Posted: Fri May 30, 2008 2:17 am Post subject: Peak Oil implication
Dear all,
I have been browsing this site for sometime. I am a believer in peak oil but I have different belief in its potential damage to mankind. I totally disagree with the end of easy oil, the modern age comes to an end. I believe it will bring about to an economic depression for about a decade that will force the entire world to change the way it produce and consume energy. Peak oil brings about depression, mankind suffer for 10 years and things go back to normal. That's my belief. Now about that, I would like to raise a question. Doesn't any of you have faith in the ability of free market to mitigate the Peak Oil (Some purist capitalist even believe that free market will solve peak oil without any significant problem). Like fuel prices at astronomical cost, Doesn't it will bring about new innovations to produce energy like new technology biofuel to replace our transportation fuel. At a certain price, there will be a lot of new technology to produce electricity as there will be less and less oil for power station. So let me again repeat my belief, I believe in peak oil but I don't believe the gigantic storm that comes with it like the end of modern civilization or modern age. Another question to raise? Do people believe in the doomsday scenario underestimated the innovative capability of mankind?
Posted: Fri May 30, 2008 2:40 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil implication
First Welcome!
I would have some follow up questions to your statement.
When you speak of energy consumption returning to normal after a depression, do you have a favorite theory about where that energy will come from?
Many here started thinking the same thing, that oil would be replaced with something else, but since they haven't been able to make the math work (ie find a source that is scalable to replace the petrol that we will be loosing due to depletion) they become more and more gloomy. Perhaps you can give them hope again.
There are many here who believe in the ingenuity of the human race, some to replace the energy with another source and others who think (or at least hope) we will be able to carry on with an evolved culture(s) which use less energy.
Finally, we can play rough here, trading arguments and throwing the occasional elbow, please don't take anything personally and explore the site and enjoy the ride. _________________ "Against stupidity the gods themselves contend in vain."
-Friedrich von Schiller
"Politics is not the art of the possible. It consists in choosing between the disastrous and the unpalatable."
John Kenneth Galbraith
Posted: Fri May 30, 2008 3:39 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil implication
-When you speak of energy consumption returning to normal after a depression, do you have a favorite theory about where that energy will come from?
I am not saying energy consumption will return to normal. So let say, GDP per capita of the developed countries is $38,000 before the depression. The Depression would knock it off by 50% (maybe more?) before returning to normal. So eventually when the developed countries return to $38,000 then everything is back to normal. Returning to that economic level with less energy per capita perharps.
My favourite theory is that transportation fuel will be replaced by biofuel and finally hydrogen in the form of biohydrogen will be cheaply produced from plants just like biofuel. I do know that hydrogen of today is like battery. The production of hydrogen is a negative energy return. But hydrogen produced from plants is not.
If public transportation can evolve to the level that it can provide a means of transport to a citizen conveniently(like Hong Kong and Singapore) and requires no crude oil product to run. The 70% usage of crude oil on transportation can slowly be broken. The biofuels and biohydrogen will be available to the middle class who can afford them and the aviation. This is the scenario that I envision.
I am an optimist in human will but a pessimist in the geological fact that oil is fast depleting. So the scenario of world depression followed by a painful recovery fits well into my world view
I really would like to know if a lot of you share this opinion?
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1816 Location: Australia
Posted: Fri May 30, 2008 4:00 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil implication
Quote:
My favourite theory is that transportation fuel will be replaced by biofuel and finally hydrogen in the form of biohydrogen will be cheaply produced from plants just like biofuel. I do know that hydrogen of today is like battery. The production of hydrogen is a negative energy return. But hydrogen produced from plants is not.
Of course new things will come up. The problem is that we don't know yet what these are and how long it will take before alternatives can be rolled out in a large scale.
Biofuel is already controversial as food is converted to fuel or agrable land that could be used to grow food is used to grow switchgrass etc.
Hydrogen would be nice but we are still far from a large scale solution. The working solution now would be something that can make hydrogen on demand as using pipeline systems, storage or fuel tanks aren't suitable. (Hydrogen makes metal brittle and sips through + can casue nasty explosions)
Secondly, I've never heard about production of hydrogen from plants. To my knowledge hydrogen fuel comes from ripping apart water molecules. This takes energy. When the hydrogen later is combined with oxygen it forms water again and extra energy is released.
Anyway dig around the forum here, alternatives have been discussed at length.
The main issue I have is that the goverments won't officially recognise that there is a problem and start mitigation programs.
Hirsch report concluded that at least 20 years is needed to develop alternatives. _________________ Lets take a ride, and run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
You cant hide, run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
- Pet Shop Boys
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1976 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Fri May 30, 2008 6:30 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil implication
Fayadi wrote:
Peak oil brings about depression, mankind suffer for 10 years and things go back to normal.
The last 50-100 years are not normal, however. Rapid, and exponential, economic and population growth are not normal.
