Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 10:52 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
Some Oil Cos Still Evaluating Dolly Before Restoring Ops
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
July 24, 2008 12:26 p.m.
HOUSTON (Dow Jones)--Some oil companies resumed normal operations in the Gulf of Mexico Thursday morning, while others are assessing the situation in the western portion of the Gulf before returning evacuated workers offshore and restoring output after the season's first hurricane.
Hurricane Dolly came on shore as a strong Category 2 storm midday Wednesday along South Padre Island, Texas, causing bad flooding and power outages in South Texas, but missing most key energy infrastructure.
BP PLC (BP) spokesman Tom Mueller said that BP's operations "are back to normal" after the company evacuated a small number of non-essential workers in the Gulf of Mexico. The company didn't suspend any production due to Dolly.
Chevron Corp. (CVX), another big player in the Gulf of Mexico, said it began bringing workers back offshore Wednesday afternoon and "should complete most of the remobilization efforts on Thursday," according to the company's web site.
But Apache Corp. (APA), which had evacuated 220 workers from the Gulf, was still assessing conditions, said spokesman Bill Mintz. The company currently 51 million cubic feet a day off-line.
"We're getting out on some of the platforms, but the winds are still too high to get helicopters to many platforms," Mintz said.
ExxonMobil Corp. (XOM) still has about 12,000 barrels a day of liquids and 100 million cubic feet of natural gas suspended.
"ExxonMobil is beginning its post-storm assessment process to verify the integrity of facilities impacted by the storm," spokesman Len D'Eramo said in an email. "Once we ensure that our systems are both safe and operational, we will return to normal operations."
WSJ _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
According to the NHC interactive hurricane tracking page, there were two tropical systems that hit this area over the last 10 years.
Hurricane Erika (2003) hit on August 16 of 2003:
Here are the total US imports for that time period:
Aug 01, 2003 10294
Aug 08, 2003 9970
Aug 15, 2003 9868
Aug 22, 2003 10246
Aug 29, 2003 10126
Sep 05, 2003 9648
going back into the WPSR archives, there was a .2 mbpd effect on PADD III imports (gulf coast) for that week versus the previous week.
Hurricane Bret hit on August 23, 1999
Aug 06, 1999 8578
Aug 13, 1999 8633
Aug 20, 1999 9053
Aug 27, 1999 9138
Sep 03, 1999 8305
Sep 10, 1999 8245
Sep 17, 1999 8809
Sep 24, 1999 8474
minimal effect on imports, according to the archive.
I have to think the impact of this storm could be .2-.4 mbpd on the report next week.
This week will be kind of fun, because we are trying to predict the effects of that hurricane that hit the south texas area last week.
Indications are, per the above, that there is a big backlog of ships outside the Houston ship channel, and also, Valero curtailed some of their operations in the Corpus area.
Also, we had the effects of the oil spillage in New Orleans that caused the lower mississippi river to be closed to all ship traffic for several days. The press suggested that most of the offloading in this area occurs at the LOOP and then the crude oil is pumped onshore via pipeline, but at the same time, they highlighted an oil tanker trying to get to Baton Rouge in the same article, so my guess is that there will also be an effect.
Also, we are going to have to check the refinery utilization. Last week I believe it was under 88%, which is unprecedented for this time of year, and there is no suggestion that it be any different this week.
So, I am going to predict 86.5% refinery utilization, and back working the production and inputs will give us just about 15 mbpd inputs, 8.9 unleaded production, and a little over 4.5 distillate production.
Our little demand model, which says .5 mbpd lower than last year, has proven to be pretty good for unleaded.
Crude oil imports should be affected by at least .2 mbpd if not more, and were already only going to be about 9.7, so I am thinking about 9.3 for crude oil, and 1.0 for unleaded.
So all of this adds up to a pretty substantial drawdown in unleaded and crude oil, and basically a break even situation in distillates.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sun Jul 27, 2008 6:46 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Thanks pup55.
In addition to refiners letting production intentionally slip some these last few weeks, there is the additional effect of the SemGroup $2.4 billion oil futures trading disaster to consider. [I won't even mention that SenGroup was massively short the oil futures market, since Congress has told us speculators only speculate on the price of oil going up.]
SemGroup buys about 500,000 bpd of oil from about 2,000 small oil producers, and stores that oil at the important futures dekivery point at Cushing, OK. It appears based upon Dow Jones news reports that SemGroup has been buying much less oil in the last six days, although there is no clear idea of how much less they are buying now.
Whether oil producers cut back production remains to be seen. However I think the immeadiate effect would be to reduce crude inventories at Cushing, and also, some refiners will be losing oil input and will cut back operations. So yes, we could well be at 86.5% utilization last week, and possibly even lower next week. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 5:29 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Diesel exports from the US may be near seasonal record levels this week, per trade reports, but this will show up in next's week report.
Refiners recover from Hurricane Dolly:
Quote:
US Refinery Operations Status:Total Restarts Port Arthur Units
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
July 28, 2008 8:30 a.m.
