Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
AMID an astonishing surge in food prices, which has sparked riots and unrest in many countries and is making even the relatively affluent citizens of America and Europe feel the pinch, faith in the ability of global markets to fill nearly 7 billion bellies is dwindling. Given the fear that a new era of chronic shortages may have begun, it is perhaps understandable that the name of Thomas Malthus is in the air. Yet if his views were indeed now correct, that would defy the experience of the past two centuries.
The article is interesting and raises valid points, especially ont nonsensical fears about gm crops and food import bans. Though I wonder if they take into account soil deterioration and dwindling fresh water resources effects on food production in the coming years?
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 12:29 am Post subject: Re: Malthus, the false prophet
Quote:
Although neo-Malthusianism naturally has much to say about food scarcity, the doctrine emerges more generally as the idea of absolute limits on resources and energy, such as the notion of “peak oil”. Following the earlier scares of the 1970s, oil companies defied the pessimists by finding extra fields, not least since higher prices had spurred new exploration. But even if oil wells were to run dry, economies can still adapt by finding and exploiting other energy sources.
Oh really?
Any novice in Peak Oil Theory could rip their argument to pieces...
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 3891 Location: Graceland
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 12:35 am Post subject: Re: Malthus, the false prophet
Malthus was right, he just didn't fully grasp the concept of overshoot and how the effects he predicted wouldn't be felt until the technology induced state of overshoot had reached its limits.
We will see that soon enough, and everyone will recognize how obviously correct his analysis was--i.e., exponential population growth and linear food production growth cannot last long without big problems occurring. _________________ Our window of opportunity is slowly closing...at the same time, it probably requires a spiral of adversity. In other words, things have to get worse before they can get better.
-M. King Hubbert, 1983
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 4:38 am Post subject: Re: Malthus, the false prophet
It took 12-centuries for Mikolaj Kopernik to prove that Ptolemy was correct. That does not mean Ptolemy was wrong just because the majority either refused to believe him or did not understand why he was right.
Quote:
Until Copernicus the teachings of the Greek astronomer Ptolemy were considered to be correct. Ptolemy, who lived in Alexandria in the second century after Christ, taught that the earth was round and calculated its circumference with surprising precision. The Ptolemaic system, however, taught that the earth was the stationary center of the universe and that the sun, moon, planets, and stars revolved around it.
Malthus like many original thinkers will always be acused of not getting the details or the timing right, but his initial supposition that linear growth cannot keep up to exponential growth is essentially true today as it was when he first proposed it. He provided the intellectual framework from which we could start to scientifically address the natural limits to growth on a finite planet.
I do not think he ever suggested that man would never increase agricultural yields or fail to improve farming tecniques, but certainly anecdotal evidence seems to suggest that we are at an inflection point now where those gains are starting to fall behind steeper increases in population growth, while we reach some natural and some artificial barriers to further growth by climate change; falling water tables in some parts of the world; soil degradation, salination and erosion; competing land needs between food, fuel and urban development; resource depletion; and, yes, resistance to GMO and other techno-progress from certain groups of consumers (mainly, the well-fed ones I might add).
Also, failed states like N.Korea, Myanmar, Sudan and others are a net drain on our agriculture productivity instead of being part of the solution of global food security. Malthus could not have foreseen the timing or the details of that confluence of events, but then again no one else did either.
Ironically, although he could not have known it at the time, the experience of China's early growth would have been proof that Malthus' theories were essentially correct. Population growth repeatedly outstripped their agricultural surplus leading to famines, wars, the introduction of newer and more intensive farming methods and eventually the consolidation of many nation states into one China during the Han dynesty. _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
During the Medieval Warm Period (the period prior to 1350) the population of Europe had exploded, reaching levels that were not matched again in some places until the 19th century (parts of France today are less populous than at the beginning of the 14th century). However, the yield ratios of wheat (the number of seeds one could eat per seed planted) had been dropping since 1280 and food prices had been climbing. In good weather the ratio could be as high as 7:1, while during bad years as low as 2:1—that is, for every seed planted, two seeds were harvested, one for next year's seed, and one for food. By comparison, modern farming has ratios of 200:1 or more.
Quote:
In the spring of 1315, unusually heavy rain began in much of Europe. Throughout the spring and summer, it continued to rain and the temperature remained cool. Under these conditions grain could not ripen. Grain was brought indoors in urns and pots. The straw and hay for the animals could not be cured and there was no fodder for the livestock. The price of food began to rise. Food prices in England doubled between spring and midsummer. Salt, the only way to cure and preserve meat, was difficult to obtain because it could not be evaporated in the wet weather; it went from 30 shillings to 40 shillings. In Lorraine, wheat prices increased by 320 percent and peasants could no longer afford bread. Stores of grain for long-term emergencies were limited to the lords and nobles. Because of the general increased population pressures, even lower-than-average harvests meant some people would go hungry; there was little margin for failure. People began to harvest wild edible roots, plants, grasses, nuts, and bark in the forests.
