Oil's energy contribution has declined by about 12% since 1999. The world's economies have also declined by about 12%. (Using conventional metrics, which are time delayed determinations, this will only be seen in hind sight). The massive destruction of asset values now occurring testifies to it happening.
Peak is well behind us, world economies have peaked and will continue to decline.
Joined: Apr 04, 2005 Posts: 473 Location: Seattle, WA
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 1:26 pm Post subject: Re: Demand for large SUV's has collapsed; owners can't sell
Specop_007 wrote:
Twilight wrote:
Quote:
Most people who buy a new car or truck don't think they are making a risky bet on the commodity futures market. But they are in fact dumbasses. Just ask someone who's trying to unload a large sport-utility vehicle purchased in the last two or three years.
My addition bolded.
Most SUVs never see the country. You can always tell who needs one. They are the people with a tow ball, winch and roof rack. They are not even 1% of what I see on the road. Everyone else just wanted one, and while I have no moral criticism, from a personal finance standpoint most of them bet wrong. They will just have to take the loss, adapt and overcome.
I'm impressed!! Someone got it!!
Yeah, I see a lot of big people movers with no roof rack, no tow hitch, no brush guard or winch.
I think why?? Why do you have that thing if you dont need to use it? Well, not my business. Just dont bitch about the gas prices, thats all I ask.
Joined: Apr 04, 2005 Posts: 473 Location: Seattle, WA
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 1:26 pm Post subject: Re: Demand for large SUV's has collapsed; owners can't sell
joelcolorado wrote:
I dont feel sorry for anyone who bought them. THey sure flaunted them around when I was driving my small car and made fun of me for not having one. I can HAVE whatever I want to buy. I chose to NOT spend that much on a vehicle.
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 1:33 pm Post subject: Re: Demand for large SUV's has collapsed; owners can't sell
joeltrout wrote:
It also pays to stay out of debt and living in your means which means not buying an SUV unless you can afford it.
Agreed. Which is ironic, because I took so much heat about renting the past 2 years. I knew that a correction was due in the housing market, so I bid my time, stayed stingy and continued to pad my savings.
The truck is strictly for recreation, home improvement chores, and (possibly) snow removal income in the Winter. I use public transportation and my own two feet to get around 90% of the time. Otherwise, my wife and I putz around in Ikkus, our 99 Altima, from time to time.
Joined: Sep 29, 2005 Posts: 456 Location: I heard we are not the real America..Eugene, Oregon.
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 2:09 pm Post subject: Re: Demand for large SUV's has collapsed; owners can't sell
Going by one of the many many many use car lots the other day, I spotted a lot 3/4 full of trucks and SUV's. One of these vehicles caught my eye...A Soccer Mom's dream....a spotless Suburban w/ new rims, dark windows, new tires, etc....4500.00. I also saw two Hummers on the same lot. Glad I did not by into the SUV dream!
catbox _________________ Punk is not really a style of music. It was more like a state of mind.
-Mike Watt
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 2053 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 4:14 pm Post subject: Re: Demand for large SUV's has collapsed; owners can't sell
yesplease wrote:
I ain't better off, so a person isn't better off always renting.
I don't think the suggestion was always renting for any type of personal motoring, only for the special use that doesn't fit your normal motoring use.
yesplease wrote:
Insuring, maintaining, registering and paying taxes are all expenses and IME worth it compared to renting. Insurance is done on a month by month basis, and if I ain't usin' it that month, it ain't insured.
I'm not sure what you're saying here. I know it's possible to get insurance on a monthly basis but (from my experience in the UK and NZ) that has to be arranged in advance and is a one off. I'm not aware of insurance cover that can be set up to be activated and deactivated on a month by month basis. However, even a month by month basis means you'd have to avoid use for the month your insurance wasn't active, even if you needed to use it. Unless the insurance can be activated or deactivated on an hourly basis. Maybe this is a way for motor insurance companies to go but I don't think many, or any, do this at the moment.
yesplease wrote:
Registration is really the only fee that's pointless to go w/o, but at ~$40 it's no biggie.
