How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Joined: Apr 12, 2007 Posts: 1162 Location: Central NC
Posted: Sun Jun 01, 2008 9:12 am Post subject: Re: Polar cities for future survivors of peak oil, migration
topsoil formation rate is 500 to 1000 years to the inch. 500 years from now in the polar regions there might be an additional, say 1/4 inch. That would wash away the first time the ground was tilled.
Dan, you simply aren't considering the entire picture. There is a lot more going on than simply warming temperatures. That term sounds kinda benign, doesn't it?
Posted: Sun Jun 01, 2008 9:40 am Post subject: Re: Polar cities for survivors in future times?
danbloom wrote:
eXpat wrote:
An integral part for cities like those, is to have future generations of humans able to breath methane. Because in the context you propose (year 2500), that will be Earth's atmosphere, after the changes in climate that are unraveling now.
Explain more. Yes, I have heard about that but don't know the details. If the tundra melts up there and releases methane, global warming will get worse, tropics and central regions will not be livable, only places in extreme north will be able to grow food, so -- polar cities might be needed. MIGHT. However, as you say, the very might be unbreathable, so all humans will die, most animals too, maybe fish will survive under water, and evolution will start all over again, and diverge, maybe won't go down human monkey path next time.....SMILE.
but do tell me more about this M thing. When will this likely happen, i mean, the atmoshere unbreathable...? of course, before 2500.....i am just being generous...
would you say maybe 2100 or 2200?
when? any charts?
Hi danbloom sorry to answer late, I posted that comment late at night before going to sleep. Regarding the methane question, I would like to recommend you this book:
Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet, by Mark Lynas
ISBN-10: 0007209045
and you can check this link too: http://www.marklynas.org/sixdegrees
There are several threads here in PO.com discussing the issue as well .
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic40513.html http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic39981.html http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic39706.html http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic38801.html
Basically when it comes to CO2 we are in the threshold to put enough of it in the atmosphere to rise global temperature by 3 C degrees (currently there´s more that enough to rise temperatures to 2C which will cause profounds changes in the climate). The problem with the raise of 3C is that, when that temperature is reached, no only there´s not going back, but that will cause (due to desertification and other causes) that droughts will arrive and be a permanent feature in several parts of the world, wiping out entire forests -therefore releasing more CO2 sequestered in the trees- , and melting other methane reservoirs such as the ones in the siberian tundra, which in turn will raise globally temperatures by another degree, and... you get the picture.
The problem with climate change, is not that it just get hotter so we have to migrate to the poles and it will be all right, the problem is that we a modifying the entire atmosphere of the planet. From then on, conditions will get worse and worse, till Earth reaches a new equilibrium, in conditions that will make impossible for humans (along with 95% of the species that inhabit our planet) to live. _________________ Stocking up on popcorn
Posted: Sun Jun 01, 2008 8:26 pm Post subject: Re: Polar cities for survivors in future times?
KingM wrote:
The earth has been much warmer in the past than it is now and as you can see by looking at any globe, there is as much or more land near the poles as in the whole rest of the world put together. Greenland alone is bigger than France, Germany, Spain, and England put together. I'm not worried about running out of land for human habitation.
But don't get carried away. No amount of global warming, however, will make Antarctica a pleasant place to live.
wow, I did not know that Greenland was so huge. Good point.
as for Antarctica, people will also live there, perhaps 100,000 survivors from Australia and NZ and South America and South AFrica and India........and no, it won't be a pretty picture. Survival in 2500 will not be pretty. But the point will be to continue breeding the species, that;s all. No more ipods and SUVs....
Posted: Sun Jun 01, 2008 8:32 pm Post subject: Re: Polar cities for survivors in future times?
Homesteader wrote:
Dan,
.... planning a city for 2500 is to long a time horizon. Even as a doomer I still think technology will grow in unpredictable ways.
Given the rate of climate change, positive feedback loops, and the unforeseen it might be better to plan for 2050 or 2100.
Good points and thanks for links. Good stuff. as for planning for 2050 or 2100, go for it. I also agree with you on those dates. but I said to the media that my polar cities are for 2050, do you think one reporter would return my call? No way. Even Leanan at this board will not report my news. Refused two times already.... what's up with that?
Posted: Sun Jun 01, 2008 8:36 pm Post subject: Re: Polar cities for survivors in future times?
[quote="eXpat"]
Thanks. Yes, I;ve read Lynas, am in touch with him in the UK. Six Degrees important book. He knows about my polar cities idea too.
as for methane research, there is a very good reseacher scientist at Univ of Alaska Fairbanks, Dr. Katey Walter , doing important research on release of methane. Google her. She is the top scientist on this now.
Posted: Sun Jun 01, 2008 8:42 pm Post subject: Re: Polar cities for future survivors of peak oil, migration
midnight-gamer wrote:
Quote:
run by UN or separate national govts on whose land they are on, NOW, so that they will be ready, for when the shite hites the fane, so to speak.
So the government gets to decide who will live in comfort and safety, while the rest of us sit things out?
well, MG, this is what we need to hammer out NOW, how to figure out who gets in, what the process will be, who gets left out. If we do no planning now, then sure, the rich and VIPs will get in and leave the rest of us out. Mad Max versus the Rich and Powerful inside the Polar cities. Not fair. I agree with you. that is why i am calling on the UN and world govts NOW to start planning this process so that it is as democratic and fair as possible. Not everyone will be allowed in. So let's plan the process now. At least air the concerns. yes, that is paramount.
