Oil's energy contribution has declined by about 12% since 1999. The world's economies have also declined by about 12%. (Using conventional metrics, which are time delayed determinations, this will only be seen in hind sight). The massive destruction of asset values now occurring testifies to it happening.
Peak is well behind us, world economies have peaked and will continue to decline.
Now that oil is up over $130 a barrel and the subprime debacle is making everyone think that there may just be a Big Problem in the future, I would like to reopen the discussion on the menu du jour, post-Peak. Tractor trailers may not be able to bring in our Krispie Flakes and California oranges, and we may have to “make other arrangements,” as James Howard Kunstler often says, to feed ourselves. I am worried with the frequency that I see “gardens” as a solution to a breakdown in the food supply, and I would like to disabuse the peaknik crowd of this dangerous illusion.
“If there’s a problem with the food supply, I’ll just garden,” you say! If the Peak comes and causes disruptions in the food supply, your Hubbert Victory garden will see you through the winter months. I’m sure most of us love to picture ourselves putting up forty quarts of tomatoes and salting beans for the winter in a large beige crock. With your green thumb and Mason jars you’ll can enough to last until next year’s first corn comes in.
This is a nice fantasy, but I would ask the more serious to do a simple survey. Each of us likely has a friend who has a fairly large garden. Ask him or her what percentage of their family’s yearly food intake comes from the garden – I would be astounded if any say more than two percent. Annual gardening, like agriculture, takes an enormous input of energy for the return you get, and that is assuming you are good at it.
This has been on my mind for a while. Gardening is satisfying and can certainly be a supplement to one's diet, but we can't let the existing mass agriculture system falter, we are too far in overshoot and so many Americans (and others) are totally green to gardening, in the newb sense that is. So many in urban areas - apartment dwellers and the like - essentially are incapable of producing much of anything.
Nowak isn't entirely dismissive of gardening efforts - he advocates lowering your inputs, relying on perennials instead of annuals, and using low maintenance crops. But far more critical than any of these efforts is ensuring that rural areas can continue to function and produce what we need, which wasn't the subject of his article, but I felt compelled to bring up. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
Joined: Jan 02, 2008 Posts: 403 Location: out dispatching ronan...
Posted: Sun Jun 08, 2008 1:02 am Post subject: Re: A doomer's garden
TheDude wrote:
Nowak isn't entirely dismissive of gardening efforts - he advocates lowering your inputs, relying on perennials instead of annuals, and using low maintenance crops.
Good points Dude. I live on a farm in Australia that for the last 50 years has been exclusively, a 'beef' farm. Now, as beef isn't economically viable for farms in my category ( < 100 head ), change is imperative.
So we're moving the farm in a silviculture and agroforestry direction now. That is, mixed perennial fodder crops and timber plantations, with reduced grazing to serve the local town.
If the farm continued under it's current 'business equation' (to borrow Kunstler's term), in a few years there would be no top soil left at all, and it will end up a barren desert. That's the trouble with modern food production. To grow so much, for so many mouths means a massive net loss to the quality of the environment of the farm itself. In that model there is no care for the soil and it's biodiversity.
It's nuked with pesticides to clear 'weeds', and pumped with fertilizer steroids. There is a permaculture saying "I'm sick growing things that want to die, and killing things that want to live".
Posted: Sun Jun 08, 2008 1:28 am Post subject: Re: A doomer's garden
I heard something on T.V. a few months back... It said that during World War II, 70% of domestic food came from "victory gardens". 70%, that's a lot.
I live in an urban neighborhood. My friends live in suburban neighborhoods. I can stand in my back yard and look up and down the row of backyards and see no gardens (mine included). Same for my friends backyards. There is a lot of land out there not being used, and it's as close as our own back yard.
Now, I haven't researched this 70% number that I caught while watching T.V. I don't know how true it is. But, we can do a lot when working together for a greater good.
Joined: Jan 02, 2008 Posts: 403 Location: out dispatching ronan...
Posted: Sun Jun 08, 2008 1:53 am Post subject: Re: A doomer's garden
nekcmo wrote:
I live in an urban neighborhood. My friends live in suburban neighborhoods. I can stand in my back yard and look up and down the row of backyards and see no gardens (mine included). Same for my friends backyards. There is a lot of land out there not being used, and it's as close as our own back yard.
Welcome to peakoil.com nekcmo
As Gandhi said, "...be the change you want to see in the world.". If victory gardens inspire you, start one up! You could be the first person in your street who reactivates the local food trade economy. You might even save your ass while you're at it....
Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 3361 Location: Resiliency Farm
Posted: Sun Jun 08, 2008 6:06 am Post subject: Re: A doomer's garden
nekcmo wrote:
I heard something on T.V. a few months back... It said that during World War II, 70% of domestic food came from "victory gardens". 70%, that's a lot.