Registration in NZ is a lot more than that (about NZ$250 per year). The UK road tax may be going up to 1,000 UK pounds for some SUVs.
yesplease wrote:
Maintaining something also costs money, but at ~2,000 miles/year that's ~$100, most of which is for smog.
Not everyone follows manufacturers' recommendations but maintenance is recommended on a time frame, as well as mileage. I would expect the maintenance required, in any case, to not go down in direct proportion to a mileage decrease.
yesplease wrote:
IMO/E it not only is cheaper, but far less hassle.
In comparison to renting, maybe, depending on where you live and how easy it is to pick up the right rental. But IMO the cost would be more and the hassle may be more, too. You'll have more money sunk into the vehicles than you'll save. You'll have depreciation hits and the extra running expenses mentioned (hourly insurance notwithstanding). I also doubt it would be far less hassle. You'll need to arrange the insurance, car tax and servicing on more vehicles. You'll need to find parking space for more vehicles, with easy access to avoid the hassle of shifting vehicles around. You'll also need to keep several sets of keys, to hand. If you've got kids, you either have to duplicate kid seats or shift them around. If you like to keep the cars clean, that's more work. There'll probably be slightly more trips to the filling station too.
For me, renting would be impractical (there isn't a rental place closer than 15 miles, at least, and very poor public transport) but keeping cars for specialised use would be a extra expense and a lot of hassle.
Joined: Nov 06, 2007 Posts: 759 Location: Illinois
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 5:07 pm Post subject: Re: Demand for large SUV's has collapsed; owners can't sell
Twilight wrote:
But they are in fact dumbasses. Most SUVs never see the country. You can always tell who needs one. They are the people with a tow ball, winch and roof rack. They are not even 1% of what I see on the road. Everyone else just wanted one, and while I have no moral criticism, from a personal finance standpoint most of them bet wrong. They will just have to take the loss, adapt and overcome.
I have no love for SUV's, but I think you need to look at some of the reasons the SUV and other light trucks became popular. Back when the gas guzzling tax was established in 1978, there was an exemption made for light trucks. Thus if automakers sold more light trucks, they could avoid paying billions of dollars in additional taxes. This encouraged them to spend millions of dollars marketing these light trucks. Convincing people they "needed" it for whatever BS reasons they came up with. So instead of the small 1% of drivers who actually needed these vehicles before, you have everyday drivers starting to buy them. All because of a gas guzzler loophole and some auto manufacturers desire to avoid extra taxes. After decades of marketing BS, people are now convinced they need an SUV(not talking about the small 1%'ers out there). Only high gas prices are finally waking people up to the reality that maybe they don't need it after all.
Gas Guzzler Loophole Fuel Economy Fraud _________________ The oil barrel is half-full.
Joined: Nov 06, 2007 Posts: 759 Location: Illinois
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 5:35 pm Post subject: Re: Demand for large SUV's has collapsed; owners can't sell
I would have thought a 4WD vehicle would resonate better with ultra doomers. If you are anticipating a break down in civil services like snow plowing, road maintenance, etc., and/or living in a bunker out in the boonies, would not a 4WD vehicle make the most sense? _________________ The oil barrel is half-full.
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 8:20 pm Post subject: Re: Demand for large SUV's has collapsed; owners can't sell
kublikhan wrote:
I would have thought a 4WD vehicle would resonate better with ultra doomers. If you are anticipating a break down in civil services like snow plowing, road maintenance, etc., and/or living in a bunker out in the boonies, would not a 4WD vehicle make the most sense?