There are a number of documented incidents that show the extent of the famine. Edward II, King of England, stopped at Saint Alba's on August 10, 1315 and no bread could be found for him or his entourage; it was a rare occasion in which the King of England was unable to eat
Quote:
To provide some measure of relief, the future was mortgaged by slaughtering the draft animals; eating the seed grain; abandoning children to fend for themselves (see "Hansel and Gretel"); and, among old people, voluntarily refusing food in hopes of the younger generation surviving. The chroniclers of the time wrote of many incidents of cannibalism.
I could post dozens of similar examples of Malthus being right before he was born, and thats just in humans.
People can usualy survive one really hard year of poor harvests. From what I understand the really big killer famines build up for years with undernourishment draining the 'fat' out of people. I feel strongly that this kind of build up is underway in many countries now. The population keeps growing and the numbers undernourished keep growing. Peoples resistance to disease and a food shock in countries like Swaziland, Mali, Zimbabwe is weakening. We seem to be one bad food shock away from real trouble and we are not gaining enough production of fertilizer quickly enough either. (Leibegs law). This means that people are being priced out of the fertilizer market last year and this year.
Its a bloody hard slog on the treadmill these days to keep the spectre of Malthus of off the back of millions.
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 7:34 am Post subject: Re: Malthus, the false prophet
One cannot really postulate that climate change (volcanic activity in Iceland and an unusually hot summer followed by an unusually cold winter in Europe) caused the French Revolution, but certainly empty government coffers on the back of disasterous overseas wars and a combination of bad harvests combined to make the government desperate enough to impose new and unpopular taxes on wealthy landowners at the same time that workers and peasants had their own economic problems. Namely high prices and not enough to eat.
Quote:
Most of the rationalist thinkers or philosophers had an optimistic view of human nature. They believed that the world was getting better. They also believed that society could be reformed and improved. The spread of rationalist ideas meant that many educated people were impatient for change.
Many educated people in France were also influenced by the example of Britain. In 1726 Voltaire visited England and he wrote admiringly of it. No doubt the philosophers had an idealised view of England but at least it was ruled by parliament (even though only a small minority of men could vote). Imprisonment without trial was illegal and though there was a state church other Protestant churches were tolerated.
Meanwhile in 1756-1763 France became embroiled in the Seven Years War. it proved to a disaster. France lost Canada and its position in India.
The in 1776 the British colonies in North America rebelled. The French were keen to assist the rebels and to get their revenge on the British. France joined the war in 1778 and played a key part in the American victory at Yorktown in 1781. Britain was forced to recognise the independence of the colonies in 1783.
(continued)
Revenge was sweet but it was also expensive. France had to borrow heavily to pay for the war and the loans were very difficult to repay. So in 1786 the finance minister, Calonne, proposed a new tax on land (with no exemptions for the rich) and a stamp tax. Calonne feared the parlements would resist the idea so he persuaded the king to call a Council of notables to discuss the idea. Calonne hoped that if they agreed to it the parlements would not dare to resist.
However things did not go according to plan. The Assembly of Notables was not elected, its members were appointed by the king and they were almost all nobles. Yet when they met in 1787 the notables declared they had no power to accept the plans. Instead they suggested the king call the Estates-General. (This was an elected body that had not met since 1614).
The king dismissed the assembly and in June 1787 he sent the new tax measures to the Paris parlement to register. However, as feared the parlement refused to register. In August it was sent into exile but in September 1787 the king was forced to recall it.
Across France parlements continued to reject the king's schemes and clamoured for the Estates-General to be called. Finally in July 1788 the king gave in. He agreed to call the Estates-General.
However the king was unlucky. The harvests of 1787 and 1788 were poor and bread (the staple food of the poor) was expensive so the people were in an ugly mood.
Let us view the issue in outline. What we neatly categorize as the "French Revolution" was in actual fact a tumultuous series of events that lasted about 12 years, that is, from the failed harvests of 1787 through bread riots, inflation, international war, the rise of the Jacobins, the execution of the king and his wife, the Terror, the Directory, the Consulate, and the emergence of Napoleon.
Next comes the part that everyone cites. As a test of his solar-heating mechanism, he points to the weather during the summer of 1783, when a thick persistent haze covered Europe and part of North America. A magnifying glass wouldn't even burn paper, he said, so dim were the sun's rays. "Of course, their summer effect in heating the earth was exceedingly diminished. Hence the surface was early frozen. Hence the first snows remained on it unmelted, and received continual additions. Hence the air was more chilled, and the winds more severely cold. Hence perhaps the winter of 1783-4, was more severe, than any that had happened for many years."
What was the haze? He didn't know, and gave the question just one sentence: perhaps comet gases (a remarkable foresight of the Tunguska comet impact in 1908), perhaps smoke from the volcano in Iceland. But he concluded that whatever the haze is, people might want to plan for a cold winter after one appears. Franklin was thinking in the most practical terms, or so it seems.
So there is nothing that says that just because we (collectively) cannot really afford crop failures in the current economic downturn against a backdrop of high food and energy prices that in fact those exact conditions will not fail to materialize. In fact they go hand in hand. Natural disasters and our ability to deal with them are hampered by misinvestment and a misallocation of resources that suddenly are not there when we need them the most to deal with unexpected adversity even though from experience we should expect them to come regularly if unpredictably.
