Oil's energy contribution has declined by about 12% since 1999. The world's economies have also declined by about 12%. (Using conventional metrics, which are time delayed determinations, this will only be seen in hind sight). The massive destruction of asset values now occurring testifies to it happening.
Peak is well behind us, world economies have peaked and will continue to decline.
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 12:50 am Post subject: Re: CBS News predicts $6+ US gasoline within a few months
Sustained gasoline prices above $6/gallon will grind the US economy down to a sputtering, churning mess of broken gears, busted hoses, cracked gauges, and smoking metallic refuse.
It's looking like 2008 could become the dividing line between the world as we know it, and the world as we knowed it.
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 12:53 am Post subject: Re: CBS News predicts $6+ US gasoline within a few months
Very bad news.
The sheep are going to smell blood soon. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 1:03 am Post subject: Re: CBS News predicts $6+ US gasoline within a few months
Oops. I was going to sell my Jetta this month. I think I will wait until August when the used car bubble gives me a 30% premium. These lawmakers are talking about capping prices, if they do they will find out this summer whether it is a supply issue or a speculative bubble. Of course if they are wrong shortages would result. Now tell me the Presidential election is'nt going to be about the economy.
Joined: Sep 03, 2007 Posts: 640 Location: Sunny Virginia, USA
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 1:18 am Post subject: Re: CBS News predicts $6+ US gasoline within a few months
Peleg wrote:
Oops. I was going to sell my Jetta this month. I think I will wait until August when the used car bubble gives me a 30% premium. These lawmakers are talking about capping prices, if they do they will find out this summer whether it is a supply issue or a speculative bubble. Of course if they are wrong shortages would result. Now tell me the Presidential election is'nt going to be about the economy.
If there is an election, it will be about picking up the pieces. $7 gas will destroy the tourism industry and that will simply start the long anticipated chain reaction towards destroying the economy.
My advice, make sure you've got what you need, for the next few years, without going further into debt. _________________ When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
Joined: Jun 05, 2005 Posts: 365 Location: Portland Oregon, USA
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 1:27 am Post subject: Re: CBS News predicts $6+ US gasoline within a few months
The timing of all this is just dreadful for the unprepared.
Not too long ago, people had home equity and/or numerous credit cards they could tap into if need be while they adjusted to the high prices.
Now, foreclosure rates are through the roof, unemployment/underemployment is up, consumer debt and bankruptcy are sky high, health costs increasing in double digits annually, AND....energy prices up up up.
In short, there is no buffer anymore for most Americans (Not that a new Mastercard is a good buffer, per se). If people cannot even afford to get to their jobs, they will be desperate. Desperate people behave irrationally. They may even support a war with Iran, who does, after all posess a lot of OUR oil.
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 1:47 am Post subject: Re: CBS News predicts $6+ US gasoline within a few months
You know if it were just $6 gas and then stabilized it wouldn't be so bad. It would be a lot like the 70s. With $6 gas a lot non-essential workers loose their jobs and the rest go into car pooling and take the bus. The thing is $6 is not the end. It is only a point from which gas will go even higher. At $15 gas and diesel even the buses stop running and the economy sinks into a true depression. When gas moves higher than that then we get a wholesale collapse of civilization. I think this will happen between now and 2012 at the latest.
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 2:52 am Post subject: Re: CBS News predicts $6+ US gasoline within a few months
I still don't see any carpooling around here.
All I see are lines of cars, trucks, and SUVs with one unhappy looking driver.
So 4$ gas has not gotten the message across yet.
I think that a large majority of the DSEs think that "gas will come back down", and so are hesitating to make permanent changes to their routine.
I have yet to hear one story or see one ad concerning car pooling in my area.
You'd think at least a few people would now be posting looking for a partner or two or three to share the ride. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 6:43 am Post subject: Re: CBS News predicts $6+ US gasoline within a few months
Come back to earth.
At $4.00 demand destruction begins. At $5.00 people start making drastic changes. Right now Asian countries are experiences rapidly increasing inflation (see Weldon's Money Monitor). That's going to lessen demand. Even the producing nations who still subsidize gas to the masses are rationing demand (Iran). Other producing nations are seeing higher and higher prices not only for gasoline but food and commodities as well (Algeria, for example, I know first hand).