There is no reason to think that any return to a "normality" of constant growth would not end in another depression. An unsustainable way of life is not sustainable, no matter what energy source we end up with. Economic growth requires increasing consumption of resources, and energy, along with the inevitable damage to our habitat. This is unsustainable.
So, a depression is inevitable, that is true, unless we move quickly to different living arrangements. A sustainable society, however, would be utterly different from what we have now. If we ever get back to what you regard as "normal", it would signal that we had learned nothing and so be destined to a society that will be on an undulating slope down to oblivion.
Posted: Fri May 30, 2008 8:42 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil implication
Quote:
Peak oil brings about depression, mankind suffer for 10 years and things go back to normal.
What we have here folks is a DSE type 3.
Type 1 - Big oil is screwing us.
Type 2 - There's plenty of oil, we just need to drill for it.
Type 3 - Alternatives will save us.
OP - you're wrong. If you think we "go back to normal" you need to read a lot more.
We'll go back to normal just like Easter Island went back to normal. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Posted: Fri May 30, 2008 8:58 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil implication
Fayadi wrote:
Dear all,
I have been browsing this site for sometime. I am a believer in peak oil but I have different belief in its potential damage to mankind. I totally disagree with the end of easy oil, the modern age comes to an end. I believe it will bring about to an economic depression for about a decade that will force the entire world to change the way it produce and consume energy. Peak oil brings about depression, mankind suffer for 10 years and things go back to normal. That's my belief. Now about that, I would like to raise a question. Doesn't any of you have faith in the ability of free market to mitigate the Peak Oil (Some purist capitalist even believe that free market will solve peak oil without any significant problem). Like fuel prices at astronomical cost, Doesn't it will bring about new innovations to produce energy like new technology biofuel to replace our transportation fuel. At a certain price, there will be a lot of new technology to produce electricity as there will be less and less oil for power station. So let me again repeat my belief, I believe in peak oil but I don't believe the gigantic storm that comes with it like the end of modern civilization or modern age. Another question to raise? Do people believe in the doomsday scenario underestimated the innovative capability of mankind?
You are entitled to your beliefs. But, I'd lump your beliefs in the category of what the atheists call wishful thinking. Do you know that mankind has created thousands of 'gods' over the years all through 'wishful thinking' my friend?
When you go outdoors just look around you and picture how life will change with no crude oil. Put a halt to everything crude powers or is a raw material of and then put your imagination to work on that picture.
Being an agnostic myself I will readily admit I may be wrong in my future thought. The brainiacs may discover how to burn water and air and make tires and asphalt from corn. But in my own life I am not gambling on that happening. I am preparing for the worst. My survival mentor says to prepare for the unthinkable one must first think the unthinkable.
I've talked about PO to other forums like kayakers, mountain bikers and backpackers. Most of them just blow me away and make jokes about PO. Other forums like the RV crowd say I am an alarmist and the political forums ban me telling me I am promoting propaganda. So for the sake of our inner peace we must accept our job is to just plant the seeds...but we cannot force them to sprout in others.
Many people say nuclear will fix al our woes. Well, uranium is not an endless natural recourse nor is coal. We got other problems right in line with peak fish and food We got peak water, peak uranium, peak crude oil and peak NG to name a few.
The World Coal Institute estimates world energy reserves as follows:
"At current production levels coal will be available for at least the next 155 years compared to 41 years for oil and 65 years for gas."
Even though this was written a few years ago and it is based on 'current production and consumption' it gives the same haunting message to the generations to come.
Have you ever thought about how much of our life is dependent on natural gas for cooking, heating and hot water?
And do you know that much of your life is dependent on natural gas outside its use as an energy source?
We will run out of natural gas, just as we deplete our crude supplies in the near future.
Natural gas is a raw material in many of our products we depend on.
Almost all the helium we produce comes from natural gas.
Propane, synthetic fertilizers, ammonia?
They are totally dependent on natural gas.
Our population boom was fueled by synthetic fertilizers made from natural; gas. Once the gas dries up so does the fertilizer and a shortage of fertilizer equals a shortage of food.
Natural; gas is also used as an energy source to produce steel, glass, paper, clothing, brick, electricity
Even if we did find out how to burn water for energy, petrochemicals make up a large portion of crude's importance to mankind. Roughly 9% of every barrel of crude goes to petrochemical use. If we stopped burning crude this instant, we would still suck the wells dry, albeit not as quickly, just from petrochemical use.
Some work has been done with making plastics from corn, but it can't touch the variety of plastic and rubber products that crude produces.
So even if we all stop driving we will just be postponing the inevitable that our artificial way of living is going to change in the not so distant future.
From this list we can see that we are still massively depend on crude for our non sustainable lifestyle. There is no replacement for crude...crude is in the details of our life.
Book and DVD list. All available from your local library.
