately If your unemployed its still going to be very difficult to take advantage of lower gas prices.
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 4338 Location: Graceland
Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 8:46 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Demand destruction will mask many of peak oil's effects, I think.
It will be when some kind of robust economic recovery is attempted (whenever that may be) that we will discover that peak oil never went away, it was just hiding behind (and causing) demand destruction.
Airlines would do well to lock in fuel prices as far out as they can. _________________
Sometimes these reports are fairly boring, and sometimes, there is a lot of hidden information that comes out, and this is exactly that kind of report.
First of all, we see that the pent up supply of crude oil and unleaded that has been sitting in the gulf of Mexico for a couple of weeks while the LOOP and HST are repaired has finally hit. The unleaded imports of 1.4 and the crude oil imports of 10.3 (!) suggest a flood of supply that has hit the marketplace.
Couple this with additional unleaded production (the unleaded/distillates ratio is still skewed toward the unleaded) and pretty good refinery production overall, and you get a flood of unleaded, which I suppose explains why the supply situations have eased slightly in the SEUS.
Also, the demand figures are extremely important: Products supplied, as reported by the EIA, was down 5.3% versus last year, and even the little "balance" calculation I do was down considerably, from 9.61 last year for the equivalent week, down to 9.27, which is about 4%.
We did the calculation awhile back to the effect that this 4% is roughly the magnitude of decline of the 1973-1974 oil shock and recession. Note that there was a 45% stock market decline during that particular oil shock. Just saying.
I was a couple of percent low on the refinery utilization and refinery inputs, so I guess the refining industry took pity on the nation (and wanted to collect the premium on the spot prices) by producing plenty of unleaded. Note that the domestic production barely budged last week, is still roughly 1 mbpd down from the typical, and so you have to worry a little that the storms this year permanently affected the GOM production level.
Distillates: my forecast was almost right on the money. I am practically never this close. The EIA reports that demand for distillates is a bit lower than it was a year ago. Maybe this is because of lower trucking activity.
Well, this was a fun week. Next week, we will be a lot smarter: we will anticipate pretty strong refinery runs, additional crude oil and unleaded imports, and reduced demand, and maybe be a little closer to reality.
This should give further weakness to the market, particularly in light of the other frivolity going on.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 2604 Location: South of Atlanta
Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 9:20 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
pup55 wrote:
This should give further weakness to the market, particularly in light of the other frivolity going on.
HA! We are on the verge of a global systemic collapse and you call it frivolity? Heh, now thats just downright humorous!
Thanks for the normal excellent reporting.
I wish I had not bought USO again two weeks ago. I'm going to be really hard and sit on it for the long haul and hope someday we turn the economic corner again within my investment horizon. PO is not going away, but we seem to be making it a hell of a lot easier to remain on the plateau for a very long time.
Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 5:00 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
AirlinePilot wrote:
pup55 wrote:
This should give further weakness to the market, particularly in light of the other frivolity going on.
HA! We are on the verge of a global systemic collapse and you call it frivolity? Heh, now thats just downright humorous!
Thanks for the normal excellent reporting.
I wish I had not bought USO again two weeks ago. I'm going to be really hard and sit on it for the long haul and hope someday we turn the economic corner again within my investment horizon. PO is not going away, but we seem to be making it a hell of a lot easier to remain on the plateau for a very long time.
I think a lot of people will be shocked at how robust demand will be from now on going forward regardless of what the price of oil is.
Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 5:13 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
The US changes, while significant, do not seem to change the overall picture very much. How much has world crude production and consumption changed in the short time periods considered here? I'm guessing 'very little' but does anyone have these values?
Even in a protracted worldwide economic recession, barring a total collapse, is it credible that crude production/consumption will drop enough to make more than a small dent in previous predictions for the timing of peak oil on these boards?
Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 7:26 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
ushoys wrote:
The US changes, while significant, do not seem to change the overall picture very much. How much has world crude production and consumption changed in the short time periods considered here? I'm guessing 'very little' but does anyone have these values?
Even in a protracted worldwide economic recession, barring a total collapse, is it credible that crude production/consumption will drop enough to make more than a small dent in previous predictions for the timing of peak oil on these boards?
