We cannot drill our way out of this oil crisis. Since 2000, oil companies working in the U.S. have doubled the number of wells drilled per year.
Although increased drilling has added new oil to the nation's supply, it has not done so fast enough to offset the terminal decline of existing fields.
We are going to have to import more of our oil. Period.
Joined: Oct 15, 2005 Posts: 1429 Location: Portland, Oregon
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 3:42 pm Post subject: No more trips to Bangkok
OK- on the list of painful side effects of Peak Oil, this isnt probably on the top ten, but man- a ticket to Bangkok (where my bro lives) costs 1500$ now. I have one kid so that would mean 4500$ just to get there. Sorry- game over. Too pricey. We ain't ever flying to Bangkok again.
And then it hit me- my daughter will likely never leave North America in her life. PLane travel will be far too expesnive to ever travel in the future. I think of where I've gone in my life- Europe, Australia, Asia, Latin America. Those were very formative experiences for me. And in just a few years its become apparent that that option is pretty much gone for most of the next generation. Us 20 and 30-somethings had the last go at it. Sorry nextgen...at least you can visit these places virtually on the web.
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 4:08 pm Post subject: Re: No more trips to Bangkok
If she becomes a CEO she will. Prices R only going up for workers. Executive compensation is keeping up just fine. _________________ People first, then things, then dollars.
Joined: Aug 30, 2005 Posts: 244 Location: Second Vermont Republic
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 4:29 pm Post subject: Re: No more trips to Bangkok
No, it will probably revert to the costs you might have seen fifty years ago. Plenty of people still traveled to Europe. You either had decent (but not fantastic) money or you did a one-time, see Europe in six or eight weeks sort of trip and took a boat.
The type of trip that's likely to end is the "middle class jet to Paris for a long weekend" sort of excursion.
Joined: Jun 13, 2007 Posts: 2722 Location: Minniesotuh
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 4:32 pm Post subject: Re: No more trips to Bangkok
Good thing Canaries (in the mindshaft) don't have to depend on airplanes to get around!
When I went to Austin last summer to visit my sister, I knew it was the last time I would fly.
Maybe I'll just buy some coffee-table books about the countries I would have liked to see, but never will. ...sigh... _________________ "RRrrruuuunnnn!!!" ~Apocalypto
Joined: Jun 05, 2005 Posts: 331 Location: Portland Oregon, USA
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 4:33 pm Post subject: Re: No more trips to Bangkok
I've had those thoughts on behalf of my kids, too. In my family, everyone has travelled fairly extensively and there is almost an expectation that intercontinental travel will continue to happen for us forever. Just looking at what it would cost for my family of 4 to go to Europe is already prohibitively high. It's only going to worse.
Joined: Oct 15, 2005 Posts: 1429 Location: Portland, Oregon
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 4:33 pm Post subject: Re: No more trips to Bangkok
KingM wrote:
No, it will probably revert to the costs you might have seen fifty years ago. Plenty of people still traveled to Europe. You either had decent (but not fantastic) money or you did a one-time, see Europe in six or eight weeks sort of trip and took a boat.
The type of trip that's likely to end is the "middle class jet to Paris for a long weekend" sort of excursion.
Yeah that's going away today- but I'm suggesting that in a few short years- even that may be a memory. Seriously upward pressure on the price of oil is likely to carry it to at least 200$/barrel conservatively in the next few years.
Except for upper middle and upper class folks, most people will priced out of international travel unless it is strictly for business.
IN fifteen years by the time my daughter is 16? Do you really think we will be able to fly much at all? Only the very wealthy at that point...
Joined: Jun 05, 2005 Posts: 331 Location: Portland Oregon, USA
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 5:01 pm Post subject: Re: No more trips to Bangkok
Maybe look at the bright side: quiter, cleaner skies, fewer government givaways to the airlines, not to mention localization of culture and recreation.
-Ian
PS: another job with potential for travel post peak: relief work, ie. Doctors without Borders and Mercy Corps. Unfortunately a growth industry of the future...
