The speed of things - are we going to have a collapse?

arretium

Is anyone else out there stunned at the turn of events recently? The speed by which change is occurring in the global market is stunning. What an amazing turn of events! It's like we are watching a professional sporting event on television. Almost every day brings about something new. Just recently we had these news events:

* American airlines now charges for first checked bag due to fuel price increases.
* Price for crude on futures market now exceeds the price for crude in current market.
* Saudi Arabia announces they won't hit 15 mbd
* Pemex announces that Mexico could become a net oil importer in four years due to the catastrophic collapse of Cantrell.
* Mainstream forecasters are now predicting $ 200 oil.
* Unknown to many, U.S. M3 Money supply increased by 14% last year.
* Gasoline has hit $ 4/gallon. I filled up yesterday at 3.89 for regular.
* Delta/NW merge - America airlines also announced it is retiring 40-50 MD-80s and cutting routes.

Meanwhile in my own backyard:

The Port of Seattle continues to build their third runway at SeaTac...

And yet:
The Federal Government announced that inflation is up less than 4% from last year. In fact, the Fed reported "The transportation index declined 0.7 percent in April, reflecting a 2.0 percent decrease in the index for gasoline." This is for 2008. Yes that's right. The Fed says that gasoline prices dropped in April! Where do they buy their gas? Not in my city... Here's the link.

I'd like to know where the Feds buy their goods because I need to move to that city.

Is it possible we could see a collapse this year? I wonder how that would impact the U.S. presidential election? It seems to me it might be better for the Dems to just let the GOP have the presidency this year, because after the next four years the party in power probably won't be around much longer.

joeltrout · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Sep 19, 2007 Posts: 1317

I am still not convinced we will see a collapse in the US anytime soon however I do believe we will be stuck in a recession for several years to come even if oil prices go back down to $80/bbl.

joeltrout

roccman

More like a bone crushing thud...before the (s) elections.

If you listen to the cornucopians and pollyannas...you will suffer deeply for your lack of sense of urgency.

You should have been preparing for this moment in time years ago...
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Twilight · Expert Joined: Mar 02, 2007 Posts: 2971 Location: UK

A good collapse cannot be rushed. Like a fine wine, it needs time to mature.
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"The American people are watching the numbers climb higher and higher at the pump and they're waiting to see what the Congress will do." - George W Bush

RdSnt

The geopolitical scene is getting more tense and chaotic every day.
If BushCo. attacks Iran I see a better than even chance of a global nuclear exchange.
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roccman

vision-master

How many times has the World come to an end. I mean, 1,000 years ago ppl thought it was all over.

Doom sells! Razz

roccman

Cashmere · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Mar 27, 2008 Posts: 1938

Joel, sometimes I wonder about you. You seem to only tenuously believe in PO and you seem to not think that we are in for a lot of trouble.

If it goes down to 80?

Seriously man, only a non-PO person could say that.

It would be like gold going back down to 600 - no way.
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Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.

Mettezz · Tar Sands Joined: May 05, 2008 Posts: 48

lol i whas thinking just the same, i never expected that the price of oil almost would double itself in less then 2 years time.

i had hoped that we had more time too prepare ouselves atleast untill 2013 or sumthing.

But I fear now it's even wishfull thinking we can make it too 2010 in a normal way i mean.

This will probably be the sequel of the great depression and this one will be one with no end in sight.

Unless we find a new einstein ofcourse who can make nuclear fushion work in 10 years time.

I blame all those incompetent fools that ran office in the world for the last 80 years. I mean how selfish can you get they destroyed the world in less then 100 years time. They should get a medall for that Btw.

And who has to pay? all the childeren that are born today. what are we gonna say to them when they ask us : "how come the world has become such an bad and evil place"?

cause mommy and daddy wanted to drive a car?

This is so insane i'm starting to feel that i wish i whas born in 1930 cause what we are heading for is much worse then the great depression and world war II together.

People in the world can't even pay anymore for their 3 basic needs
Shelter, water and food.

And what do we hear on the news? nothing but positive talk that things will get better and you don't have to worry a thing, you don't even need to think about it they will do it for you.

And people like peter schiff, matt simmons, collin campbell, mike ruppert, richard heinberg, and all those other who are trying to wake up the people get censured, laughed at, or even ignored.

and the craziest thing of all. I am starting to get the feeling that those issues about biofuel are one of the first steps to depopulate the world.

Jack · Dark Lord Joined: Aug 11, 2004 Posts: 5065

cube · Fusion Joined: Mar 12, 2005 Posts: 3564

Mettezz · Tar Sands Joined: May 05, 2008 Posts: 48

Pops

Yea, I'm sorta surprised.

Not necessarily taken off guard but surprised at both rate of rise in energy and the elasticity of demand to this point.

Also at the concurrent Green Boom, Organic/local food thing.

If I were the Oracle of Omaha (instead of the Ozarks) I'd give you an opinion to bank on regarding the collapse of the macro economy. But as it sets today, the Macro don't matter all that much to me - only My Micro and that is good enough.

Check yourself is all I can suggest.
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