Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1976 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 4:28 am Post subject: IEA OMR for May 08
The figures for May production have been released by the IEA.
The summary says oil production rose by 490 kbpd in May. However, this follows a sharp downward revision for April and for the first quarter. The implied revised estimate for April is 86.1 (from 86.8). No figures were given for the first quarter but eyeballing the chart on the front page of the web site appears to show an average of 87.0 mbpd, down from the last 87.23 estimate (itself down from the initial 87.33 estimate).
OECD oil stocks were down over 11 million barrels, in April. This is in contrast to the norm.
which is full of the usual crap speak but this sentence just makes me laugh:
"The lull in oil demand growth, however, may only be temporary as strong economic growth remains the key driving force," the IEA said
DUH. How can the economy GROW with out raising demand for oil???
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1976 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 4:54 am Post subject: Re: IEA OMR for May 08
virgincrude wrote:
How can the economy GROW with out raising demand for oil???
Exactly. It can't. At least not in the short term (or the long term). With IEA estimates on a downward revision curve, I don't know where they think this extra oil is coming from.
From their revisions, it looks like the world lost 21 million barrels in the first quarter, and a further 21 million barrels in April alone. That's a total of 42 million barrels less than the IEA's last estimate.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5885 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 5:30 am Post subject: Re: IEA OMR for May 08
Apparently there is another downward revision in yearly supply estimates, and yes, supply is dropping faster than demand.
Note that the IEA thinks commercial inventories are down so low that government intervention may be needed:
Quote:
The IEA lowered its projections for supply from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries this year by 300,000 barrels a day to 50.04 million barrels a day.
OPEC, which supplies more than 40 percent of the world's oil, will need to provide about 31.6 million barrels a day this year to compensate, the report said. That's about 300,000 barrels a day more than the IEA anticipated last month.
The group pumped 32.31 million barrels a day last month, 40,000 a day more than in April, according to the report.
...
The IEA said it's considering a release of its strategic stockpiles because near-maximum OPEC output has failed to check rallying prices.
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1976 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 9:08 pm Post subject: Re: IEA OMR for May 08
Mmm, strange goings on.
After posting that the graph on the front of the public OMR site, at the IEA, was showing a 1Q08 production average of 87.0, today's image shows it at slightly above 87.0 (maybe 87.05). Not a lot of change but I wonder how that happened. They referred to "extensive downward revisions" in the first quarter figures. Can a less than 200kbpd downward revision (previous estimate was 87.23) be regarded as "extensive"?
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