I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Contrary to earlier reports, Saudi Arabia has increased its oil production by 300,000 barrels per day in response to orders from customers, mostly from the United States, and will pump 9.45 million bpd in June, Oil Minister Ali al-Nuaimi said on Friday.
"Every month, we receive (orders) from our customers worldwide. On May 10 we increased our response to our customers by 300,000 barrels because they asked for it," Nuaimi told reporters during a visit by U.S. President George W. Bush to Saudi Arabia.
He said additional demand came from about 50 customers, mostly U.S. clients, "and we responded to it on May 10."
"Our production for June will be 9.45 million barrels per day," he added.
Contrary to earlier reports, Saudi Arabia has increased its oil production by 300,000 barrels per day in response to orders from customers, mostly from the United States, and will pump 9.45 million bpd in June, Oil Minister Ali al-Nuaimi said on Friday.
"Every month, we receive (orders) from our customers worldwide. On May 10 we increased our response to our customers by 300,000 barrels because they asked for it," Nuaimi told reporters during a visit by U.S. President George W. Bush to Saudi Arabia.
He said additional demand came from about 50 customers, mostly U.S. clients, "and we responded to it on May 10."
"Our production for June will be 9.45 million barrels per day," he added.
I noticed the difference in the news stories also.
Of course in the month of may 2008: 10,943,000 (would you whine if I rounded it up to 11 million?) humans added to planet earth. Saudi Production might go down in a month or two... those mouths are around for ~66 years (if we assumed we could feed them that long of course). Keep on whistling your little song OF2 if it makes you feel good... doesn't make your "good news" significant to the problem we are facing.
------
edit:
In case you didn't infer it, we will add almost 11 million next month, and the month after that, and the month after that and the month after that... until we don't anymore. _________________ “It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 10:10 pm Post subject: Re: Saudi Hikes Output by 300,000 bpd in May
Title is not quite correct.
Should read, "KSA promises to raise output 300k barrels".
I'll wait till I see it.
In any case, 300k barrels a day is . . .
A drop in the bucket at this point. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 12:36 am Post subject: Re: Saudi Hikes Output by 300,000 bpd in May
Caine wrote:
You mean to tell me there are still board members here who take what the Saudis say at face value?! Amazing.
Allow me to comment as a person who has been following peak oil on this board for almost 4 years.
When it comes to Saudi production, the word of the Saudis has shown itself to be much more trustworthy than Matt Simmons and the numerous clowns on this board who, until quite recently, were damn sure that Saudi Arabia had already peaked and was in terminal decline.
Contrary to the last 5 years of Matt Simmons bawling about Ghawar watering out and Saudi production plummeting, Saudi production has been steady/rising for quite some time. As shown by the EIA stats:
Feb. 07: 8,600
March 07: 8,600
April 07: 8,600
May 07: 8,600
June 07: 8,600
July 07: 8,600
Aug. 07: 8,600
Sept. 07: 8,800
Oct. 07: 8,800
Nov. 07: 9,000
Dec 07: 9,100
Jan. 08: 9,200
Feb. 08: 9,200
Coming soon...
June 08: 9,450
A new day dawns in the desert.
Fact is, Matt Simmons and most of the doomers on this board have been embarassingly proven wrong by the above stats, but aren't honest enough to admit it. _________________ Think outside the petri dish.
Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 1:33 am Post subject: Re: Saudi Hikes Output by 300,000 bpd in May
Why cherry-pick only 14 months of data? Or is it inconvenient to look at a broader picture that shows that KSA, rather than ramping up production ever higher, are actually trying to claw their way back to procuction levels back in 04 to 06?
Joined: Feb 27, 2008 Posts: 57 Location: Washington State (US)
Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 3:26 am Post subject: Re: Saudi Hikes Output by 300,000 bpd in May
Thylacine -- nice graph. Really puts things in perspective.
I'm sure everyone has seen this as well, but US production numbers are interesting, particularly the 60s and 70s. As far as Saudia Arabia goes, we'll all find out soon enough if peak is now, or ten years from now. To think it's 20 or 30 years out feels like wishful thinking.
Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 3:30 am Post subject: Re: Saudi Hikes Output by 300,000 bpd in May
Quote:
When it comes to Saudi production, the word of the Saudis has shown itself to be much more trustworthy than Matt Simmons and the numerous clowns on this board who, until quite recently, were damn sure that Saudi Arabia had already peaked and was in terminal decline.
Say what you want but I have invested my money and that of others based on Simmons advice since 04 and people have thanked me for it.
I put my money where my mouth is and in energy and these last few years has yielded outstanding returns. I even bought crude right before the "commodities" crash in March and have benefitted from crude hitting altime highs,although I can't say my investments in agriculture have been as good.
Simmons is the real deal and listening to what he has said about crude oil has helped me make money for myself and others.
Although I can't say that peak oil is definitely coming,although I think its quite likely, all I can say is that investing in energy has yielded great results for myself and others these past few years.
Contrary to earlier reports, Saudi Arabia has increased its oil production by 300,000 barrels per day in response to orders from customers, mostly from the United States, and will pump 9.45 million bpd in June, Oil Minister Ali al-Nuaimi said on Friday.
