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heroineworshipper
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Jul 14, 2006
Posts: 727
Location: Calif*
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 Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 6:00 pm Post subject: Dieoff counter |
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The moments when death rate exceeds birth rate get more & more frequent.
Got to keep score as the habitable space runs out, people get crammed into less survivable places, & the natural resources run out. Even better, a dieoff counter.
7.9 earthquake in China: 10k
hurricane in Myanmar : 63k
2004 tsunami: 225k
terrorism since 2001: 1000k
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dbruning
Heavy Crude
Joined: Sep 13, 2006
Posts: 291
Location: Vancouver Island
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| Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 6:30 pm Post subject: Re: Dieoff counter |
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Actually that is a pretty cool idea,
We have tons of global population counters, is there such a thing as an offical daily estimated global death counter?
Might be interesting to leave the 2 running on a page with the difference and keep track of when we finally hit parity.
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DomusAlbion
Moderator
Joined: Dec 08, 2004
Posts: 1633
Location: Nez Perce Nation
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| Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 6:42 pm Post subject: Re: Dieoff counter |
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These are insignificant numbers. The world needs a death rate of at least 1 million people per day, just to gradually reduce the population to a more sustainable level.
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"It will be a dark time. But for those who survive, I suspect it will be rather exciting."
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Lumpy
Heavy Crude
Joined: Nov 16, 2007
Posts: 305
Location: Rural Western Idaho
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| Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 7:19 pm Post subject: Re: Dieoff counter |
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| DomusAlbion wrote: | | These are insignificant numbers. The world needs a death rate of at least 1 million people per day, just to gradually reduce the population to a more sustainable level. |
Do you mean 1 million people over and above the "normal" death rate?
What is the "normal death rate" per day, anyway?
Lumpy
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DomusAlbion
Moderator
Joined: Dec 08, 2004
Posts: 1633
Location: Nez Perce Nation
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| Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 7:22 pm Post subject: Re: Dieoff counter |
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A rough guess on my part is 150,000 deaths per day in the entire world. This has to increase substatially or we will be overrun with humans in no time.
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"Modern Agriculture is the use of land to convert petroleum into food."
-- Albert Bartlett
"It will be a dark time. But for those who survive, I suspect it will be rather exciting."
-- James Lovelock |
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killJOY
Fission
Joined: Feb 21, 2005
Posts: 2509
Location: ^NNE^
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| Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 7:41 pm Post subject: Re: Dieoff counter |
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Just one of these is inconceivable to me:
Are we really prepared for what's to come? |
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Pretorian
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Apr 08, 2006
Posts: 1433
Location: Somewhere there
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| Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 8:14 pm Post subject: Re: Dieoff counter |
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| yea, it sure easier to operate with thousands and millions than with a few pictures like that. On the other hand, would they give a crap about your tragedy? they've had a bet going on on TV on how many children will die in Beslan for Fark's sake. |
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Shannymara
Moderator
Joined: Oct 04, 2004
Posts: 5651
Location: Body in OK, Heart in TX
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| Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 8:22 pm Post subject: Re: Dieoff counter |
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| Tapas wrote: | Consider this. Our current human population is 6.4 billion. The world
can sustain 1 billion without oil.
Even if we are able to stop population growth by a social miracle, we
are already in excess by 5.4 billion. This is the number that would
ultimately perish through starvation, famine, disease, warfare, etc
during the Peak Oil Cliff years spanning 2012 through 2030.
We are looking at losing 5,400,000,000 humans in a span of 18 years.
This amounts to an average of 821,917 deaths every day for 18 years.
The recent tsunami claimed 200,000 lives. Imagine the loss of human
lives in terms of 4 tsunamis striking each day, every day for 18
years. |
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic4672.html
What killJOY said. There is no way to be prepared for something like such a dieoff, any more than you can be prepared for becoming a parent, losing a child, losing a parent, losing your legs... None of us know what it will be like or feel like unless we've lived it. I certainly haven't, though I've been through a lot more crap than most Americans.
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Ludi
NeoMaster
Joined: Dec 27, 2004
Posts: 13064
Location: naive idiot fantasy world
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| Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 8:24 pm Post subject: Re: Dieoff counter |
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| Shannymara wrote: | | None of us know what it will be like or feel like unless we've lived it. |
The main point of a "die-off" is that you don't "live it."
I certainly don't plan to! 
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Revi
Fusion
Joined: Apr 25, 2005
Posts: 3454
Location: Maine
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| Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 8:39 pm Post subject: Re: Dieoff counter |
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I think that it will be like the tsunami, or New Orleans. We'll hear about it, but we won't know exactly what's going on. Life will be so hard to take that a lot of people will check out.
