Joined: Sep 24, 2007 Posts: 2584 Location: third from the sun
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 5:27 am Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
Geomancer wrote:
I believe that oil reserves are increasing and the price increases are created by speculators on Wall Street who are creating an oil price bubble and collapse similar to the sub prime bubble.
Joined: Apr 05, 2007 Posts: 153 Location: Great Britain
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 7:32 am Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
KillTheHumans wrote:
[I stated facts obtained from the EIA website and did a calculation on them. Refute the EIA all you'd like, its their information.
And I rather think dear boy that's the point a number of people are trying to make in their own individual ways! i.e. the EIA (less so than CERA I would say) has approached the future expected amount of oil froman economist's point of view i.e. supply will increase/new oil fields will be found as demand rises.
Many peak oilers disagree believing there is a ceiling and then drop in production i.e. there is a physical limit to waht can be produced. the boundaries are now being met.
I suspect you are probably feeling slightly embarassed now in that effectively you have taken (without questioning it!) the EIA numbers and made a statement on the back of it and then use the fact you were simply using the EIA numbers as some form of shield against people disagreeing with you! . which lets face it is so flawed as an example just ask yourself whether the "new found reserves" really all exist - did they really not increase for OPEC quota reasons for example.
so please if you are going to use data you need to be happy with its accuracy and be able to defend it rather than just a "well EIA says so so it must be true" best regards Smudger
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 8:28 am Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
Twilight wrote:
KillTheHumans wrote:
I stated facts obtained from the EIA website and did a calculation on them. Refute the EIA all you'd like, its their information.
Is it their information?
Sure was. Two spreadsheets, one for worldwide consumption and the other for reserves spanning 1980 to 2006.
Twilight wrote:
Or are they reproducing spurious claims while not in a position to express an opinion regarding their accuracy, hiding behind good faith to avoid meddling in politically sensitive matters extending far outside their remit?
How the heck would any of us know that? Their information is their information, if you suspect everyones information, then its pretty easy to make up your own and declare whatever scenario you'd like I suppose.
Twilight wrote:
It is reasonable to assume oil production figures obtained there and elsewhere are quite accurate.
As accurate as anything else, and much better than what anyone around here might manufacture.
Twilight wrote:
But the accuracy of reserve additions depend heavily on definition - do we count Canadian tar and Venezuelan heavy crude additions or not, do we accept at face value OPEC's massive overnight increases followed by perfect replenishment or not, and so on. Accounting methods replace reserves only on paper. The figure you quoted is unrealistically large and a detailed breakdown will probably reveal changes in accounting treatment without anything in particular happening on the ground.
Write the EIA a letter demanding numbers which you like better!
Twilight wrote:
This debate has been had many times before - the discovery trend in this time period has been awful and production has far outstripped everything but reclassification of asphalt.
Actually, the discovery of new reserves during the 1990's was HUGE compared to consumption but that definition includes P2's I believe. I'll bet the EIA sticks with P1's and doesn't get into the speculation on other types of reserve growth. _________________ Freddy RULZ!
www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits) (or bankers) (or web "experts")
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 8:36 am Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
DantesPeak wrote:
I'd like you to name one leading person in PO movement that said there would be cannabalization starting in 2005.
I wasn't thinking about revered leading members of the PO movement ( like Ruppert and Savinar and Ehrlich ) I was thinking of the experts around here, I mean, we have a proven track record of predicting the future MUCH better than the figureheads....I learned this recently from just such an expert.
DantesPeak wrote:
You have a lot of nerve complaining about others when you can't even get the basic facts straight.
Would you like me to round up a link to someone here claiming that as we starve to death during the post peak wars and famine we wouldn't consider such a thing? I'm sure I can find one with a little searching of the forums. _________________ Freddy RULZ!
www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits) (or bankers) (or web "experts")
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 8:40 am Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
TheDude wrote:
KillTheHumans wrote:
So you are bashing a guy for noticing the following.....global consumption between 1980 and 2006 was approx 687 BBO.
