I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Yep folks. I think that thunder crack we heard in the distance is starting to roll across the land....
Quote:
I don’t know why everybody is pussyfooting around about this. I think it’s safe to say that, with oil blasting up to $200-a-barrel sometime soon, another inexorable millstone suddenly sails into view. I want to be the first to say it. Remember where you read it first.
The hell with $200-a-barrel oil. That’s so 2008. By 2010, we’re going to see crude oil reach $1000-per-barrel.
I say this with absolutely as much information at hand as the pundits who are now making headlines for themselves by their soggy $200 predictions. Nobody knows what’s going to happen. So I’m going to not know what’s happening at an even more dramatic level.
$1000-a-barrel oil! What a concept! Let’s look at a few of the implications, not all of which are negative, if you’re a hippy:
* Air travel, except to five or six hub cities, will end.
* The Interstate Highway System will moulder, since most people will only be able to drive locally.
* There will be no cars that are not hybrids on the few remaining roads, but even those will be only for the very rich who can afford $27-per-gallon gasoline.
* Vehicles that run on alternative forms of energy will proliferate. Most will achieve speeds up to 8 mph.
* There will be no food available that is not grown locally. The nation will quickly become overrun with chickens.
* All businesses that have any element involving transportation of people or goods will fold.
* Unable to go anywhere, people will communicate primarily by cell phone and e-mail, eventually crashing the Internet and plunging society back into the mid-20th Century.
* The countryside will empty out; 95% of the population will need to live in urban areas since transport will be too expensive for most people.
* The average one-bedroom co-op in Los Angeles, Chicago and New York will go for $50 million.
* The Federal Government will still be cutting generous arms deals with Saudi Arabia.
Of course, there are many things that could slow this process down. But none of them seem to be in place. Why should we believe that something will be done before it’s too late?
Isn’t it sort of too late already?
This is not the fringe... this is Fortune Freaking Magazine!! _________________ Dismantle globally, renew locally!
Posted: Wed May 21, 2008 2:13 pm Post subject: Re: Bing Blog: $1000/barrel is coming
misterno wrote:
Allright guys calm down. This is crazy stuff. If oil hits $1000 then ethanol will be 800 and corn will be 300/bushel.
are we all gonna starve to death?
With all due respect, are you paying attention?? The answer is yes, many people are already starving to death elsewhere, as well as in this country. Your cognitive dissonance on this doesn't make it any less true, and anyone who IS paying attention is getting their ducks in a row as much as possible.
The problem with most civilized people is they think they are owed something like sustenance and shelter. I've got news for you. You don't. You are not entitled to anything. Once the energy is gone, so are the good times. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news. _________________ Dismantle globally, renew locally!
Joined: Sep 03, 2007 Posts: 638 Location: Sunny Virginia, USA
Posted: Wed May 21, 2008 2:52 pm Post subject: Re: Bing Blog: $1000/barrel is coming
I'm smelling a little bit irony and sarcasm in the story. I think he's trying to say "I can yell the sky is falling louder than you can!"
In reality, oil will be up to $1,000 a barrel decades from now (in today's dollar equivelent) when it's no longer a commonly used form of fuel. When the pipelines are no longer maintained and refineries are no longer dotting the planet, then the economies of scale will plummet and if you want a barrel of oil, you'll have to pay for it. _________________ When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
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