Total S.A. restarted units at its Port Arthur, Texas refinery, according to state environmental filing. The report said multiple units restarted, but did not specify which units were in restart. The start-up activities were expected to last from Sunday until Wednesday, the report said.
Hurricane Dolly prompted two Valero Energy Corp. (VL0) refineries to reduce run rates 10 to 20 percent because rough seas held-up shipments to the Port Arthur and Houston, a company spokesman. The Port Arthur began running at normal rates Friday and Houston was suppose to be up over the weekend, Valero spokesman Bill Day said Thursday. Day said the company's Corpus Christi refinery was unaffected by Dolly. Two weeks ago, a crane collapsed at LyondellBasell's Houston refinery, killing four. The incident has delayed the completion a turnaround on the coker unit that was expected to last for 16 days and be part of a larger 7-week-long work program. The company said Friday, it did not know when work on the coker could begin.
WSJ _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 6:49 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
Crude oil stocks probably fell by 1.4 million barrels and gasoline dropped by 100,000 barrels, analysts said in a Reuters poll. Distillates inventories are expected to rise by 1.7 million barrels.
Analysts anticipate a 900,000-barrel drop in oil inventories, but a 100,000-barrel increase in gasoline stockpiles and a 1.7 million-barrel increase in heating oil inventories for the week ended July 25, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey.
Notice that during May 2007, levels stayed about even.
In May 2008, they dropped 18.8 million barrels.
During June 2007, the inventory increased 11.7 Mb
In June 2008, it fell 7.0 Mb, a swing of 18.7 Mb
11 weeks ago, the Crude Stocks were 15.6 Mb below last years. Today they are 55.7 Mb lower than this time last year.
July is shaping up to be about even with 2007.
If this trend of stock levels staying even with 2007, or falling significantly each month in comparison continues, then I anticipate a best case scenario of stock levels falling at the same rate as last year.
This will happen unless either imports increase compared to last year (currently they are lower!), or demand decreases very significantly.
It is entirely possible that US Crude Stocks will be 264 Mb in 8 weeks from now, and if the trend from July 2007 to January 2008 continues from now until January 2009, then stocks will fall to about 227 Mb. This is in 24 weeks.
The question is: How low will stocks go before traders get worried about them and start sending the price back up?
Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2008 8:32 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Last year when gasoline hit 193 mb we saw shortages start to appear in the Mid West. That was 23 mb above the EIA estimate of 170 mb for gasoline MOI. With estimates of MOI for crude at 270 mb we are again 23 mb above that point. Whether crude inventory can be mapped onto gasoline inventory is completely unknown, but it appears we will soon find out.
If crude supply becomes a problem, we should see refinery utilization going down, when it should be going up - as the refineries try to mix and match anything that is in the tanks.
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4913 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2008 10:15 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending July 25, 2008
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged nearly 15.2 million barrels per day
during the week ending July 25, up 50 thousand barrels per day from the previous
week's average. Refineries operated at 87.2 percent of their operable capacity
last week. Gasoline production fell last week, averaging 9.0 million barrels per
day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging
4.7 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 10.0 million barrels per day last week, up 199
thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude
oil imports have averaged 10.0 million barrels per day, 123 thousand barrels per
day above the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports
including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week
averaged about 1.0 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 121
thousand barrels per day last week.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.1 million barrels from the previous week. At
295.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the lower half of the
average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased
by 3.5 million barrels last week, and are near the upper boundary of the average
range. Both finished gasoline inventories and gasoline blending components
inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.4
million barrels, and are in the upper half of the average range for this time of
year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 0.5 million barrels last week
but remain below the lower limit of the average range. Total commercial
petroleum inventories increased by 2.6 million barrels last week, and are in the
lower half of the average range for this time of year.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged nearly 20.2
million barrels per day, down by 2.4 percent compared to the similar period last
year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged nearly 9.4
million barrels per day, down by 2.4 percent from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel demand has averaged about 4.2 million barrels per day over the
last four weeks, up by 4.0 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel
demand is 6.8 percent lower over the last four weeks compared to the same
four-week period last year.
Imports of crude oil remained inexplicably high, despite the hurricane, ship channel closure, and oil spillage at NOLA. I am a little suspicious of this, and think we are apt to see a delayed reporting of this disruption.
Refinery utilization remains at an unprecedented low, for this time of year, and almost a low for "any" time of year. Right now, in one of those refineries, the managers are sitting around in a meeting, trying to decide whether to make some investment in improved capacity or increased throughput. The accounting department is saying "forget it.... the utilization of our existing capacity is not enough right now to justify squat for investment, plus we do not have a good pricing forecast at this point.... so any hope you have of adding capacity to this refinery would be silly". So, no new refinery capacity will be added under the current situation.
Our little demand model for unleaded was right on the money. In fact, I was able to out-forecast the analysts on unleaded again this week. I am 18-12 thus far this year vs. the analysts on unleaded, despite a six week dry spell while I got my model recalibrated.
In distillates, I was off .2 on production, which was 100% of my deviation from reality.
Another week of fun ahead.... maybe the hurricane effects will show up next week.
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