Additions to reserves according to the EIA during that exact same time frame are......643 BBO!!!!
Is it Kool Aid that made your avatar turn blue green?
Not even going to detail why your reserves are almost entirely spurious paper fabrications.
People keep saying that, and we keep putting them in our gas tanks, at both the domestic level as well as the global level.
So as long as "spurious" continues to be turned into actual product, you'll forgive me for giving reality more credit than whatever bluepill/redpill world you happen to live in. _________________ Freddy RULZ!
www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits) (or bankers) (or web "experts")
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 8:48 am Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
Smudger wrote:
KillTheHumans wrote:
[I stated facts obtained from the EIA website and did a calculation on them. Refute the EIA all you'd like, its their information.
And I rather think dear boy that's the point a number of people are trying to make in their own individual ways! i.e. the EIA (less so than CERA I would say) has approached the future expected amount of oil froman economist's point of view i.e. supply will increase/new oil fields will be found as demand rises.
I've talked to the EIA on more than one occasion and haven't met an economist there yet. And they don't even deal with new oil fields beyond their current reporting year, they just report the same sort of information that Oilfiender2 does, call them accountants to BigOil if you will.
Certainly doesn't put an automatic bias in their numbers, they struck me as completely reasonable adder-uppers. When you talked to them was your opinion different?
Smudger wrote:
I suspect you are probably feeling slightly embarassed now in that effectively you have taken (without questioning it!) the EIA numbers and made a statement on the back of it and then use the fact you were simply using the EIA numbers as some form of shield against people disagreeing with you! .
Embarassed? Who...ME? For using the best data available to show that yes indeedy, over 26 years we've found less oil than we've consumed? Can't say that using the best data available should ever be an embarassing event. You aren't suggesting that most peakers use poor data just so they can make a point on a manufactured foundation are you?
Smudger wrote:
which lets face it is so flawed as an example just ask yourself whether the "new found reserves" really all exist - did they really not increase for OPEC quota reasons for example.
According to the EIA, we are using them in our gas tanks right now. Sounds like they most certainly exist, and we are using them RIGHT NOW. You don't think they are going to STOP tomorrow do you? _________________ Freddy RULZ!
www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits) (or bankers) (or web "experts")
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 2965 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 10:57 am Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
KillTheHumans wrote:
How the heck would any of us know that? Their information is their information, if you suspect everyones information, then its pretty easy to make up your own and declare whatever scenario you'd like I suppose.
Thanks for the insight, David Hume.
Colin Campbell wrote:
16 Reserve Reporting
· The industry has systematically under-reported the size of discovery for a host of good commercial and regulatory reasons. It understandably prefers to revise the reserves upwards over time than book them all up front. It is not its job to forecast the future.
· For most purposes, it does not matter, but we need to know the real record of the past if we are to use the trend to forecast the future.
· Governments variously under-report or over-report, or simply fail to update their estimates. As many as 70 countries reported unchanged numbers in 1999, which is utterly implausible.
· We need the "best estimate". It is often called Proved & Probable, such that any revisions are statistically neutral
17 Dating Revisions
· An oilfield contains what it contains because it was filled in the geological past, but knowledge of how much it contains evolves over time.
· If we want a genuine discovery trend, we need to backdate revisions to the discovery of the field.
· Failure to backdate gives the illusion that more is being found than is the case. It is a cause of great misunderstanding
18 BP Reserves
This demonstrates how BP reports reserves, failing to backdate the revisions. It has misled many analysts. The large increases in the late 1980s were simply due to the OPEC quota wars. Nothing was actually added, as I will explain.
Quote:
19 Spurious Revisions
I should explain this large increase in greater detail.
· Kuwait added 50% in 1985 to increase its OPEC quota, which was based partly on reserves. No corresponding new discoveries had been made. Nothing particular changed in the reservoir.
