Oil's energy contribution has declined by about 12% since 1999. The world's economies have also declined by about 12%. (Using conventional metrics, which are time delayed determinations, this will only be seen in hind sight). The massive destruction of asset values now occurring testifies to it happening.
Peak is well behind us, world economies have peaked and will continue to decline.
Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 7:33 pm Post subject: Natural rubber prices skyrocket
My first question on this board, a few years ago, was one about what would happen to natural rubber prices once peak oil sets in. The obvious answer was that these prices would first rise spectacularly, then collapse because nobody would be manufacturing any cars any longer.
Guess what, since 2005, natural rubber prices have increased by 150 percent!!!
Yesterday an all time record of US$ 3365 per ton for SMR CV rubber, was set.
Rubber may look like a funny topic, but it is a bit of a "strategic" resource, because there are very few economically viable alternatives to latex. No real advances in polymer science are being made, not fast enough to displace rubber in any case.
So assuming that we won't see a mass transition to massively well organised mass transit, anywhere soon, we will need cars with tires and bikes with tires. This means natural rubber. Tires are never recycled into tires.
Thailand, the world's largest producer, saw 2.5 million hectares of new rubber forests added in the past 5 years to anticipate the demand growth in Asia. But obviously, even this large addition cannot push down prices, which are intimately linked to oil prices.
Add to this that there is a severe danger in Indonesia, the second largest producer, which hasn't been replanting, and which has a high ratio of old to new trees. This factor alone could add much to the price over the coming years.
We are facing a rubber crisis!! _________________ The Beginning is Near!
Posted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 3:32 am Post subject: Re: Natural rubber prices skyrocket
There is another similarity. Back in the 90's the economics were terrible for rubber. People were converting their plantations to palm oil to make more money per hectare, plus palm oil is less labor-intense to harvest. As recently as 2003, it was just about breakeven as to whether to plant rubber or palm.
So no new capacity was added for many years. in Malaysia, capacity actually declined substantially during that time. The trees are quite good wood for furniture.
When the growth in China started, in about 2003, of course the price exploded at that time, and now, has obviously gotten out of hand.
Similarly, it takes about 7 years for a rubber tree to come to maturity, so even if you went out and planted today, it would be awhile before the new capacity hit the marketplace.
You can tease all you want about the products of this miraculous plant, but there are some applications where its unique properties are irreplaceable.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3626 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 7:57 am Post subject: Re: Natural rubber prices skyrocket
I remember reading about some method of synthesizing rubber as a byproduct of biofuel production; wagging the dog since biofuels corrode rubber in the first place. You know anything about that, lorenzo? The former, that is; I'm sure you'll have studies on tap about the myth of corrosive biofuel. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 8:35 pm Post subject: Re: Natural rubber prices skyrocket
TheDude wrote:
I remember reading about some method of synthesizing rubber as a byproduct of biofuel production; wagging the dog since biofuels corrode rubber in the first place. You know anything about that, lorenzo? The former, that is; I'm sure you'll have studies on tap about the myth of corrosive biofuel.
TheDude, as you know, I am world famous for embodying Reason to the extreme.
I do not deny the corrosivity of ethanol or biodiesel, on the contrary.
But I can't help it either that the strongest type of fuel line capable of dealing with it, happens to be made of.... bioplastic.
More specifically, a polymer made from castor oil, known as Rilsan.
Here:
Quote:
December 13, 2006
The bioeconomy at work: bioplastic fuel lines to handle aggressive biodiesel
French specialty industrial chemicals group Arkema announces [*French] that its bio-based Rilsan PA11 polyamide (to which we referred earlier) has been approved by several automotive contractors for biodiesel fuel lines in Europe and Brazil. Rilsan PA11 indeed features superior ageing resistance to biodiesel at high temperature. The entirely renewable high performance bioplastic is derived from castor seeds.
Today’s increasing use of biofuels has led Arkema to develop a new Rilsan grade, "M-BESN Noir P210TL", specifically for biodiesel. Biofuels are in fact much more aggressive than traditional crude oil based fuels. Arkema’s Rilsan biodiesel grade benefits from the inherent properties of polyamide 11 that ensure superior performance compared to polyamide 12, in particular with its outstanding chemical and mechanical ageing resistance at high temperature in the presence of pure biodiesel.
Arkema has been renowned for many years for its specific polyamide grades for fuel lines in diesel cars. Rilsan PA11 BESN Noir P20TL is now the reference material for diesel fuel lines thanks to its outstanding resistance to high temperatures in the under-hood environment of vehicles. Used instead of rubber and metal assemblies, Rilsan also enables significant cost savings.
In addition, biobased Rilsan PA11 can be combined with conductive Rilsan PA11 -- also made from ricin -- whenever electrical conductivity complying with Standard SAE J1645 is required (Rilperm 2101 multi-layer fuel line technology).
By adapting its product range to the requirements of carmakers, Arkema aims to strengthen its position as a dedicated high-performance polyamide supplier to the automotive industry.
