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TonyPrep
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Sep 25, 2005
Posts: 1792
Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
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 Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 5:28 am Post subject: IEA OMR for April 2008 |
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The highlights of the latest Oil Market Report estimates oil production fell 400kbpd in April, to 86.8 mbpd. This implies a markdown in the March figure from 87.34 to about 87.2 mbpd.
The IEA are now estimating demand of only 86.8 mbpd in 2008. So production will have to stay close to April's level to avoid major stock draws. Only about 6 months ago, the IEA was predicting demand of 88.2 mbpd, in 2008. |
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FreddyH
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jan 14, 2008
Posts: 321
Location: The Yukon
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| Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 2:14 pm Post subject: Re: IEA OMR for April 2008 |
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The differential of 1.4-mbd from EIA stats is getting a bit absurd. It is based on IEA's failure to address energy inputs for BTL, heavy, x-heavy & bitumen processing.
As the TrendLines charts come up for update this month, i've been deleting references to their recent records and/or using EIA data instead:
_________________
www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits) |
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thuja
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Oct 15, 2005
Posts: 1429
Location: Portland, Oregon
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| Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 3:15 pm Post subject: Re: IEA OMR for April 2008 |
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| Hey smart folks- Can you educate me a bit better to the figures they are using. Is that total crude and condensates (all liquids) they are talking about? Is there a separate place to find out exact crude oil production figures? Thanks. |
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TonyPrep
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Sep 25, 2005
Posts: 1792
Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
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| Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 12:09 am Post subject: Re: IEA OMR for April 2008 |
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| FreddyH wrote: | | The differential of 1.4-mbd from EIA stats is getting a bit absurd. It is based on IEA's failure to address energy inputs for BTL, heavy, x-heavy & bitumen processing. |
Do you know if IEA estimates for consumption are 1.4 mbpd higher than the EIA figures? I don't think this information is readily available, though the EIA do show monthly estimates for consumption, in their STEO. |
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TonyPrep
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Sep 25, 2005
Posts: 1792
Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
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| Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 12:13 am Post subject: Re: IEA OMR for April 2008 |
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| thuja wrote: | | Hey smart folks- Can you educate me a bit better to the figures they are using. Is that total crude and condensates (all liquids) they are talking about? Is there a separate place to find out exact crude oil production figures? Thanks. |
The EIA data is broken down somewhat in their monthy report but I'm not sure it's all the breakdown you'd like. |
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FreddyH
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jan 14, 2008
Posts: 321
Location: The Yukon
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| Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 11:22 pm Post subject: Re: IEA OMR for April 2008 |
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| TonyPrep wrote: | | FreddyH wrote: | | The differential of 1.4-mbd from EIA stats is getting a bit absurd. It is based on IEA's failure to address energy inputs for BTL, heavy, x-heavy & bitumen processing. |
Do you know if IEA estimates for consumption are 1.4 mbpd higher than the EIA figures? I don't think this information is readily available, though the EIA do show monthly estimates for consumption, in their STEO. |
IEA consumption is 0.9-mbd higher than EIA for March/April. BTW, March figures are for Q1 ... not March monthly.
_________________
www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits) |
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TonyPrep
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Sep 25, 2005
Posts: 1792
Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
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| Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 3:19 am Post subject: Re: IEA OMR for April 2008 |
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| FreddyH wrote: | | TonyPrep wrote: | | FreddyH wrote: | | The differential of 1.4-mbd from EIA stats is getting a bit absurd. It is based on IEA's failure to address energy inputs for BTL, heavy, x-heavy & bitumen processing. |
Do you know if IEA estimates for consumption are 1.4 mbpd higher than the EIA figures? I don't think this information is readily available, though the EIA do show monthly estimates for consumption, in their STEO. |
IEA consumption is 0.9-mbd higher than EIA for March/April. BTW, March figures are for Q1 ... not March monthly. |
Well, I guess that most of the production difference is accounted for in a higher consumption figure. That still leaves 0.5 mbpd extra, on the IEA figures (though I think the 1.4 gap may have narrowed this month). |
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