· Venezuela doubled its reserves in 1987 by the inclusion of large deposits of heavy oil that had been known for years.
· It forced the other OPEC countries to retaliate with huge increases
· Note too how the numbers have changed little since despite production..
But it is not quite as simple as that, because the early numbers were too low, having been inherited from the companies before they were expropriated. Some of the increase was justified but it has to be backdated to the discovery of the fields concerned that had been found up to 50 years before.
20 Popular Image
The failure to backdate gives this misleading popular image of growing reserves. It is widely used by flat-earth economists in support of classical economic theories of supply and demand
I hasten to add that by no means all economists believe in a flat-earth. There are enlightened economists who now relate economics with resources, and they are coming to the fore.
Quote:
21 Reality & Illusion
This shows the effect of proper backdating. The discovery trend shown in yellow is falling not rising.
P E A K O I L | Lecture _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
I'm just gonna find a cash machine.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 2965 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 11:01 am Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
Incidentally here's what happens to reserves in the US, where genuine audits are conducted - this from who else but the EIA:
Quote:
The United States had 20,972 million barrels of crude oil proved reserves as of December 31, 2006. This is 4 percent (-785 million barrels) less than in 2005. The
principal factors contributing to the declinewere lower
than average net revisions and adjustments and fewer
total discoveries.
The Gulf of Mexico Federal Offshore and Alaska, two
of the largest U.S. oil-producing areas, reported 10 and
7 percent declines in crude oil proved reserves.Downward revisions exceeded revision increases in these two areas in 2006.
Reserves additions of crude oil in the U.S. did not keep
pace with production. Operators replaced only 52 percent of 2006 crude oil production with reserves additions (Figure 15).
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 3:34 pm Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
KillTheHumans wrote:
Geomancer wrote:
I believe that the major problem faced by Big Oil is not finding replacement oil but keeping the lid on world oil finds in order to maintain present exorbitant prices.
Just watch for the recent speculative oil price bubble created by Wall Street manipulators to pop in the near future.
You sir, are going to have some FUN around here!
I had the impression that you needed some provocation, so I delivered it. javascript:emoticon('') I do not know enough about the arguments on each side of the oil reserve controversy to be able to use my knowledge on the subject, so I borrowed some ideas from more eminent thinkers.
Now that I have your attention please be informed that I am well versed in coal gasification and have been involved in the pyrolysis process using plasma energy to convert any organic material to hydrogen and carbon black. More than a decade ago the concept was not profitable, because there was no use for large quantities of hydrogen and even less for carbon black. We have unlimited supply of organic materials suitable as feed material including, but not restricted to garbage, scrap tires, poisonous warfare agents, etc.
Building pyrolysis reactors is cheaper and faster than going for oil in its more difficult formations.
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 3:56 pm Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
If that data was showing "reserve growth" without backdating additions to original discovery dates, that would explain why KTH's claim of what it shows sounds so outlandish. Every year the world consumes more oil than it discovers, and this has been the case for coming up to 30 years. Reserve growth from reappraisals of economic recovery, inclusion of new categories of difficult oil and spurious reporting do not change the discovery trend. What it does is say we used 30bn barrels of mostly great stuff and replaced it with tar and unverifiable paper barrels that - yes - appear to be as made up as anything on the internet as Kuwait's reversal of past revisions demonstrates.
Note that this is only discussion of KTH's interpretation, not the data itself as it has not been presented here. It is impossible to say which of those sources of error are the case here. But these are the old tricks that appear again and again when reserve replacement appears too good to be true.
By the way, the EIA, like the IEA, BP Statistical Review, the journals and others, do not rely exclusively on data they gather themselves. Most of the reported reserves are on the books of NOCs which report whatever they like, and their numbers (in some cases unchanging for 20 years) are reproduced without comment. There are no independent audits of the claims of some of the most important producers in the world. We only have their word, so "buyer beware" when reading even the most reputable statistical publications. _________________ "The American people are watching the numbers climb higher and higher at the pump and they're waiting to see what the Congress will do." - George W Bush
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 8:38 pm Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
TheDude wrote:
21 Reality & Illusion
This shows the effect of proper backdating. The discovery trend shown in yellow is falling not rising.