Children of Men was an glimpse of the future. The part about no more children was not that believable, but the general running down of everything was very accurate.
Life ain't no picnic for a lot of people around here. I think it will be more like that in the whole country. Winter is the big problem around here. Other places it will be the dry season.
Fossil fuels have insulated us from nature for a long time. Imagine hiking 20 miles in a snowstorm with a sled to get food. Cutting all your wood with a hand saw and dragging it in from the woods. Cooking up old pieces of leather to flavor a stew. Gutting a squirrel or a pidgeon. How many of us would want to live in a world like that? We'll find out soon enough.
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Shannymara
Moderator
Joined: Oct 04, 2004
Posts: 5651
Location: Body in OK, Heart in TX
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| Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 9:40 pm Post subject: Re: Dieoff counter |
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| Ludi wrote: | The main point of a "die-off" is that you don't "live it."
I certainly don't plan to! |
I do. I have a son to care for, and I've always been a survivor. I'll fight (if I have to - I would prefer not to fight) to survive until I die. That's one thing I do know.
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"Every junkie's like a setting sun..." - Neil Young |
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Barbara
Light Sweet Crude
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Joined: May 26, 2004
Posts: 1195
Location: Zoorope
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| Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 5:01 am Post subject: Re: Dieoff counter |
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| Revi wrote: | | Imagine hiking 20 miles in a snowstorm with a sled to get food. Cutting all your wood with a hand saw and dragging it in from the woods. Cooking up old pieces of leather to flavor a stew. |
And all this while getting older.
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Objects in the rear view mirror
are closer than they appear. |
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kpeavey
Expert
Joined: Oct 04, 2004
Posts: 1315
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| Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 7:53 am Post subject: Re: Dieoff counter |
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KillJOY wrote: | Quote: | | Are we really prepared for what's to come? |
I lost a friend last November, the day before Thanksgiving, 35 years old. It hit my buddy hard. I was their Best Man.
There are some things for which there can be no preparation.
While I have no children of my own, I do have 5 nephews. They are important to me. The Die Off is expected to take a high toll on the young, as they are not fully physically developed or strengthened to withstand hardship. The loss of my friend was, and still is, difficult to bear. The loss of a nephew would be more so. The loss of my own child I can not fathom.
While a counter would be an interesting statistic, it will be a solemn time. In respect for the lost souls, as well as the bereaved, I think that such a device would be crude and vulgar.
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If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face--for ever."
-George Orwell, 1984
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FreakOil
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Mar 04, 2007
Posts: 504
Location: Hong Kong
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| Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 8:28 am Post subject: Re: Dieoff counter |
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| kpeavey wrote: | | While a counter would be an interesting statistic, it will be a solemn time. In respect for the lost souls, as well as the bereaved, I think that such a device would be crude and vulgar. |
That's true. More importantly, it would be perceived as horribly vulgar by everybody who views this web site for the first time, and it would reflect horribly on us. But I'm willing to make that sacrifice.
Most of the posters here talk about dieoff dispassionately. There are a few posters like Jack who revel in the prospect of millions dying for their popcorn-munching amusement, but they are the minority. We need some way of measuring this.
I'm not sure this site will even be up when the number dying each day meets and exceeds the number born, but I'd like to be able to see those lines coming closer and correlate it with current events and other statistics to have the most coherent understanding possible about what's going on.
Perhaps we could run an explanation of why the "dieoff counter" has been established? Maybe if people knew the purpose they wouldn't be so repulsed?
*Question: Could we even get reliable death/birth statistics often enough to make this worthwhile?
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Ferretlover
Moderator
Joined: Jun 13, 2007
Posts: 3859
Location: Minniesotuh
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| Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 9:03 am Post subject: Re: Dieoff counter |
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| FreakOil wrote: | Most of the posters here talk about dieoff dispassionately. There are a few posters like Jack who revel in the prospect of millions dying for their popcorn-munching amusement, but they are the minority. We need some way of measuring this.
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I (would like to think) talking about the dieoff dispassionately is how many deal with the horror-a coping mechanism, much like gallows humor. It is not as painful to know about thousands of deaths somewhere faraway as it would be to see and know about the death of a loved one. I lost a sister and a step-sister, both 51, last year. One who suffered for eight months, and one suddenly. Those deaths are real to me. People thousands of miles away, with whom I've had no contact, just barely seem real.
While I do not actively go out and seek the death of others, I understand that a great many deaths will be necessary to ensure the ultimate survival of the species. I've been trying to think of the wording of a saying along the lines of "the sacrifice of one to save the many." I think that will need to be reversed.
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