Unfortunately we will have to wait a month or two until the data comes out of the IEA for this period, but indeed, that is the question: Will the reduction in demand in the west only go so far as to make it so that another hundred thousand Chinese millionaires are finally able to afford gas for their car.
Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 8:55 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
pup55 wrote:
ushoys wrote:
The US changes, while significant, do not seem to change the overall picture very much. How much has world crude production and consumption changed in the short time periods considered here? I'm guessing 'very little' but does anyone have these values?
Even in a protracted worldwide economic recession, barring a total collapse, is it credible that crude production/consumption will drop enough to make more than a small dent in previous predictions for the timing of peak oil on these boards?
Unfortunately we will have to wait a month or two until the data comes out of the IEA for this period, but indeed, that is the question: Will the reduction in demand in the west only go so far as to make it so that another hundred thousand Chinese millionaires are finally able to afford gas for their car.
I think whats more important is the longer term trends which are not all that far out. I've maintained for some time that the so called demand destruction we have seen is a result of the crash of housing construction a large energy dependent industry. If you look at past recessions collapsing housing industry is tightly coupled to a recession and a flattening of VMT ( Vehicle Miles Driven ). Given the size of the housing bubble its not surprising we have seen a significant decrease in VMT. However housing starts are now at all time lows so if this was the real cause and I'm correct we will new find that US demand will flatten or at best move slowly downward from here on out.
The same process works in other countries also since the housing bubble was global. Depending on how much new construction was involved and when the bust started in each region we will see a flattening or decline in consumption in every country thats highly correlated with housing/ commercial real estate construction.
As with the US in all cases the destruction of the construction industry is a one time event as the housing bubble becomes a memory the remaining demand is resilient. We don't have another single large energy intensive industry that can be destroyed as we enter deflation.
So finally real post peak demand i.e after obvious excess such as the housing boom collapse starts this winter going forward. Effectively from next month onwards thats when we will begin to find the base level of US demand without the housing industry.
Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 12:57 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
Unfortunately we will have to wait a month or two until the data comes out of the IEA for this period, but indeed, that is the question: Will the reduction in demand in the west only go so far as to make it so that another hundred thousand Chinese millionaires are finally able to afford gas for their car.
I ran across a press comment from IEA yesterday saying they were dropping their forecast of global demand growth. Key point is they are still expecting some growth (looks like less than 1%), growth is still different from a demand decrease and given the lack of exploration success generally and delay in major projects coming on stream I still think the relatively tight market conditions will not go away entirely.
Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 8:06 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
ushoys wrote:
The US changes, while significant, do not seem to change the overall picture very much. How much has world crude production and consumption changed in the short time periods considered here? I'm guessing 'very little' but does anyone have these values?
Even in a protracted worldwide economic recession, barring a total collapse, is it credible that crude production/consumption will drop enough to make more than a small dent in previous predictions for the timing of peak oil on these boards?
I would say, we are pretty close to a total collapse of the banking system, world wide at the moment.
The situation has actually been pretty consistent the last couple of weeks.
We know we have started to receive a flood of imports of both crude oil and unleaded. It's pretty safe to assume that the level of these will be similar to last week, which was 10.3 crude oil and 1.4 unleaded, but perhaps we can assume a slight backing off of both (regression toward the mean).
We also know that the unleaded demand has been way lower than last year, and should be pretty close to last week's numbers.
We are pretty sure that the refinery system has recovered from the storm, although we do not know what "normal" is at the moment because of the terrible refining margins, etc. Refiners ran about 80% last week, no reason to think they will be dramatically different.
We also know that there was a major impact of the storms on Gulf production, so US production will probably stay at roughly 4 mbpd until the repairs can be made.
We also know that distillate use is still relatively low, it too has decreased a lot relative to last year.
So no problem to feed our spreadsheet, and come up with another large build in unleaded, about even in distillates, and a little build in crude oil.
Watch out for another soft week in the market, notwithstanding any macroeconomic stuff that happens.
Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2008 5:04 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
A guess and a comment from me.....
Comment: There was an SPR release request about then days ago, I think for two million barrels. I am not sure which week the release fell into but that could impact the numbers.
Guess: With things getting back to normal in the SE and prices coming down I am guessing we start to see a little pick up in products supplied, put me down for 9.1.
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