I think if (correction when) government reaches the point they can NO longer maintain the freeways, society will be so far down the economic ladder, Joe Sixpack wouldn't even be able to afford a truck / SUV anyways. If it costs more than $10K, it will be out of the reach of the common man. I don't see 4WD vehicles having too much of a future, with the exception of doing real work,...at least that's the "cube scenario"
Joined: Apr 04, 2005 Posts: 473 Location: Seattle, WA
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 9:19 pm Post subject: Re: Demand for large SUV's has collapsed; owners can't sell
cube wrote:
kublikhan wrote:
I would have thought a 4WD vehicle would resonate better with ultra doomers. If you are anticipating a break down in civil services like snow plowing, road maintenance, etc., and/or living in a bunker out in the boonies, would not a 4WD vehicle make the most sense?
I think if (correction when) government reaches the point they can NO longer maintain the freeways, society will be so far down the economic ladder, Joe Sixpack wouldn't even be able to afford a truck / SUV anyways. If it costs more than $10K, it will be out of the reach of the common man. I don't see 4WD vehicles having too much of a future, with the exception of doing real work,...at least that's the "cube scenario"
I don't know about you guys, but I often play the "if I won the lottery" mind game when I feel like thinking about trivial stuff that ain't going to happen....Like what would I buy to be ultimately prepared for total doomage?
160 acres?
near a river?
20,000 gallons of fuel stored on your property?
underground home?
how far would you go?
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 11:08 pm Post subject: Re: Demand for large SUV's has collapsed; owners can't sell
Well, this is interesting.
Thought it would take a little longer for the fad to break, about 4 years when gas prices get to about $8 to $10/gallon in the states.
Unlike many people, I do cast moral aspersions on the belligerant bullying jerks who use the suburban asualt vehicles, which are far too much for one person.
The car companies produced these vehicles with the intent of avoiding fuel efficiency and pollution controls by classifying the vehicles as trucks rather than cars.
Joined: May 13, 2007 Posts: 656 Location: Athabasca, Alberta
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 11:20 pm Post subject: Re: Demand for large SUV's has collapsed; owners can't sell
We live in a rural area, and have always bought trucks. Last one was a half ton purchased in 2001. Still have it and I intend to keep it until it craters. In the mean time we mainly drive our 2007 RAV4 which with a little hypermiling get about 28 to 30 MPG, double what the 1/2 ton gets. _________________ Appuis ait fabrum esse suae quemque fortunae.
Alias Redneck
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 11:27 pm Post subject: Re: Demand for large SUV's has collapsed; owners can't sell
TonyPrep wrote:
yesplease wrote:
I ain't better off, so a person isn't better off always renting.
I don't think the suggestion was always renting for any type of personal motoring, only for the special use that doesn't fit your normal motoring use.
Fer sure, and in that case a truck that I use very little still makes sense for me.
TonyPrep wrote:
yesplease wrote:
Insuring, maintaining, registering and paying taxes are all expenses and IME worth it compared to renting. Insurance is done on a month by month basis, and if I ain't usin' it that month, it ain't insured.
I'm not sure what you're saying here. I know it's possible to get insurance on a monthly basis but (from my experience in the UK and NZ) that has to be arranged in advance and is a one off. I'm not aware of insurance cover that can be set up to be activated and deactivated on a month by month basis. However, even a month by month basis means you'd have to avoid use for the month your insurance wasn't active, even if you needed to use it. Unless the insurance can be activated or deactivated on an hourly basis. Maybe this is a way for motor insurance companies to go but I don't think many, or any, do this at the moment.
It's not that I avoid use for the months it's not insured, just that I only insure it for the months I'm using it. All it takes is a phone call to my insurance company. That being said, it may also be possible to get insurance for less than a month through companies like esurance/etc, although at ~$25-30/month it probably isn't worth the hassle even if it is cheaper IMO.
TonyPrep wrote:
yesplease wrote:
Registration is really the only fee that's pointless to go w/o, but at ~$40 it's no biggie.
