I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 8:19 pm Post subject: Re: Electric Cars = the Next Mass Market Technology
More overloaded transformers failing during summers in the US then, as they can no longer cool at night? Ideally, that night-time capacity would always be free. Sometimes it isn't, as headlines have showed in the recent past. Not every city will escape expensive changes. Ones which one might argue are required anyway, but plug-in electric cars would certainly force the issue.
Demand-side management, well that is the holy grail, isn't it? That is why this is not happening without standards being agreed. The last thing the world needs is lazy people plugging their cars in straight after the rush hour while they light up their house, cook and watch TV, or everyone setting their smart meter / timer in such a way that there is clustering of demand.
That power to choose will have to be taken out of users' hands quite substantially, and that is a harder sell.
It seems more and more of a moot point to me though, I think new car purchases will be far from the minds of most people during the next decade of economic turmoil. _________________ Volatility. When life isn't exciting enough.
Joined: Aug 23, 2004 Posts: 534 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 9:35 pm Post subject: Re: Electric Cars = the Next Mass Market Technology
Quote:
Demand-side management, well that is the holy grail, isn't it? That is why this is not happening without standards being agreed. The last thing the world needs is lazy people plugging their cars in straight after the rush hour while they light up their house, cook and watch TV, or everyone setting their smart meter / timer in such a way that there is clustering of demand.
I was watching a documentary bout the grid in England. During the Final game of last soccer world cup it was all hands on deck for the final whistle as the whole country turned their kettles on at the same time. It caused a tremendous spike over only a minute or two.
Joined: Aug 03, 2007 Posts: 4402 Location: Boston Suburbs
Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 12:02 am Post subject: Re: Electric Cars = the Next Mass Market Technology
misterno wrote:
Before anythingelse please read the peak lithium folder.
Then you will understand why electric cars are a no go.
Nonsense. There is enough lithium to go around. Nobody even wants to recycle it yet, unlike lead. Also, if silicon nanowire batteries come out, we'll need a lot fewer of them to get the same range.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2736 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 2:58 am Post subject: Re: Electric Cars = the Next Mass Market Technology
With LEDs, Never Change Another Light Bulb
Quote:
They will be called “light engines,” according to Frank Shinneman, CEO of Westhampton, NJ-based Lamina Lighting, referring to new light-emitting diode (LED) technologies. Shinneman said Lamina, an LED technologies developer, has started selling LED socket replaceable bulbs that, “You will never have to change again.” He added, “There’s a wave coming at us,” as first businesses and then, eventually, homeowners switch en mass to LED lighting. “The time is now,” Shinneman further said. “The market is ready for change.”
This is part 2 of 7. LED tech may help reduce demand on grid for EV's. _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 6:27 am Post subject: Re: Electric Cars = the Next Mass Market Technology
Quote:
Before anythingelse please read the peak lithium debate.
I need to look at this closely. This is the big issue.
A retro fit battery pack for a Prius that gets it up to 50 mile range on plug in electric only costs 10 grand.
10 grand.
That does not bode well for battery technology moving forward.
As for the poster who responded to "peak lithium" my saying "nonsense", I'm LOL here. You sound just like most people who have just heard of Peak Oil.
EV is all about the batteries. Capacity and recharge rate. Everything else is simple and already in place.
By the way, for the UK guy who said that "Yanks" would need 2 scooters, one for each arse, i say, have you looked in the mirror recently? The UK obesity rate is near or past the US rate, ol' boy. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 11:01 am Post subject: Re: Electric Cars = the Next Mass Market Technology
My problem with the electric car is--how do you get them to pay the equivalent tax that gasoline-powered cars currently do?
Gas taxes are basically road user fees. We can argue about the amount that should be charged but it's a fair system. Those smaller cars pay less per mile because they cause less "wear and tear" on the roads.
Electric car drivers would be getting an unfair subsidy. If you tax the electricity, you'd be forcing those people who do not drive electric cars to directly pay for roads that they do not use.
Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 11:21 am Post subject: Re: Electric Cars = the Next Mass Market Technology
Interesting point, Spidey. But in the US road money comes from lots of different sources, not just gas tax. Those who don't drive have long argued that they are being unfairly taxed for infrastructure they don't (directly) use.
Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 12:48 pm Post subject: Re: Electric Cars = the Next Mass Market Technology
ClassicSpiderman wrote:
My problem with the electric car is--how do you get them to pay the equivalent tax that gasoline-powered cars currently do?
The realistic answer is EVs will not be made to pay additional tax. Incentives and environmentalism and all that. The taxpayer will pay that tax on something else, if at all. For the sake of argument I suppose existing road tax could be raised to compensate for the difference in running cost between petrol and electric vehicles. The problem is there is then no compelling economic incentive to switch. In the long run, peak oil will mean smaller government, because energy is a very lucrative revenue stream that will be difficult to replace. In the meantime, you could see some unfairness in taxation. _________________ Volatility. When life isn't exciting enough.
Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 3:38 pm Post subject: Re: Electric Cars = the Next Mass Market Technology
[quote="Cashmere"]
Quote:
A retro fit battery pack for a Prius that gets it up to 50 mile range on plug in electric only costs 10 grand.
By the way, for the UK guy who said that "Yanks" would need 2 scooters, one for each arse, i say, have you looked in the mirror recently? The UK obesity rate is near or past the US rate, ol' boy.
Can't resist the odd cross-atlantic jibe now & again, indeed some UK folk would need 3. Incidentally the C5 is a collectors item now, complete with owners club.
Back to the subject, batteries are not the only problem. Most people seem to think as an electric car as a replacement, a right, as though in future most houses will have 2 or more parked on the drive.
What about resource ?. Were talking of replacing (NOT converting) the entire world fleet in a dozen or so years. Rubber, steel, plastic, never mind the techy bits. Also dont forget China's current mad dash for resource, and its probably doomed to failure car production rate. Trouble is China & India will have millions of new oil powered vehicles in a few years, with less & less expensive fuel to run them. That will be a huge waste of resource.
I see resource as the stumbling block for the EV. The technology will be sorted, but will be of limited application.
Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 7:09 pm Post subject: Re: Electric Cars = the Next Mass Market Technology
Twilight wrote:
More overloaded transformers failing during summers in the US then, as they can no longer cool at night?
You say this like its not possible (or even very difficult) to fit a cooling system on existing transformers that don't have them becasue they don't run at night. It's not, and it's also a LOT easier to build transformers than new plants.
Twilight wrote:
Demand-side management, well that is the holy grail, isn't it? That is why this is not happening without standards being agreed. The last thing the world needs is lazy people plugging their cars in straight after the rush hour while they light up their house, cook and watch TV, or everyone setting their smart meter / timer in such a way that there is clustering of demand.
That power to choose will have to be taken out of users' hands quite substantially, and that is a harder sell.
C'mon, nearly everyone has a price, especially when they are already suffering economically. Say power costs 10x more at 3pm than 3am. Still don't think you can curve demand?
Also, appliances such as refrigerators and a/c don't necessarily need to run exactly when they run. Shutting down a few thousand refrigerators and ac units at a key time for only a few minutes could have a big impact.
No one is saying its a quick fix, only that its far short of building hundreds of new plants. _________________ Those that cannot do..... teach. Those that cannot teach......teach gym.-Jack black
Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 7:17 pm Post subject: Re: Electric Cars = the Next Mass Market Technology
Pops wrote:
Twilight wrote:
I have said it before and I will say it again, if electric cars scale faster than the power grid, lights out.
The grid is having a hard time just keeping up with the population who drive ICE's.
Electric cars won't happen without a huge jump in your income tax or electric bill.
Based on what? The only trouble w/ the grid has come from initially gaming the deregulated market to make cash cash money, and to a much smaller extent, the impact of demand side management. _________________
Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 7:21 pm Post subject: Re: Electric Cars = the Next Mass Market Technology
Cashmere wrote:
Quote:
Before anythingelse please read the peak lithium debate.
I need to look at this closely. This is the big issue.
A retro fit battery pack for a Prius that gets it up to 50 mile range on plug in electric only costs 10 grand.
10 grand.
That does not bode well for battery technology moving forward.
That has little to do w/ battery tech. It's about ~5-7 grand in profit per conversion. DIY and it's only a couple. It's an individual's choice whether they want to get ripped a new one or not. _________________
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