Part of my reason in calling for polar cities, as a media story, is to get people, and govts and the UN and groups thinking about who gets in and who gets left outside. This is tres important! No?
I don't have answers. I started this project in 2006 in order to ask questions. Give me your answer: who gets in , how gets left out, who guards these polar cities, even in 2050, 2100, whenever, the thing is let's start talking about the planning and admittance process now. NOW. what's the best way to do it?
Posted: Sun Jun 01, 2008 8:53 pm Post subject: Re: Polar cities for future survivors of peak oil, migration
RogueEconomist wrote:
I already live in the Polar Region, specifically in Alaska north of Anchorage.
Yes, Alaska will be full of new migrants by 2500, perhaps "sooner". Hehe. I lived in Alaska for 12 years, Nome and Juneau and Fairbanks, with short stops in Anchorage. Vistied King Island and Little Diomede and Shishmaref and Teller. Great land, Alaska is. Hardy people. They will be on the frontlines of this new migration north as peak oil and climate change combine to create The Great Interruption. Alaska will be where most Americans will go.
When a New York Times blog reported on this, a woman in Fairbanks, commenting on the fact that polar cities might be in Alaska for survivors of all this, she said: "who says we are gonna let you guys in?" (and she was jokingly directing her remarks to readers in the lower 48!).
humor is needed too. but yes, Alaska will be on the front lines of the polar city stuff, and I suspect old gold mines in Juneau can be used to polar cities, as well as gold mine caves all over the state and in Skagay and Haines and Whitehorse Canada too. This is NOT science fiction anymore. This is the future. Alaskans will be there front and center. Migrations north a la THE ROAD will bring thousndas up there. Get ready. Be prepared. Please welcome everyone in.
Me, too. I wanna go back there, too.
I recently wrote a commentary for the Anchorage Daily News for the COMPASS section, but the editors have not printed it yet. They said they will, soon. It's not scaremongering, but the editors need to be cautious. Let's see if they print it.
I can post it here later if they reject it, for some reason. Like an I am not a PHD and I don't have academic cred and am not a VIP in the climate change movement or something like that....
Posted: Sun Jun 01, 2008 10:20 pm Post subject: Re: Polar cities for future survivors of peak oil, migration
RogueEconomist wrote:
I already live in the Polar Region, specifically in Alaska north of Anchorage.
Rogue Economist
Dear RE,
Do you know if the state of Alaska is already doing any emergency planning via Homeland Security officials for mass migrations north, if it comes to that, will the state be prepared, are they even talking about this worst case scenario in the legislative halls in Juneau?
Danny, former legislative assistant to Rep. KaY Wallis, Juneau, 1990.
Joined: Mar 12, 2007 Posts: 844 Location: As close as I can get to the beginning of the pipe.
Posted: Mon Jun 02, 2008 12:59 am Post subject: Re: Polar cities for survivors in future times?
Well, Dan, welcome and congratulations. This time is the first time I've ever wished that a thread would just disappear. Would you please send all these supposed migrants somewhere else?
You can probably relax about the long term effects of global warming on migrations. This business will take a while. Most of us won't be alive in 500 years. I'm more concerned about what a new gasline boom will do to the state of Alaska. _________________ "For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." --Patrick Henry
Posted: Mon Jun 02, 2008 5:55 am Post subject: Re: Polar cities for survivors in future times?
Iaato wrote:
Well, Dan, welcome and congratulations. This time is the first time I've ever wished that a thread would just disappear. Would you please send all these supposed migrants somewhere else?
You can probably relax about the long term effects of global warming on migrations. This business will take a while. Most of us won't be alive in 500 years. I'm more concerned about what a new gasline boom will do to the state of Alaska.
Iaato, i like your sense of humor re wishing such a thread would disappear. I have written an article for the Anchorage Daily News about all this, but so far they have not told me if they will publish it. Most people don't want to think about 500 years from now, like you said. Me, I already got all the money i need in life, so I am not worried about the present and I am gonna kick the bucket one of these fine days anyways, so I AM worried about 2500. Maybe that's a bit too far in the future. Maybe 2121 or 2323. It will happen. Alaska will be inundated with millions of migrants seeking shelter and safety there, and food. But we won't be around.
Just a non threatening thought experiment, this polar cities idea. Google it for more info.
Joined: Sep 01, 2005 Posts: 250 Location: New Hampshire USA
Posted: Mon Jun 02, 2008 11:27 am Post subject: Re: Polar cities for survivors in future times?
Hi Dan, may I ask if you would provide us with more information about yourself? How did you come to learn about global warming? Do you hold a degree in a related field?
Posted: Mon Jun 02, 2008 9:37 pm Post subject: Re: Polar cities for survivors in future times?
midnight-gamer wrote:
Hi Dan, may I ask if you would provide us with more information about yourself? How did you come to learn about global warming? Do you hold a degree in a related field?
You mean, like PHD and related academic cred? Nope.
Just a country boy with a college BA from Tufts in 1971, have been a newspaper reporter and editor all my life in several countries,-- USA, Alaska, France, Japan, Taiwan......-- no PHD, flunked science in college, my college degree was in modern literature, is that a related field? I don;t know. maybe just for scifientists like me.....
But to answer your question MG, I am not an expert in climate change, I am not a scientist, and have no academic cred. just a dreamer dreaming. but i detect some resistance to my ideas here at peak oil, why is that? or am i just imagining things....?
maybe you can clue me in
Here is latest news story in print about polar cities...
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