Arkema is committed to sustainable development by developing and marketing products for today’s generations, and not at the expense of tomorrow’s generations. The use of renewable source fuels such as biodiesel and flexfuel combined with the use of biobased Rilsan PA11 can significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
April 18, 2007
The bioeconomy at work: robust bioplastic used for off-shore oil riser pipes
Bioplastics are often discussed in the context of mass produced consumer products, like plastic bags, bottles or cell phones. Their biodegradability is a major advantage over petroleum-based plastics, but this property gives the bio-based alternatives an image of fragility. From a deep sea off-shore oil field located 135km off the coast of Angola now comes a very different image: that of durable, high strength, very robust polymers made from crops used in the very rough environment of deep-sea oil extraction.
Innovative French firm Arkema announces that its 100% plant based high performance Rilsan 11 plastic is being used for flexible pipes raising the oil from Dalia, the deep offshore field operated by Total. The pipes were designed and manufactured by Technip from the green polyamide because its temperature resistance, strength and chemical properties are superior to oil-based alternatives.
The vast Dalia oilfield, one of the biggest deep offshore developments and a new benchmark in technological innovation, is located 135 km off the Angolan coast, and covers an area in excess of 200 km2 at a depth of between 1200 and 1500 m (4000-5000ft). The development of the field, which has outstanding characteristics, has called upon specific know-how and technological innovation.
The only material to have proved reliable following 25 years’ service in offshore oil production, Arkema’s Rilsan 11 was chosen by Technip for the manufacture of these risers using new IPB (integrated production bundle) technology. These 1,650 m long flexible pipes bring up the fluid from the bottom to the production and storage floating unit on the surface (see image, click to enlarge). They include for the first time multiple functions for production, activation and safety of offshore production.
According to Total's Dalia project presentation "the eight flexible risers that take the fluid up to the surface facilities are the project’s key innovation. Their size pushes the envelope of integrated production bundle (IPB) technology. Gas lift tubes and trace heating cables are wound around the 12-inch flexible pipe core, which is protected by ten layers of insulation and overwrapped by carcasses to ensure the mechanical strength of the risers, which are 1,650 meters long and weigh 800 metric tons."
The remarkable properties of Rilsan 11 ensure unprecedended levels of performance for submarine pipes: temperature resistance greater by 10°C than for competitive materials, double lifetime in a given environment, and optimized mechanical properties.
Plant based polymer
What's more, the polymer is entirely made from renewable castor oil, derived from seeds of Ricin communis [see the Handbook of Energy crops], a crop grown widely in the subtropics and the tropics.
Arkema sources its castor oil from South America, India, South-East Asia and China, where the shrub is grown in semi-arid regions on wastelands. The castor oil plant is a fast-growing, suckering perennial shrub, part of the Euphorbiaceae family (to which Jatropha curcas belongs) which can reach the size of a small tree (around 12 m) and requires limited amounts of inputs. Castor oil plants yield some 1,200 to 2,000 liters of oil per hectare.
The oil derived from its seeds has over 1000 patented industrial applications and is used in the following industries: automobile, aviation, cosmetics, electrical, electronics, manufacturing, pharmaceutical, plastics, and telecommunications. The following is a brief list of castor oil uses in the above industries: adhesives, brake fluids, caulks, dyes, electrical liquid dielectrics, humectants, hydraulic fluids, inks, lacquers, leather treatments, lubricating greases, machining oils, paints, pigments, refrigeration lubricants, rubbers, sealants, textiles, washing powders, and waxes.
Castor oil's high lubricity is superior to petroleum-based lubricants; for instance, it really clings to metal, especially hot metal, and is used in racing and jet (turbine) engines. In addition, castor oil is non-toxic and quickly biodegrades; whereas, petroleum-based oils are potential health hazards, and take a very long time to biodegrade, thus can damage the environment when concentrate
Developed and improved by Arkema for two decades, the 100% renewable Rilsan 11 polymer has meanwhile found wide applications in a range of industries - automotive, oil & gas, pharmaceutical, consumer products, civil engineering and aviation - where it is used for fuel lines, fluid transfer lines (brake, clutch, cooling), quick connectors, fittings, fasteners and clips, pneumatic hoses, air lines, hydraulic hoses, electrical cable sheathing, oil tanks, air brake tubing for trucks, optical and copper cable sheathing, gas pipes and fittings, flexible liners and pipes for off- and onshore oil production (flow-lines, risers), and many more.
The bioplastic has excellent chemical properties and can also be used for fuel lines, storage tanks and pipelines to transport and store all biofuels (including the most corrosive like ethanol). It can be processed like any other plastic, via standard processes such as injection molding, extrusion, rotomolding or it can be fibre-reinforced.
But to answer your point: actually it is more efficient to use land to grow castor for bioplastics, than to use the same land to grow crops for first-gen biofuels. There's been some interesting research about this. Bioplastics are more efficient at offsetting carbon emissions and at replacing fossil fuels, than biofuels. _________________ The Beginning is Near!
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