"Every month, we receive (orders) from our customers worldwide. On May 10 we increased our response to our customers by 300,000 barrels because they asked for it," Nuaimi told reporters during a visit by U.S. President George W. Bush to Saudi Arabia.
He said additional demand came from about 50 customers, mostly U.S. clients, "and we responded to it on May 10."
"Our production for June will be 9.45 million barrels per day," he added.
Funny Avatar, most people you know are going to die faster than they think they will, that's including you. an absolute majority of your ancestors had died of hunger/malnutrition and an absolute majority of your progeny will die of hunger/malnutrition ( if you are to have any). There are might be an extraordinary crop of guava in Mozambique next year and may be even an ability to get 0.3mb a day from Saudis but this will not change jackshit.
Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 4:57 am Post subject: Re: Saudi Hikes Output by 300,000 bpd in May
thylacine wrote:
Why cherry-pick only 14 months of data? Or is it inconvenient to look at a broader picture that shows that KSA, rather than ramping up production ever higher, are actually trying to claw their way back to procuction levels back in 04 to 06?
Actually, it's highly ironic that you reference that post at the Oil Drum. I guess you figured no one would actually read it. I would encourage everybody to read it because it's a classic example of what I'm talking about. On March 3, 2007 Stuart Staniford wrote, in the article you cite:
Quote:
Overall, I feel this data is clear enough that I'm willing to go out on a limb and conclude the following:
* Saudi Arabian oil production is now in decline.
* The decline rate during the first year is very high (8%), akin to decline rates in other places developed with modern horizontal drilling techniques such as the North Sea.
* Declines are rather unlikely to be arrested, and may well accelerate.
* Matt Simmons appears to be right in Twilight in the Desert, but the warning did not come until after declines had actually begun.
[Update: Steve Andrews of ASPO-USA correctly points out to me in email that Matt Simmons began warnings about Saudi Arabia as early as December 2003, significantly before the publication of the hardback version of the book in mid 2005. I relied on an over-hasty check of Amazon which has the paperback publication date - mea culpa.]
I suggest that this is likely to place severe political strains on Saudi Arabia within a year or two at most.
All of which turned out to be straight from the rump bullshit. Since Stuart declared Saudi to be in terminal decline, their oil production hasn't decreased. It has increased and is once again approaching its all-time maximum, as I showed with the EIA stats above.
In fact, if you want to have a nice laugh, read the comments to that article. Lots of the usual P.O. sheep buying into "the Saudis are going down" hysteria, as I said.
Meanwhile, the Saudis stated that things were fine, and it turned out they were right. The objective reality is that the word of the Saudis has been more trustworthy than Simmons, Staniford and their other critics. That might not fit with the dogma you're supposed to recite as a peak oil clone, but it's the reality.
Furthermore, there is no indication that the Saudis are "clawing" to get their production up. If you read the right hand axis of the graph you posted, you'll see that the rig count is about 55 rigs for the entire country. That compares to a rig count of 1862 (according to Baker Hughes) for the U.S. That's clawing. The Saudis have raised their production while hardly breaking a sweat. _________________ Think outside the petri dish.
Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 5:12 am Post subject: Re: Saudi Hikes Output by 300,000 bpd in May
mefistofeles wrote:
Quote:
When it comes to Saudi production, the word of the Saudis has shown itself to be much more trustworthy than Matt Simmons and the numerous clowns on this board who, until quite recently, were damn sure that Saudi Arabia had already peaked and was in terminal decline.
Say what you want but I have invested my money and that of others based on Simmons advice since 04 and people have thanked me for it.
That may be true, but who cares? It's completely irrelevant to the point I''m making. The fact of the matter is that Matt Simmons was completely wrong about the ability of the Saudis to sustain and increase their production. In fact, he should do the manly thing: come clean and publicly apologize to the Saudis. _________________ Think outside the petri dish.
Meanwhile, who says the Saudis will increase production? You have no way of knowing if they can - no one does - that was the point of Matt's book, which merely gathered mountains of evidence that they have had tremendous difficulties with production in the past. There's nothing ultimately magical about Ghawar or Berri, contrary to what so many wish to believe, owing to the mystique Saudi Armaco have built up around them. Their fields could enter into genuine decline at any point.
And why should we care about added supply anyway, Mr. Hang the Speculators? Thought you'd decided this was merely a bubble.
One of the most startling things I've ever heard about peak oil was in this 2007 interview with Henry Groppe. Groppe's been in the business forever, travels over to KSA all the time, spoke of having great respect for the people, their abilities, their future prospects, and that he sees them maintaining a steady 8-9.5 mbpd for the foreseeable future. Great, I thought, another Pollyanna. Then David Strahan asked him when he thought the world would peak. "2008." _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
The Dude Is Not In: Leave A Message After The Beep.
Joined: Mar 07, 2007 Posts: 386 Location: Holland, Belgica Foederata (Republic of the Seven United Netherlands)
Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 6:36 am Post subject: Re: Saudi Hikes Output by 300,000 bpd in May
Iran has had problems selling their lower quality crude. KSA has always had a reserve capacity of lower quality crude. Does anyone know whether the rise of KSA extraction is the result of dumping low quality crude on the market?
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