I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Sun May 25, 2008 5:25 pm Post subject: New person from VA
I recently found this site, it has so much info.
A little about me is, I started working in the offshore oil industry in the early 80's after high school and again after college in the late 80's. I have always had a giant interest in the oil industry.
The past several years I was wondering about when oil would run out, I never heard the term peak oil until the last several weeks.
Basically,I figure oil is harder to extract and supplies will one day end with so many users. I am constantly discussing/arguing with people at work and in daily life explaining that oil is harder to get and that is one of the causes of the high prices. I get in return "NO, IT IS ALL THE ENVIROMENTALISTS FAULT". My feelings are that one day enviromentalists will be classified with other ISTS, Communists and Terrorists when the crap hits the fan.
I do have one giant question, and do not bite my head off. I read that oil supplies are endless and others say that peak oil is here,
like others I get contradictions all the time on this issue. In an endless endeavour to learn about this issue, I joined this site to learn all I can. THANK YOU.
Joined: Sep 04, 2005 Posts: 441 Location: central MA, USA
Posted: Sun May 25, 2008 6:12 pm Post subject: Re: New person from VA
doodlebug2 wrote:
I read that oil supplies are endless and others say that peak oil is here, like others I get contradictions all the time on this issue.
Supplies are clearly not endless. Some believe in "abiotic" oil formation (I don't), but even they can't point to any meaningful amount of oil formation over human- (as opposed to geologic-) scale times.
I suspect what you've sometimes heard from those who believe it's "endless" is that Peak Oil says that oil has almost run out? It hasn't. Other than perhaps a lunatic on the fringe or two, no peakist says that. What we think we're reaching is not the end of oil, it's the global maximum in oil production. Once production can never rise higher, yet demand wants more, we are in an era of rising prices and scarcity for those who can't afford it.
And it's often not clear what peak people are referring to. Is it light sweet crude? Probably reached that a few years back. Is it conventional crude? Probably there now. Is it "liquids" including natural gas condensates and tar sands "oil"? Maybe we're not there yet.
People who think that, were it not for environmentalists who prevent drilling everywhere, we'd have all the oil we ever need, are kidding themselves. We'll continue to find more oil, but chances are good we've already found most of the best large fields. Read Simmons' "Twilight in the Desert" for some good information on this (assuming you don't already know it all, grin).
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6976 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Sun May 25, 2008 6:41 pm Post subject: Re: New person from VA
You must know more than me, but I gotta say I think most would guess oil will run out at some point.
When the rising cost of energy impacts each of us is the open question and much more important than the little when of peak oil. _________________ Make a plan and work it:
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