It is a truism and not an observation that the poorest nations and the worst governed have the fewest resources with which to deal with unexpected natural disasters. If donor nations have their own economic and political problems then so much the worse for the poor.
Quote:
Obesity contributes to global warming, too.
Obese and overweight people require more fuel to transport them and the food they eat, and the problem will worsen as the population literally swells in size, a team at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine says.
This adds to food shortages and higher energy prices, the school's researchers Phil Edwards and Ian Roberts wrote in the journal Lancet on Friday.
And never underestimate the ability of short-sighted, populist policies to make a bad situation worse, further weakening our (collective) ability to deal with genuine economic and food security problems.
Quote:
Faced with some of America's highest energy costs, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin proposed a plan on Thursday to provide state residents with special debit cards good for $100 of fuel every month.
The Republican governor said the money will come from the state's treasury, fattened by record oil prices.
"It's really atrocious the situation that Alaskans are in today, where we, as the owners of the energy resources, are paying outrageous prices for the use of those resources," Palin said at a news conference.
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2021 Location: Arkansas
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 7:48 am Post subject: Re: Malthus, the false prophet
I thought there was a lot of death, starvation and disease in the world, or is that all propaganda coming out of Africa for example? Is that a big business conspiracy b.s. to justify sending money and aid over there, or does that prove that Malthus theory was right? The problem with saying Malthus was wrong is we always tend to view the world as a big homogenous system when it is not, not even with the new "globalization."
Last edited by seahorse on Fri May 16, 2008 7:50 am; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 5808 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 7:48 am Post subject: Re: Malthus, the false prophet
Malthus was right except as to timing. He could not have foreseen the one-time fossil-fuel bonanza and the technological miracles that have temporarily and artificially boosted carrying capacity. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 8:13 am Post subject: Re: Malthus, the false prophet
Heineken wrote:
Malthus was right except as to timing. He could not have foreseen the one-time fossil-fuel bonanza and the technological miracles that have temporarily and artificially boosted carrying capacity.
Yeah we all know that........it's just the rest of society that doesn't, at least not yet.
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 8:21 am Post subject: Re: Malthus, the false prophet
Malthus was more right than he could know.
The FF boom makes his correctness pointed.
That is, without FF, the chart of human population has a slow rise and then a leveling out.
With FF, the chart of human population has a parabolic spike and a precipitous dive.
In essence, an exclamation point for his theory. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 3891 Location: Graceland
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 9:49 am Post subject: Re: Malthus, the false prophet
Cashmere wrote:
Malthus was more right than he could know.
The FF boom makes his correctness pointed.
That is, without FF, the chart of human population has a slow rise and then a leveling out.
With FF, the chart of human population has a parabolic spike and a precipitous dive.
In essence, an exclamation point for his theory.
Fossil fuel was the sugar cube dropped in the petri dish. _________________ Our window of opportunity is slowly closing...at the same time, it probably requires a spiral of adversity. In other words, things have to get worse before they can get better.
-M. King Hubbert, 1983
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 10:45 am Post subject: Re: Malthus, the false prophet
Mr.Bill:
Quote:
resource depletion; and, yes, resistance to GMO and other techno-progress from certain groups of consumers (mainly, the well-fed ones I might add).
Have you seen the movie I posted a link to about Monsanto? It's disappeared from Google and other sources I posted at the time, but you can still find it here:
Wide Eyed Cinema
In it, you'll find ample proof that it is certainly NOT just the well fed and able to choose, who are resistent to GM food.
Apart from that, you seem to have hit the nail on the head!
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 1:52 pm Post subject: Re: Malthus, the false prophet
Twilight wrote:
Malthus only has to be right once, cornucopians have to be right every time.
LOL! Yup.
Malthus was trying to understand the dynamics of a system. He correctly saw that exponential growth would often lead to overshoot and collapse. The system is more complicated than he expected. That does not make him a false prophet, he simply did not account for all the possibilities. He did however corretly infer that there exist in these systems limits to growth. We are experiencing a grwoth limiting factor right now. Oil supply cannot grow fast enough long enough to fuel the type of growth we have seen in the past. So the grwoth has to come from somewhere esle or not at all. That said oil has left us in overshoot regarding living standards in the west and overall population. A collapse is coming and those in the know see beyond the rhetoric to the substance. _________________ I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
Joined: Mar 09, 2007 Posts: 213 Location: No. Calif.
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 5:30 pm Post subject: Re: Malthus, the false prophet
The fact that the financial community's MSM repeats incessantly how wrong Malthus was, should be a clue to how right he was and is.
I like the 'two centuries' of Malthus being 'wrong' (or is it 'right'): Of course, coal was probably just beginning to be exploited in 1800 and then dominated that century. Then oil was to dominate the next century.
So we have two 'super-cycles' of resource utilization before the crash, oil comprising the smaller in the time scale (but much more valuable) and coal comprising the longer time scale.
Reading wikipedia on Malthus, he speaks of the lower working classes being emploited in this cycle. With our higher per capita energy use, this now seems to apply to the middle-class. That picture of tent-city California seems to come to mind.
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