Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 4:01 pm Post subject: Newbie here
Hello,
I have recently started reading about Peak Oil, although I had heard of the concept as early as the end of last century.
I'm 25 years old, of Portuguese nationality but living in Sweden with my Chinese girlfriend. I use no car, and electricity production here is almost exclusively hydro/nuclear, so I can't do much more in terms of saving energy (I've always tried not to waste it though).
After ~2 days of reading this forum, I'm a bit terrified with all the doom prophecies going around. I'm in between believing those and not believing them, although I am thinking of preparing for an eventual sudden social crisis (mainly in terms of food, water purification means and perhaps learning how to garden).
I could say a lot of what I think about what I've read here so far, but I think I'll let my brain digest all the information for a while longer. I consider myself a smart person, but the information regarding peak oil is a bit overwhelming - I hadn't felt so confused in quite a while!
I hope to stick around and learn more. Cheers!
PS: One of the things which scares me is how/whether I'd be able to connect with family in my home country in the event of a serious crisis. The same goes for my girlfriend's family in China, I'm even scared of talking about this with her.
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 3897 Location: Graceland
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 4:06 pm Post subject: Re: Newbie here
Welcome!
There has been a slow trickle of people just like you lately.
The first two years of peak oil awareness are the most fun. After that, it's basically just watching society fall apart, making personal preparations and developing your gallows humor.
So you've got a pretty exciting couple of years to look forward to.
Enjoy! _________________ Our window of opportunity is slowly closing...at the same time, it probably requires a spiral of adversity. In other words, things have to get worse before they can get better.
-M. King Hubbert, 1983
Joined: Oct 15, 2005 Posts: 1440 Location: Portland, Oregon
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 4:09 pm Post subject: Re: Newbie here
Welcome to our weird little world RSB- we like to call it....reality.
Rhe fast crashers are starting to win some points here of late for good reason. Things have been getting worse quickly for a lot of folks.
IN my mind, the main ravaging factor to watch out for is inflation. The cost of driving, plane travel, food, durable goods, metal and basic necessities is on an ever quickening pace of price increase. Bit by bit the life we created in a cheap energy world is going away. One day you won't be able to afford to fly on airplanes, then you won't be able to afford to go out for dinner. Then you will have a hard time paying your heating and electric bill.
At some point there will be supply shortages of food, fuel, etc. So is it something to worry about and to prepare for? Hell yeah. Good luck to you and welcome...
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 4:16 pm Post subject: Re: Newbie here
BigTex is correct with the progression.
If you are a thinker, it's like this . . .
Amusement.
Curiosity.
Investigation.
Denial.
Investigation.
Denial.
Investigation.
Realization.
Fear.
Worry.
Understanding.
Preparation. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Joined: Jun 13, 2007 Posts: 3029 Location: Minniesotuh
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 4:27 pm Post subject: Re: Newbie here
Welcome to the real world.
If you want to go home, you had better do it soon. Or, learn to like where you are.
Tell your girlfriend now. If you are interested in her well-being, and she doesn't know, you are not doing her any service by hiding it.
Sooner or later, you are going to need to make some preps-and it is a lot easier if your SO is also onboard.
Read, read, read! _________________ "RRrrruuuunnnn!!!" ~Apocalypto
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 6:41 pm Post subject: Re: Newbie here
Sweden has a low population density and a strong economy which is a cause to be carefree. Arable land is at 5.935% as opposed to the US at 18.01% which is a cause for worry..
I am learning to garden and have enough food stored to make it a couple of months.
Joined: Apr 16, 2008 Posts: 40 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 9:12 pm Post subject: Re: Newbie here
I'm new around here too, its scary how resigned some of the posters here are to PO occuring, I'm not completely convinced yet and I won't be until I see OPEC production decline, that IMO will be confirmation of PO, until then I'm a skeptic. _________________ "I'm here to fight for truth, and justice, and the American way" - Superman
Moped
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 3897 Location: Graceland
Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 12:25 am Post subject: Re: Newbie here
Moped wrote:
I'm new around here too, its scary how resigned some of the posters here are to PO occuring, I'm not completely convinced yet and I won't be until I see OPEC production decline, that IMO will be confirmation of PO, until then I'm a skeptic.
Peak oil will occur. It's just a question of when. The most optimistic analysis still puts it in the relatively near future.
Be a skeptic, by all means. But be an informed skeptic.
You may be saying it's scary how many people here are resigned to terrible events following peak oil, and that's a matter to debate.
But the only real discussion at this point is what the post-peak oil world is going to look like, because the low hanging fruit is gone. _________________ Our window of opportunity is slowly closing...at the same time, it probably requires a spiral of adversity. In other words, things have to get worse before they can get better.
-M. King Hubbert, 1983
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