How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Joined: Feb 02, 2006 Posts: 286 Location: Denver, USA
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 5:36 pm Post subject: Re: High Fuel Costs Threaten Bankruptcy for Truckers
I think the railroads claim that they can transport 1 ton 400 miles on 1 gallon of fuel. That sounds pretty good. Electrification would probably be better - especially as the cost of diesel skyrockets.
Um, but shouldn't the US have started expanding rail years ago? _________________ "It is certain that free societies would have no easy time in a future dark age. The rapid return to universal penury will be accomplished by violence and cruelties of a kind now forgotten." - Roberto Vacca, The Coming Dark Age
Joined: Feb 02, 2006 Posts: 286 Location: Denver, USA
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 5:48 pm Post subject: Re: High Fuel Costs Threaten Bankruptcy for Truckers
Release the hounds! _________________ "It is certain that free societies would have no easy time in a future dark age. The rapid return to universal penury will be accomplished by violence and cruelties of a kind now forgotten." - Roberto Vacca, The Coming Dark Age
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 7:52 pm Post subject: Re: High Fuel Costs Threaten Bankruptcy for Truckers
Bill asked for my take on the previous page so here goes.
I just talked to a kid last week who said he's selling his rig asap. He's had it ten months, paid 65, and figures he'll get 55 for it. He said he's spending 4k a week in fuel, just to run to kentucky and back to ontario.
I thought his numbers were way off till I added up my truck's fuel bill. Another driver and I put on about 11,000 kms a month and the fuel cost for that is 6500 bucks. 11000 kms/month is peanuts in the trucking business.
Most O/O's will run as many miles as they can get and I'd think 5000 kms a week would be easily doable. The kid's 4000$ fuel bill per week is completely believable.
There are going to be a lot of brokers, and trucking firms, going belly up soon.
Joined: May 18, 2006 Posts: 3832 Location: Minneapolis, MN
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 8:08 pm Post subject: Re: High Fuel Costs Threaten Bankruptcy for Truckers
drew wrote:
Bill asked for my take on the previous page so here goes.
I just talked to a kid last week who said he's selling his rig asap. He's had it ten months, paid 65, and figures he'll get 55 for it. He said he's spending 4k a week in fuel, just to run to kentucky and back to ontario.
I thought his numbers were way off till I added up my truck's fuel bill. Another driver and I put on about 11,000 kms a month and the fuel cost for that is 6500 bucks. 11000 kms/month is peanuts in the trucking business.
Most O/O's will run as many miles as they can get and I'd think 5000 kms a week would be easily doable. The kid's 4000$ fuel bill per week is completely believable.
There are going to be a lot of brokers, and trucking firms, going belly up soon.
Drew
One of my friends is small trucking broker. How long will he last?
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 10:38 pm Post subject: Re: High Fuel Costs Threaten Bankruptcy for Truckers
yesplease wrote:
cube wrote:
I once took an auto shop class and what most people don't know is that there's this concept called "stoichiometric ratio". That's the perfect air : fuel ratio of 14.7 to 1 where an engine is most efficient. It's very difficult to attain this ratio with a regular car.
Except for everything built with an oxygen sensor, which is probably everything built within the last two or three decades.
Do you have some type of mental health issue which causes you to be a habitual liar?
Even with oxygen sensors (and a lot more sensors) it is difficult to attain a perfect ratio.
But it is possible to stay with a range. (the "tighter" the range you can keep the more efficient)
There are too many changing variables like RPM and load....making it impossible to hit the sweet spot every time.
Why do you keep on pulling sh!t out of your ass and try to pass it off as the truth?
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 11:54 pm Post subject: Re: High Fuel Costs Threaten Bankruptcy for Truckers
cube wrote:
yesplease wrote:
cube wrote:
I once took an auto shop class and what most people don't know is that there's this concept called "stoichiometric ratio". That's the perfect air : fuel ratio of 14.7 to 1 where an engine is most efficient. It's very difficult to attain this ratio with a regular car.
