Oil's energy contribution has declined by about 12% since 1999. The world's economies have also declined by about 12%. (Using conventional metrics, which are time delayed determinations, this will only be seen in hind sight). The massive destruction of asset values now occurring testifies to it happening.
Peak is well behind us, world economies have peaked and will continue to decline.
Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 1:35 pm Post subject: Re: SHTF IN YOUR LOCALITY
biofuel13 wrote:
JJ wrote:
went to wallyworld day before yesterday and got two (more) 25 pound sacks of jasmin rice (10.99). Wife came home with 50 dollars yesterday and said don't you think we ought to go buy some more food. Told her "no, we have so much and it needs to rotate out..." Her friend called last night from wallyworld and said the same bag of rice was now 16.99.
Frito Lay vendor said today that they are having a potatoe shortage.
Everything in produce went up this morning (15 pound bag russets 6.49 from 4.29, etc.) (Wed. is price change day in the grocery business)
what is your location?
Burnet, Texas (wallyworld is in Marble Falls, Texas 13 miles south)
Joined: Jul 21, 2004 Posts: 1333 Location: Suburban tar sands
Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 9:59 pm Post subject: Re: SHTF IN YOUR LOCALITY
Madpaddy wrote:
Anyway, things are sinking quite quickly here in Ireland but of course we still have a long way to go before we are even as badly off as we were in the late 1980's.
I was there in the early 70's. It was like a third world country.
How does the median income in Ireland today compare to the USA at current exchange rates? I calculated that Ireland is higher.
Posted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 12:19 am Post subject: Re: SHTF IN YOUR LOCALITY
Funny thing Keith,
Ireland still has the public services and infrastructure of a third world country but the average industrial wage is about $48,000 US. Most people are doing quite well but woe betide you if you have to attend a hospital unless you are one of the filthy rich who can attend a private clinic. Also everything is much more and I mean much more expensive than the US. For example cars are approximately half the price in the US. _________________ www.askaboutenergy.com
Posted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 12:48 am Post subject: Re: SHTF IN YOUR LOCALITY
Well, here in Spain we are having a real taste of it. Maybe the SHTF has not happened yet, but I can already smell it. Shortages of food, no gas at gas stations... It's just a strike, but a Peak Oil strike. And more are to follow. There is another thread about it.
Posted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 1:48 am Post subject: Re: SHTF IN YOUR LOCALITY
Everything's normal here in the Seattle area. People still stuffing their pieholes with "All you can eat" buffets. Lots of obese waddlers to the Baskin Robbins. Hey 30+ flavors!
Posted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 7:24 am Post subject: Re: SHTF IN YOUR LOCALITY
I replied to an ad on Craigslist for a near perfect Sears "Progress" wood/coal cookstove for $300. I asked the guy to measure it to be sure it would fit. He called back, but said he'd had many calls for it, and when he went to where it was stored to measure it, some fellow handed him the money, so it's sold.
He told me all the callers were telling him they wanted it to USE, do to the rising cost of energy. Historically, these stoves have sold only as antiques. He was flabbergasted. We talked a while about PO. Although he had not heard the term, he had the idea. He expects major problems, especially for what he called "nickel millionaires", those who buy everything on credit.
He had to remove the ad quickly, because he was "Overrun with calls". Some of the sheeple are waking up. _________________ Local fix-it guy..
Joined: Feb 01, 2006 Posts: 510 Location: Northern US
Posted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 8:18 am Post subject: Re: SHTF IN YOUR LOCALITY
Nothing hitting the fan here. Went for a haircut the other day, next to me at the light was a Hummer strech limo filled with women. It had to be 30' long.
Most of the vehicles driving past our place are either trucks or SUV's, and several are towing boats.
Of course, the poor folks just aren't driving I guess. _________________ "...the problem is today we have unknown unknowns."
Dominique Strauss-Kahn; IMF chief
Joined: Jun 12, 2008 Posts: 5 Location: Midland/Odessa Texas
Posted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 8:37 am Post subject: Re: SHTF IN YOUR LOCALITY
No SHTF here either. In fact this area is booming due to the high price of oil. There is much more traffic on the roads than there was a few years ago. I see many more new luxury cars than before and the 1980's style big 4x4s with the lift kits and large tires seem to be popular again.
I have a lake property about 100 miles away and I go down there on weekends. The highway is not congested but has a steady flow. I still see many RVs, skiboats, and jet skis.
Locally, everthing is busy. There is a real problem with getting enough workers. Housing is a problem as well. We cannot build new houses and apartments fast enough to keep up with demand.
Posted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 8:48 am Post subject: Re: SHTF IN YOUR LOCALITY
Midessa wrote:
No SHTF here either. In fact this area is booming due to the high price of oil. There is much more traffic on the roads than there was a few years ago. I see many more new luxury cars than before and the 1980's style big 4x4s with the lift kits and large tires seem to be popular again.
I have a lake property about 100 miles away and I go down there on weekends. The highway is not congested but has a steady flow. I still see many RVs, skiboats, and jet skis.
Locally, everthing is busy. There is a real problem with getting enough workers. Housing is a problem as well. We cannot build new houses and apartments fast enough to keep up with demand.
I would say that you are experiencing a mini Export Land Model in your area due to the industry of oil and gas extraction.
Midland-Odessa economy _________________ It's a cold cold world when a man has to pawn his shoes.