Do you even have a clue as to why this doesn't matter in the least when calculating reserve growth? Maybe you missed that class during the "learn to be an expert in 3 easy lessons" day? _________________ Freddy RULZ!
www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits) (or bankers) (or web "experts")
Last edited by KillTheHumans on Tue May 27, 2008 8:57 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 8:44 pm Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
Geomancer wrote:
KillTheHumans wrote:
You sir, are going to have some FUN around here!
I had the impression that you needed some provocation, so I delivered it. javascript:emoticon('') I do not know enough about the arguments on each side of the oil reserve controversy
Well, don't feel bad, except for one or two of us around here who might have done them, all these guys are capable of is quoting other people who don't know how to do them either.
Geomancer wrote:
Now that I have your attention please be informed that I am well versed in coal gasification and have been involved in the pyrolysis process using plasma energy to convert any organic material to hydrogen and carbon black. More than a decade ago the concept was not profitable, because there was no use for large quantities of hydrogen and even less for carbon black. We have unlimited supply of organic materials suitable as feed material including, but not restricted to garbage, scrap tires, poisonous warfare agents, etc.
Building pyrolysis reactors is cheaper and faster than going for oil in its more difficult formations.
Well, having knowledge on ANY of the reasonable solutions which smart people around here occasionally bring up won't win you any friends either. If you can't come up with an occasionally rousing new verse to the "WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!" refrain...well....lets just say that those of us in the business or having knowledge of whats going to make peak oil irrelevant aren't particularly popular. _________________ Freddy RULZ!
www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits) (or bankers) (or web "experts")
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 8:54 pm Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
Twilight wrote:
Every year the world consumes more oil than it discovers, and this has been the case for coming up to 30 years. Reserve growth from reappraisals of economic recovery, inclusion of new categories of difficult oil and spurious reporting do not change the discovery trend.
Reserve growth doesn't really say anything about the past discovery trend, its just a number, so in that respect your are correct. But it isn't required to. When you "discover" more oil than you consume, it doesn't matter whether its in a 100 year old heavy oil California field or a 5 year old offshore deep water field. Its economic, its there, and it has arrived.
And it isn't spurious reporting when you put it in your gas tank, a point everyone tries so studiously to pretend doesn't exist when proclaiming their dislike for reserve numbers.
Twilight wrote:
By the way, the EIA, like the IEA, BP Statistical Review, the journals and others, do not rely exclusively on data they gather themselves. We only have their word, so "buyer beware" when reading even the most reputable statistical publications.
Fortunately, some of us are not limited to EIA, IEA or BP data when we put together our insights on the subject. _________________ Freddy RULZ!
www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits) (or bankers) (or web "experts")
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 9:11 pm Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
Geomancer wrote:
We have unlimited supply of organic materials suitable as feed material including, but not restricted to garbage, scrap tires, poisonous warfare agents, etc.
Building pyrolysis reactors is cheaper and faster than going for oil in its more difficult formations.
Ummm... I'm not particularly interested in the reserve growth debate right now, but I have to wonder. When this 'unlimited supply of organic materials suitable as feed' stock turns out to be NOT 'unlimited', since at least the ones you've named are all derived from a SHRINKING petroleum resource base, then what?
Oh wait, let me guess. Coal gasification, right?
*sigh*
Just exactly what part of UNINHABITABLE PLANET don't you people get? _________________ "It means buckle your seatbelt, Dorothy, because Kansas? Is goin' bye-bye... "
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') I do not know enough about the arguments on each side of the oil reserve controversy to be able to use my knowledge on the subject, so I borrowed some ideas from more eminent thinkers.