Registration in NZ is a lot more than that (about NZ$250 per year). The UK road tax may be going up to 1,000 UK pounds for some SUVs.
Ouch! I don't think I'd even own a vehicle if I lived there, and probably wouldn't have as much use for one either. It can be pricey here too, but only w/ newer vehicles. The older the cheaper, until it bottoms out at some price.
TonyPrep wrote:
yesplease wrote:
Maintaining something also costs money, but at ~2,000 miles/year that's ~$100, most of which is for smog.
Not everyone follows manufacturers' recommendations but maintenance is recommended on a time frame, as well as mileage. I would expect the maintenance required, in any case, to not go down in direct proportion to a mileage decrease.
It is based on time. $50/year covers all fluid changes (brake/coolant/oil) as well as filters(oil/air/fuel) and prorated consumables like batteries/tires.
TonyPrep wrote:
yesplease wrote:
IMO/E it not only is cheaper, but far less hassle.
In comparison to renting, maybe, depending on where you live and how easy it is to pick up the right rental. But IMO the cost would be more and the hassle may be more, too. You'll have more money sunk into the vehicles than you'll save. You'll have depreciation hits and the extra running expenses mentioned (hourly insurance notwithstanding). I also doubt it would be far less hassle. You'll need to arrange the insurance, car tax and servicing on more vehicles. You'll need to find parking space for more vehicles, with easy access to avoid the hassle of shifting vehicles around. You'll also need to keep several sets of keys, to hand. If you've got kids, you either have to duplicate kid seats or shift them around. If you like to keep the cars clean, that's more work. There'll probably be slightly more trips to the filling station too.
Lets see, in order, I have no cash sunk in my truck and it saves me ~$1000+/year compared to rentals. It's way past any depreciation hit and is more or less stable, maybe even appreciating w/ gas higher. Insurance/registration only takes ~20 minutes/year, and servicing is around a couple hours per year. Parking is no sweat since I have the room and duplicate keys take ~15 minutes once. I don't have kids and work trucks don't need to be cleaned much IMO. For a rental, I still have to fill it, so there's no advantage there. In short, unless I had a job that made me ~$300/hour, I don't think it'd be worthwhile going w/ a rental.
TonyPrep wrote:
For me, renting would be impractical (there isn't a rental place closer than 15 miles, at least, and very poor public transport) but keeping cars for specialised use would be a extra expense and a lot of hassle.
I don't think I'd have even one given your taxation. As always, YMMV. For me it's a win-win situation, but it ain't for everyone. _________________
Joined: Aug 03, 2007 Posts: 4608 Location: Boston Suburbs
Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 1:16 am Post subject: Re: Demand for large SUV's has collapsed; owners can't sell
arretium wrote:
160 acres?
near a river?
20,000 gallons of fuel stored on your property?
underground home?
how far would you go?
A nuclear submarine ala Captain Nemo's Nautilus and a secret base on a remote island with plenty of provisions and spare parts. Something like that would probably get you through WWIII intact.
Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 12:43 pm Post subject: Re: Demand for large SUV's has collapsed; owners can't sell
Survivalist dont GET IT. If things get that bad, gangs will come and take your crap. If you think you can hold out, you are a fool. You will be burned out. Trust me, you cannot stand off a large assault by yourself. Its just foolishness.
If you have chickens and goats and cows, they will come take those too. Its just human nature.
kk
Joined: May 07, 2008 Posts: 461 Location: Chaska, MN
Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 1:54 pm Post subject: Re: Demand for large SUV's has collapsed; owners can't sell
joelcolorado wrote:
Survivalist dont GET IT. If things get that bad, gangs will come and take your crap. If you think you can hold out, you are a fool. You will be burned out. Trust me, you cannot stand off a large assault by yourself. Its just foolishness.
If you have chickens and goats and cows, they will come take those too. Its just human nature.
kk
So what is your plan then? When THSTF you just plan on laying down and dying? Throwing yourself off a bridge?
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