Posted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 10:15 am Post subject: Re: SHTF IN YOUR LOCALITY
topcat wrote:
Nothing hitting the fan here. Went for a haircut the other day, next to me at the light was a Hummer strech limo filled with women. It had to be 30' long.
Most of the vehicles driving past our place are either trucks or SUV's, and several are towing boats.
Of course, the poor folks just aren't driving I guess.
Posted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 10:16 am Post subject: Re: SHTF IN YOUR LOCALITY
Midessa wrote:
No SHTF here either. In fact this area is booming due to the high price of oil. There is much more traffic on the roads than there was a few years ago. I see many more new luxury cars than before and the 1980's style big 4x4s with the lift kits and large tires seem to be popular again.
I have a lake property about 100 miles away and I go down there on weekends. The highway is not congested but has a steady flow. I still see many RVs, skiboats, and jet skis.
Locally, everthing is busy. There is a real problem with getting enough workers. Housing is a problem as well. We cannot build new houses and apartments fast enough to keep up with demand.
Joined: Jun 12, 2008 Posts: 5 Location: Midland/Odessa Texas
Posted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 10:34 am Post subject: Re: SHTF IN YOUR LOCALITY
Serial_Worrier wrote:
Midessa wrote:
No SHTF here either. In fact this area is booming due to the high price of oil. There is much more traffic on the roads than there was a few years ago. I see many more new luxury cars than before and the 1980's style big 4x4s with the lift kits and large tires seem to be popular again.
I have a lake property about 100 miles away and I go down there on weekends. The highway is not congested but has a steady flow. I still see many RVs, skiboats, and jet skis.
Locally, everthing is busy. There is a real problem with getting enough workers. Housing is a problem as well. We cannot build new houses and apartments fast enough to keep up with demand.
Endless prosperity. Viva la Reagan/Bush!
I wish. I have lived through two oil busts in the area so I do not in a any way believe that prosperity is endless. I was just reporting my oberservations on the ground as of right now. The national economy is in recession right now, so SHTF type reports should not be surprising, but if the SHTF in a place like Midland/Odessa that should be benefitting from high oil prices then we have a problem.
Posted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 11:39 am Post subject: Re: SHTF IN YOUR LOCALITY
Midessa wrote:
Serial_Worrier wrote:
Midessa wrote:
No SHTF here either. In fact this area is booming due to the high price of oil. There is much more traffic on the roads than there was a few years ago. I see many more new luxury cars than before and the 1980's style big 4x4s with the lift kits and large tires seem to be popular again.
I have a lake property about 100 miles away and I go down there on weekends. The highway is not congested but has a steady flow. I still see many RVs, skiboats, and jet skis.
Locally, everthing is busy. There is a real problem with getting enough workers. Housing is a problem as well. We cannot build new houses and apartments fast enough to keep up with demand.
Endless prosperity. Viva la Reagan/Bush!
I wish. I have lived through two oil busts in the area so I do not in a any way believe that prosperity is endless. I was just reporting my oberservations on the ground as of right now. The national economy is in recession right now, so SHTF type reports should not be surprising, but if the SHTF in a place like Midland/Odessa that should be benefitting from high oil prices then we have a problem.
It's amazing how people already forget the malaise period(1979-1982). It was MUCH worse back then with stagflation, long lines for gas, scary Soviet Union, etc...
Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 7:08 am Post subject: Re: SHTF IN YOUR LOCALITY
On Wednesday I spent about 10 hours driving around central and western New York state for my job. I didn't have to pay for the gas, it was a GORGEOUS day and I drove through a lot of beautiful country. I made a point to really enjoy it since who knows how much longer doing such a thing will even be possible.
Anywayyyy, the main point of this post is that I covered a lot of territory. In my travels I saw at least half a dozen gas stations that had closed recently. You could get a really close approximation of when they actually closed based on the prices that were still left up on their signs. Most of these were in somewhat rural areas, sometimes the only one in town. I think the places farthest from major transport corridors will be the first to see shortages.
For my age I'm pretty far ahead of the curve on preparedness, but its still hard to cope with the sense of impending doom. I feel like a skydiver who's main chute just failed to open. Praying the backup works....
Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 10:41 am Post subject: Re: SHTF IN YOUR LOCALITY
Traffic, commercial and industrial growth has been growing at a steady pace in my area of Upstate New York. Plenty of luxry cars, full sized trucks, SUVs, boats, waverunners, campers, tour buses etc on the roads and in the tourist areas. More people from Canada are visiting the Lake George, Saratoga region and some local residents are vacationing and taking day-trips locally.
Low income households are driving less often, driving fewer miles and they're being priced out of many areas.
Quote:
On Wednesday I spent about 10 hours driving around central and western New York state for my job. I didn't have to pay for the gas, it was a GORGEOUS day and I drove through a lot of beautiful country. I made a point to really enjoy it since who knows how much longer doing such a thing will even be possible.
Years ago I traveled all over New York while doing commercial maintenance, sign work, billboard work, and commercial lighting work in the Catskills, Hudson Valley, Finger Lakes, Mohawk River Valley, Adirondack Region, Great Lakes Region etc. On bright sunny days it was almost hard to believe I was being paid such good money for driving through such beautiful country. I've always boated and fished in the Adirondack Region, so I used to haul my boat on some jobs since we'd boat or fish on Lake Ontario or one of the Finger Lakes for a change of pace.
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