I live in an urban neighborhood. My friends live in suburban neighborhoods. I can stand in my back yard and look up and down the row of backyards and see no gardens (mine included). Same for my friends backyards. There is a lot of land out there not being used, and it's as close as our own back yard.
Now, I haven't researched this 70% number that I caught while watching T.V. I don't know how true it is. But, we can do a lot when working together for a greater good.
First I find that a little hard to believe on two accounts, the first being did it include grains? 70% of grains came from home gardens? I doubt it. Which means it was not 70% of calories but of what? by bulk or weight? maybe... the stat needs some investigating to find out what it really means.
Second, what percentage of Americans lived on farms in 1942?
By definition a farm has more area to plant in food and to share with auntie Gracie who lives in the city (contributing to the statistic). There is a lot of unused space around you I grant. If you chop down some trees it might even get enough sun. If you and all of your neighbors collect rainwater or the like, growing something on it might not add any additional stress on the water table etc etc...
Finally their is the question of population. We have not made any more land since 1942 but we have made more people lets take a look:
And so on and so forth. Now I garden... almost 2000 sq foot of garden plus a fair number of periennials. I would need a couple of years and some additional acres to grow 100% of my families food needs.
I am planning accordingly. _________________ “It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”
J.R.R. Tolkien
"The time has come for men to act like men; and for women, well, to act a lot more like men."
-Ma Cur
Posted: Sun Jun 08, 2008 6:09 am Post subject: Re: A doomer's garden
I've oftern wondered about this...nothing I grow has very much caloric value. This year has been especially poor for whatever reason (two weeks of 100 degree temps in May maybe). And to add insult to injury the city is going to bulldoze the only part of my garden that is producing (thai 38 inch long beans, Chinese red noodle beans, and Upo) to put down another ribbon of oil (gotta hurry before it runs out). Next year I'm going to plant a LOT more sweet potatoes, if I have the chance.
Posted: Sun Jun 08, 2008 6:49 am Post subject: Re: A doomer's garden
There is plenty of information out there on how to grow everything under the sun. You do need a little space. The cities simply don't have enough and have a bunch of pesky ordinances that get in the way.
In my town, backyard chickens are in violation of code. I live a mile from City Hall, yet I can hear at least 4 roosters besides my own. I have a corner sectioned off with 5' fence in which the birds run around and do their chicken thing. The fence is not so much to keep the birds in, but to keep the dogs out. If it were not for the dogs, I'd fence the garden, letting the birds rznge as they please. I've done it before, they visit everyone and always come home at night. I lost 7 birds in 2 days to a couple of dogs which compelled me to make the change. The run is about 30' wide, mostly square. For 5 hens and a rooster, they have ample room to run about and do their thing. I let them out on occasion. Neighbors do not complain. There is no odor, the hens are quiet although the rooster could learn to shut the hell up on Sunday mornings. He still makes considerably less noise than cars driving by with the giant subwoofers rattling the windows. The neighbors toss food scraps to the birds, feed and water them when I'm out of town and get free eggs when I have extra. 5 hens and just me works out to LOTS of extra eggs. If I had the space, I'd get dozens of hens, a couple of pigs, maybe a cow, raise my own meat. In town I can do plants. I'll get the meat going when I get my farm out in the country.
I have an 8x8 greenhouse to start seeds, planting only the best. This gives me considerably better success rates. I repot the seedlings in order to let them grow to about 6-8" high. This offers better use of limited space, gives me strong plants for transplanting, and allows me to mulch immediately. I spend little time weeding. When it is time to replant an area, I have plants ready to go in. Some plants I allow to continue their life cycle in order that I can save open pollenated seed.
In cities and towns where there is backyard space it takes time to reestablish the ecosystem. The soil has been littered with pieces of plastic, nails, broken glass, bricks, debris of all sorts. Often the land has been leveled with builders sand to make a smooth yard on which sod can be laid to make it nice and pretty. Constant irrigation with treated city water has added lots of salts to the soil. Bioremediation with lots of compost is possible, but it can take a few years. Things will grow in the meantime, but results can be unsatisfactory at the start. Persistence will pay off. As you continue to feed the soil with compost made in the back corner, the bugs, worms, bacteria, and all sorts of creepy crawly things will come back. Everything has a job to do. Until there is balance, some creatures will get out of hand. You may lose all your collards to some sort of worm you have never seen before. For every bug there is another bug that will eat it, and they will show up on their own, give it time. I use no pesticides, not even Bt (can't find it around here anyway). My insect losses have been dropping off considerably. After 4 years, the lady bigs showed up. The aphid population is in a panic. I've got a couple of toads out there. I call one of them "Froggy," leave him to do his thing. I see this one skinny red bug, a bunch of them get together in a circle facing each other. I call them Town Meeting Bugs. I don't know if they are good or bad, so I leave them alone. If they are bad, something will show up to eat them soon enough. If they are good, I'm sure they are eating something I don't want around.