A Thousand Barrels a Second: the coming oil break point and the challenges facing an energy dependent world
by Tertzakian, Peter
Twilight in the Desert: the coming Saudi oil shock and the world economy
by Simmons, Matthew R.
Well written book examining 12 of the key Saudi oil fields.
Posted: Fri May 30, 2008 9:06 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil implication
All good responses so far.
Personally, I began my peak oil journey a believer in technology and inventiveness of the human spirit. It took some time and reflection to understand that peak oil is merely a symptom. All the other "peaks" are symptoms as well. The real problem is that we've (the whole world) bought into a system that has no future. If we were a corporation, people would say we've got the wrong business model. That's because it only works in the short term, and while that's where we all live, those who come after us must inhabit the world we create. That will require a whole new business model, one so different that we today can't even imagine what it may be.
We'll get there some how, it's just not likely to be pleasant. _________________ Who is John Galt?
Posted: Fri May 30, 2008 9:25 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil implication
mark wrote:
All good responses so far.
Personally, I began my peak oil journey a believer in technology and inventiveness of the human spirit. It took some time and reflection to understand that peak oil is merely a symptom. All the other "peaks" are symptoms as well. The real problem is that we've (the whole world) bought into a system that has no future. If we were a corporation, people would say we've got the wrong business model. That's because it only works in the short term, and while that's where we all live, those who come after us must inhabit the world we create. That will require a whole new business model, one so different that we today can't even imagine what it may be.
We'll get there some how, it's just not likely to be pleasant.
Yes, I agree....defective model for long term population support. We can only keep on keeping on as long as the crude is free flowing and affordable by the masses.
It would be one thing if we all reverted back to rural living, burning trees for fuel and housing and living within our comfortable means allotted to us by nature, as our ancestors did back in the day. But seven billion people can't burn the trees!
We must accept that we have built our world on unsustainable means - a means built artificially on fossil fuel.
And when we live out of balance with natures intended means there is a price to pay to come back in balance with nature. And the price usually extracts pain from us in the adjustment process.
It has been estimated that for the earth to sustainably support its population without fossil fuels a 90% dieoff must occur. I don't know if that is the right figure, but I do know humans could not live as they do unless it was funded by artificial means via fossil fuels.
So if this dieoff happens, of course there will be great amounts of pain in the world. But it is natures intended balancing act. It also reminds us that nature does not bow to humans - it is humans that always bow to nature.
Animals live within their intended balance with nature and it is only man that destroys his environment and has to pay the price through pain and suffering from working against nature.
Joined: Oct 08, 2005 Posts: 46 Location: Minneapolis, MN
Posted: Fri May 30, 2008 12:22 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil implication
OP, if you've been a lurker here for as long as you say, then you should know better.
A 10 year depression followed by a "return to normal"? That is a total fairy-tale, my friend. I wish it were that simple.
You need to read a LOT more about these issues. The very essence of Peak Oil theory and the concepts of overshoot are at total odds with your belief. _________________ I tread lightly as I can on the Earth.
MonteQuest, "Same thing."
yesplease, "What's the same thing?"
MonteQuest, "You and a troll."
_________________
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1976 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Fri May 30, 2008 4:41 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil implication
allenwrench wrote:
I'd lump your beliefs in the category of what the atheists call wishful thinking.
Yes, wishful thinking is the prevalent attitude among the long term optimists (whether or not they think peak oil will cause massive pain initially). It's easy to spot. Whenever someone uses past trends to forecast the future, whenever someone uses some small advance in the lab to forecast the future, whenever someone points to small scale alternatives without showing that they can scale, whenever someone tries to substitute another finite resource for a declining finite resource, whenever someone assumes humans can't adversely impact their environment, whenever someone points to space as an unlimited resource bank, whenever someone assumes population forecasts from a decade ago are fact, you will see wishful thinking.
Wishes sometimes come true, but you'll also often find that an awful lot of wishes need to come true for the optimists favoured "solution" to see us painlessly through to a utopian future. Whenever you see no acknowledgment of the finite nature of our world or of the known fact that the earth is the only planet we are guaranteed to inhabit or mine, you will see wishful thinking. It is wishful thinking that will ultimately lead us to collapse.
I'm sorry, Ludi, but this has nothing to offer people other than to be fatalistic and look forward to collapse as a way to reset humanity back into hunter gatherers, in which maybe 99 out of 100 of us will not live through the die-off to see.
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 12469 Location: zombie horde wonderland
Posted: Fri May 30, 2008 5:52 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil implication
mos6507 wrote:
I'm sorry, Ludi, but this has nothing to offer people other than to be fatalistic and look forward to collapse as a way to reset humanity back into hunter gatherers, in which maybe 99 out of 100 of us will not live through the die-off to see.
That's fine, some may find it interesting. _________________ No original ideas are contained in this post.
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