Joined: Sep 19, 2007 Posts: 887 Location: Land of the Tongva tribe
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 5:25 pm Post subject: Re: No more trips to Bangkok
Im looking forward to less people being on the plane when I fly.
joeltrout _________________ ENERGY is the basis of our industrial civilization and sustains our standard of living. It is the foundation stone of our national wealth. A nation starved of energy.....will be a nation of starving people.
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 5:26 pm Post subject: Re: No more trips to Bangkok
I agree that air travel is about gone for the middle clas, or will be soon. I guess people will think I'm strange, but I never wanted to go anywhere far away. I've been to all 4 edges of the US, and to Canada, but always on business trips. I always enjoyed meeting new people from different backgrounds, but I counted the minutes until I could get HOME again! My co-workers always wanted to travel at company expense, so more than once I finagled it so THEY could go, and I wouldn't have to.
Everything unfamiliar, and hard to get the most basic things done, and expensive as all get out to boot. It boggles my mind why people want to go. My thinking was always that if there were someplace I would rather be, I would simply MOVE there, permanently, so I'd never have to travel again, and be happy there.
I recall the hassle of getting on a plane with a carry-on full of precision tools for inspecting equipment my company was buying. Once there was a Xerox repairman in front of me in line with one of those aluminum cases full of tiny tools, each in it's own slot. At 4:30 AM, the girl at the check in told him he would have to empty it to look at. His reply, "I've been 36 hours without sleep, and I'm not unpacking anything! YOU can unpack it if you want, but you'd better put each thing back EXACTLY where you got it, or me and your boss are going to have a heart-to-heart talk!!" She flipped through the layers of stuff and shooed him on through. Imagine how different that scene would be today, with paranoids everywhere! I'd guess that he is out of a job, and some guy in India is telling the customer on the phone how to fix the copy machine. _________________ Local fix-it guy..
Joined: Dec 18, 2004 Posts: 3584 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 6:13 pm Post subject: Re: No more trips to Bangkok
thuja wrote:
OK- on the list of painful side effects of Peak Oil, this isnt probably on the top ten, but man- a ticket to Bangkok (where my bro lives) costs 1500$ now. I have one kid so that would mean 4500$ just to get there. Sorry- game over. Too pricey. We ain't ever flying to Bangkok again.
And then it hit me- my daughter will likely never leave North America in her life. PLane travel will be far too expesnive to ever travel in the future. I think of where I've gone in my life- Europe, Australia, Asia, Latin America. Those were very formative experiences for me. And in just a few years its become apparent that that option is pretty much gone for most of the next generation. Us 20 and 30-somethings had the last go at it. Sorry nextgen...at least you can visit these places virtually on the web.
Yup. No kidding!
We all travel to Singapore, Japan and Malaysia once a year. For the past few years I've been telling everyone to really enjoy these trips because at some point they will be too costly. We go again in a few weeks. Each time it's a bit closer to the final journey. I occasionally remind them that prior to 1950 it took several years wages (typical US worker) to fly one person across the Pacific Ocean and back just as it will in a few years.
Soon it will only be business exec's, government employees, military, and the wealthy occupying airplane seats, just as it was a few decades ago. _________________ Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha
Soon it will only be business exec's, government employees, military, and the wealthy occupying airplane seats, just as it was a few decades ago.
If you are traveling there once a year I would consider yourself in the wealthy category.
joeltrout _________________ ENERGY is the basis of our industrial civilization and sustains our standard of living. It is the foundation stone of our national wealth. A nation starved of energy.....will be a nation of starving people.
Soon it will only be business exec's, government employees, military, and the wealthy occupying airplane seats, just as it was a few decades ago.
If you are traveling there once a year I would consider yourself in the wealthy category.
joeltrout
Not even close. It's a matter of priorities. When we started 15 years ago we spent about $2,000 on tickets and rooms were fairly cheap if you know where to go. A couple of paychecks. We travel light and buy little. Basically the trips cost us about the same as gas does now for an SUV commuter. Or annual depreciation on a new car or nice motorcycle.
That's not the case anymore. So we'll be winding up the adventure any year now, depending on how fast the collapse arrives. _________________ Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha
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