You get out of the garden what you put into it. Sure there is effort required. There is no such thing as a free lunch. There is also a point of diminishing returns. A couple of hours a day can give you more food than you know what to do with. There are people who spend that sort of time tending their grass and shrubbery crop, don't get a square meal out of it after years of trying.
MacG wrote:
Well, anyone who think they are better off NOT gardening are of course free to try that option...
Touchee!
That goes for just about anything. _________________ If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face--for ever."
-George Orwell, 1984
There is a huge learning curve here. I hope I have not started too late.
It is, if you don't mind subsisting on potatoes, onions, turnips, parsnips, leeks, parsley, sweet potatoes, filberts, collards, garlic, sunflower seeds, and some wheat berries. It would be unrealistic to expect many people to follow that diet (even though the authors demonstrate it is nutritionally complete).
The value of this book is in showing how to factor in the calorie density and what they term "area efficiency" of various crops. That is, if you only have a small backyard as a planting area, you're better off growing potatoes and not lettuce because the lettuce yields little in the way of calories, protein and carbohydrates (and you can't store lettuce in the root cellar).
There is a huge learning curve here. I hope I have not started too late.
It is, if you don't mind subsisting on potatoes, onions, turnips, parsnips, leeks, parsley, sweet potatoes, filberts, collards, garlic, sunflower seeds, and some wheat berries. It would be unrealistic to expect many people to follow that diet (even though the authors demonstrate it is nutritionally complete).
The value of this book is in showing how to factor in the calorie density and what they term "area efficiency" of various crops. That is, if you only have a small backyard as a planting area, you're better off growing potatoes and not lettuce because the lettuce yields little in the way of calories, protein and carbohydrates (and you can't store lettuce in the root cellar).
that stuff might look better after the last dog is gone...
Now that oil is up over $130 a barrel and the subprime debacle is making everyone think that there may just be a Big Problem in the future, I would like to reopen the discussion on the menu du jour, post-Peak. Tractor trailers may not be able to bring in our Krispie Flakes and California oranges, and we may have to “make other arrangements,” as James Howard Kunstler often says, to feed ourselves. I am worried with the frequency that I see “gardens” as a solution to a breakdown in the food supply, and I would like to disabuse the peaknik crowd of this dangerous illusion.
“If there’s a problem with the food supply, I’ll just garden,” you say! If the Peak comes and causes disruptions in the food supply, your Hubbert Victory garden will see you through the winter months. I’m sure most of us love to picture ourselves putting up forty quarts of tomatoes and salting beans for the winter in a large beige crock. With your green thumb and Mason jars you’ll can enough to last until next year’s first corn comes in.
This is a nice fantasy, but I would ask the more serious to do a simple survey. Each of us likely has a friend who has a fairly large garden. Ask him or her what percentage of their family’s yearly food intake comes from the garden – I would be astounded if any say more than two percent. Annual gardening, like agriculture, takes an enormous input of energy for the return you get, and that is assuming you are good at it.
This has been on my mind for a while. Gardening is satisfying and can certainly be a supplement to one's diet, but we can't let the existing mass agriculture system falter, we are too far in overshoot and so many Americans (and others) are totally green to gardening, in the newb sense that is. So many in urban areas - apartment dwellers and the like - essentially are incapable of producing much of anything.
Nowak isn't entirely dismissive of gardening efforts - he advocates lowering your inputs, relying on perennials instead of annuals, and using low maintenance crops. But far more critical than any of these efforts is ensuring that rural areas can continue to function and produce what we need, which wasn't the subject of his article, but I felt compelled to bring up.
Always the odd exception, but in general, I agree with your post.
Very, very, VERY tough to be totally self sufficient.
I just started to garden and planted an orchard of 24 fruit trees this spring. I also do foraging.
But if the question is can one survive, then one has a chance at being successful at that. Albeit not in the standard of living and eating as they were accustomed to when crude was inexpensive.
Last edited by allenwrench on Sun Jun 08, 2008 7:36 am; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Sun Jun 08, 2008 7:34 am Post subject: Re: A doomer's garden
nekcmo wrote:
I heard something on T.V. a few months back... It said that during World War II, 70% of domestic food came from "victory gardens". 70%, that's a lot.
I live in an urban neighborhood. My friends live in suburban neighborhoods. I can stand in my back yard and look up and down the row of backyards and see no gardens (mine included). Same for my friends backyards. There is a lot of land out there not being used, and it's as close as our own back yard.
Now, I haven't researched this 70% number that I caught while watching T.V. I don't know how true it is. But, we can do a lot when working together for a greater good.
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