Inflation, scarce resources and depreciating currencies the world over need to factored into the price of energy we all use. Before gas ever reaches $15.00 a gallon here, too many world events may produce a world we hardly recognize. _________________ Who is John Galt?
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 8:14 am Post subject: Re: CBS News predicts $6+ US gasoline within a few months
$8 gas will hardly make a effect, gas is $11 in the uk and people live fine $8 gas will just get rid of some of the fat second cars ect. I know the uk is alot smaller but its not that small, people in new york dont commute to l.a. If people live within 60 miles of where they work they will be fine. But however it will take alot of money out of the economy and will cause a short term recession maybe. $12 dollar gas would complete deystroy the economy i.e
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 8:20 am Post subject: Re: CBS News predicts $6+ US gasoline within a few months
"Think about this- at $7 per gallon, it would cost $210 to fill up a 30 gallon SUV or truck fuel tank. And a once a week fill up would cost a total of $840 per month!"
This is very funny--all those people who bought these monsters to demonstrate just how little they cared about GW or about crushing to death are now suffering at the gas pump.
It is a bit hard to feel too bad for them.
On the other hand, poor folks are getting crushed by these increases.
Joined: May 18, 2006 Posts: 4867 Location: Minneapolis, MN
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 8:29 am Post subject: Re: CBS News predicts $6+ US gasoline within a few months
charliehelyes wrote:
$8 gas will hardly make a effect, gas is $11 in the uk and people live fine $8 gas will just get rid of some of the fat second cars ect. I know the uk is alot smaller but its not that small, people in new york dont commute to l.a. If people live within 60 miles of where they work they will be fine. But however it will take alot of money out of the economy and will cause a short term recession maybe. $12 dollar gas would complete deystroy the economy i.e
$8 gas will hardly make a effect
but
$12 dollar gas would complete deystroy the economy
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 8:49 am Post subject: Re: CBS News predicts $6+ US gasoline within a few months
I live in a small town that is about 90 miles from the nearest real city. There are a couple of "cities" in the 40,000 population range within about 45 miles though.
Here $4 gas has the price on gas on everyone's mind already. MANY people are already planning their driving to eliminate those 1 item trips and to make each trip count. I've heard reports already that people who live "out in the country" and also work out there, as opposed to working in town, are cutting back to one trip to town per week if they possibly can. They are doing things like making sure all doctor appointments are on the same day, grocery list is made out, so that they can do it all in one day.
As it is I believe that $4 gas is already bleeding a decent portion of the country dry. $5 gas will cause many of them to have to considerforce significant structural changes to the way they live their lives, i.e. bicycles, walking, or motorcycles (if they can afford one).
I am fortunate enough to live within 1 mile of work. Obviously many people are not that fortunate.
Joined: Jun 18, 2005 Posts: 3985 Location: In a van down by the river
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 8:53 am Post subject: Re: CBS News predicts $6+ US gasoline within a few months
Our friends in Europe and the UK need to realize that the US, has a terrible public transportation system.
If you live in a town in the UK you can walk to the shops if you want and your are only going to have to walk a few blocks. IN most parts of the US if you want to walk up to the store you are going to have to travel a mile or more. And instead of walking on the side walk, you will have to walk on the street with cars doing 45+ MPH.
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 9:23 am Post subject: Re: CBS News predicts $6+ US gasoline within a few months
To pay for $4 gas, $130 oil, the US has to spend $745 billion per year on foreign oil. The US no longer has $745 billion per year for financing our oil addiction. Our bond markets have collapsed, our credit markets are terminal and the $ is plunging to the bottom. Soon those ships carrying foreign oil will not be coming to US shores very often. They will not be coming because we will not have the money to pay for what they will be carrying.
Face it, as a nation the US is flat out, pathetically, broke. $7 gas or $325 oil is a fantasy. There is not enough money on the planet to pay for $7 US gas at the US’s present rate of consumption. We can no longer beg, borrow or steal enough money to buy it.
The only way $7 gas could appear, would be if the US fell into an unprecedented deep depression. If a depression that severe comes about, $7 gas is going to be the last of your concerns.
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