Except for everything built with an oxygen sensor, which is probably everything built within the last two or three decades.
Do you have some type of mental health issue which causes you to be a habitual liar?
Patent 4140611 wrote:
In order to achieve a precise control of the exhaust gas so that the stoichiometric ratio is maintained, the oxygen concentration in the exhaust gas is detected by an oxygen sensor and, in response to the output signal of the sensor, auxiliary air is supplied to the exhaust gas. Such an oxygen sensor is called an O 2 sensor or a λ sensor.
I'm sorry I get my information from SAE papers and not an auto shop class I took way back when. In light of your last post, I imagine, it must be very hard for you to read and correctly understand these kinds of things.
cube wrote:
That's the perfect air : fuel ratio of 14.7 to 1 where an engine is most efficient.
Wikipedia wrote:
If modifications cause the mixture to run lean, there will be a slight increase in fuel economy, but a great increase in nitrogen oxide emissions
cube wrote:
There are too many changing variables like RPM and load....making it impossible to hit the sweet spot every time.
Except for during closed loop operation...
Wikipedia wrote:
Closed-loop feedback-controlled fuel injection varies the fuel injector output according to real-time sensor data rather than operating with a predetermined (open-loop) fuel map. In addition to improving overall engine operation, they reduce the amounts of both unburnt fuel and oxides of nitrogen from entering the atmosphere.
Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 1:38 am Post subject: Re: High Fuel Costs Threaten Bankruptcy for Truckers
Cube, you are evil! ; - ))
Thanks Drew.
I would think that diesel electric would be the most competitive in low density areas and for very long cross-country hauls as the cost to electrify rails would be prohibitively expensive.
As Mechler says, a ton of frieght, 400 miles on a gallon of diesel is pretty efficient in the first place. Those are the same numbers that the BNR gives as well.
When you get less efficient long haul trucks off the road that frees up that volume of diesel for trains. On the other hand diesel electric engines can also run on bio-diesel. I assume even coal to liquids.
On the other hand, in urban areas there is nothing wrong with electric powered trains using stationary sources of power. At least in the initial stages of post peak oil depletion it will be cost and a shortage of liquid fuels versus late stage oil depletion when there may be shortages of available energy.
GE, MS, Credit Suisse, ING and others have been busy launching large infrastructure funds. They must see a future profit in investing in the infrastructure that will be sorely needed as our existing infrastructure wears out and its replacement will be very expensive to build and maintain due to permanently higher energy costs.
The question still remains is it too little too late? _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 2:22 am Post subject: Re: High Fuel Costs Threaten Bankruptcy for Truckers
MrBill wrote:
Cube, you are evil! ; - ))
Thanks Drew.
I would think that diesel electric would be the most competitive in low density areas and for very long cross-country hauls as the cost to electrify rails would be prohibitively expensive.
ohh you mean diesel electric rails? yeah that's fine. I'm just saying diesel electric hybrid long haul trucks just aren't going to happen.
*getting back to railroads*
Electrifying a rail only makes sense if there's a super high demand for it. For example in a city, an electrified passenger train might run twice an hour. (48/day) For cargo freight, trains might only run across the same track twice a day. (2/day) In other words electrifying passenger rails makes sense because you're using it 24 times as much therefore you're getting your moneys worth out of electrification. So I agree with you, "cost to electrify rails would be prohibitively expensive."....for freight.
but.......
In a "long emergency" scenario I see the USA becoming somewhat similar to Russia is right now. Russia has it's own version of a transcontinental railway called the Trans-Siberian Railway. (shared by both passenger and freight trains) However they actually electrified there's! In a country where not everybody can afford a car and therefore are more reliant on rails for cross country transport I guess that makes sense. Will there be electric trains (freight and passenger) running between Los Angeles and New York in the future? maybe yes. However it's not going to be sexy. It'll be a lot slower than an airliner assuming domestic airlines still exist in a post PO world. Who knows? Maybe that will literally be the only way to travel cross country in the future? That sounds awfully inconvenient.
Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 2:40 am Post subject: Re: High Fuel Costs Threaten Bankruptcy for Truckers
The Soviets chose their own path of development with regards to centralization. Railways were particularly suited to Russia (USSR) - still the world's largest country by landmass - and the fact that sparsely populated areas dotted with cities could be well serviced by rail. But it was also about political control over the economy.
Roads were not an option as much of the country is permafrost, swamp and other unmanagable terrain. Not impossible, but expensive. There is only one road that crosses all of Russia and it has only been completed in the last 5-10 years. Even then it is not passible year round and in places four wheel drive is needed.
To be honest I do not know whether Russia has more rail than the USA or vice versa? I would suspect not? However, it is still a valuable fixed asset. Especially now as they use it to ship petroleum east to China. But it is still a government monopoly, so the political control issue is still very current.
I think ironically, but not surprisingly, it is easier for an autocratic regime to deal with large infrastructure projects like Russia (China) expanding its rail network than a social democracy with many stakeholders each with their own interests. Russia does not have to make a profit per se whereas American railways not only have to balance the needs of its many stakeholders, but must also generate a profit for its shareholders. Never the less if it was for the greater good public subsidies would speed development and help spread the costs. _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Last edited by MrBill on Wed May 14, 2008 3:17 am; edited 1 time in total
The question still remains is it too little too late?
I worked for a LTL during a couple years of college and like anyone else they undoubtedly felt the pinch of higher oil prices and have been tossing whatever they can on rail, which is probably why a local rail bottleneck was expanded recently. Since rail is so much more efficient than tractor-trailers for freight transportation, we use enough energy via autos in the states in one year to supply over a half century of freight transport via rail. BTL seems to be serious, and I imagine the cellulosic waste products could contribute significantly to industry's efficient use of of liquid fuel given how small it is. Personal transportation will eventually have to be electrified, and that time isn't too far off if oil keeps up it's march and settles around $200-250/bbl. It's at cost parity with gasoline for most vehicles right now, and newer batteries will only compound this. The newer ones are cheap enough to be at cost parity with gas at $4/gallon if the driver is efficient and can average 50mpUSg at 60mph in a midsize sedan, so if oil stays at $200/barrel and gas at $6.50/gal, it would put battery tech in the driver's seat IMO. _________________
Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 2:21 pm Post subject: Re: High Fuel Costs Threaten Bankruptcy for Truckers
vision-master wrote:
One of my friends is small trucking broker. How long will he last?
It depends on how deep he's willing to go into debt in order to remain in business.
I talked to the kid again this morning and he told me he's probably going to hand the keys back to GMAC. He says no one will buy his rig in this environment.
What put him off the rails was a 5 week strike at American Axle which he was just starting to recover from until his driver quit on him.
Without these bad events he was breaking even a bit and paying down some of his debt.
Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 2:29 pm Post subject: Re: High Fuel Costs Threaten Bankruptcy for Truckers
cube wrote:
I'm just saying diesel electric hybrid long haul trucks just aren't going to happen.
I completely agree. Hybrids only shine in start/stop environments, not running down the highway. A big diesel hybrid would need prohibitively expensive regenerative braking to offset the enormous demands on the drive train when accelerating. In addition really big (marine) diesels approach 50% thermal efficiency, and truck engines cant be too too far from that (lots of drive train losses, I know). A hybrid will have the same frictional losses, so I can't see what would be gained in all honesty.
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6371 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 2:46 pm Post subject: Re: High Fuel Costs Threaten Bankruptcy for Truckers
I heard the 450-some-odd/miles/ton/gal figure too on NPR just the other day. The problem as we all know is reviving all those old rail beds for more local stops.
I have a map of our county in 1904 and there were more miles of rail than there are state highways today.
Just a personal anecdote, Susan's nephew (an independent trucker from California) bought 20 acres up the road from us last fall thinking he could have it paid off in a couple years but is about to throw in the towel. _________________ Make a plan and work it:
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