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dorlomin
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Aug 05, 2007
Posts: 1061
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 Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 4:45 pm Post subject: Record Ice Loss in Arctic 2008 |
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| crap. This may be quick: Large sea area map |
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dorlomin
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Aug 05, 2007
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Dan1195
Heavy Crude
Joined: Mar 19, 2005
Posts: 255
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| Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 9:27 am Post subject: Re: Record ice loss in Arctic |
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| We are now at the critical time, as this is when the rapid melt began last year. |
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GregWatson
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Joined: Jun 07, 2008
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| Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 9:44 am Post subject: Re: Record ice loss in Arctic |
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Say "Good Bye" to the North polar ice cap: link
Greg |
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nero
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: May 22, 2004
Posts: 1422
Location: Ottawa, Ontario
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| Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 9:49 am Post subject: Re: Record ice loss in Arctic |
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| Quote: | | We are now at the critical time, as this is when the rapid melt began last year. |
It was a little later in the year when the rapid melt occured last year. What has been happening so far isn't out of the ordinary. What was extrordinary last year was the clear skies and melting in July that led to a vast area of the ocean north of Siberia going ice free in August.
I would like a better explanation of what is happening west of Banks Island, but so far that is the only area that looks to me like it is outside the norm for the time of year.
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dohboi
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Joined: Dec 05, 2005
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| Posted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 8:42 am Post subject: Re: Record ice loss in Arctic |
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| Good points, but I wonder if our sense of "norm" has drifted a bit as we have grown used to seeing ever less coverage at ever earlier times of year? |
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sjn
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Mar 09, 2005
Posts: 568
Location: UK
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| Posted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 9:12 am Post subject: Re: Record ice loss in Arctic |
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| nero wrote: | | Quote: | | We are now at the critical time, as this is when the rapid melt began last year. |
It was a little later in the year when the rapid melt occured last year. What has been happening so far isn't out of the ordinary. What was extrordinary last year was the clear skies and melting in July that led to a vast area of the ocean north of Siberia going ice free in August.
I would like a better explanation of what is happening west of Banks Island, but so far that is the only area that looks to me like it is outside the norm for the time of year. |
Artice Sea ice extent (large) I can't agree that what we are seeing isn't out of the ordinary. The difference last year was the deficit of winter coverage going into the melt season, this in turn led to more open sea, as you mentioned, triggering a positive feedback where more heat was absorbed leading to the record summer minimum. This year while starting with more initial coverage, the ice is qualatively different to the old multiseasonal ice which melted last year and we're now already ahead of where we were at this point last year.
It is true that the distribution of the ice is different to last year and that may yet make the difference you suggest, but wherever large areas of open sea appear the rate of melt in that region will accellerate and affect neighbouring regions. I suspect the pattern of melt this year will differ from last year but will be no less dramatic. |
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Bas
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Joined: Mar 26, 2005
Posts: 3757
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| Posted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 9:54 am Post subject: Re: Record ice loss in Arctic |
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| sjn wrote: | I can't agree that what we are seeing isn't out of the ordinary. The difference last year was the deficit of winter coverage going into the melt season, this in turn led to more open sea, as you mentioned, triggering a positive feedback where more heat was absorbed leading to the record summer minimum. This year while starting with more initial coverage, the ice is qualatively different to the old multiseasonal ice which melted last year and we're now already ahead of where we were at this point last year.
It is true that the distribution of the ice is different to last year and that may yet make the difference you suggest, but wherever large areas of open sea appear the rate of melt in that region will accellerate and affect neighbouring regions. I suspect the pattern of melt this year will differ from last year but will be no less dramatic. |
right now the year is as bad as last year, but last year it was June that seems to have made the difference. Personally I've been "waiting" for the better part of the year to see if the coming summer months would be better, worse or roughly the same as last year, expecting it to be worse, possibly catostrophic due to the positive feedbackloops and thinner than normal ice. Right now however, I don't know what to think and just watch the melt unfold, not unlike I watch the oil crisis unfold while I all but stopped researching alternatives and speculating about how the near to medium future will look like. It seems to me current events have caught up with almost everything we've talked about on this site for the past couple of years.
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Bas
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Joined: Mar 26, 2005
Posts: 3757
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| Posted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 10:00 am Post subject: Re: Record ice loss in Arctic |
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| Quote: | Most Experts Foresee a Repeat, at Least, of 2007 Arctic Ice Loss
Fourteen research teams studying the impacts of warming on the Arctic Ocean have issued independent projections of how the sea ice will behave this summer, and 11 of them foresee an ice retreat at least as extraordinary as last year’s or even more dramatic. The other three groups that issued a numerical estimate see the ice extent heading back toward, but not equaling, the average minimum for summers since satellites began tracking the comings and goings of Arctic sea ice in 1979. Five other groups chose not to issue a numerical estimate. |
dot earth blogs - NYTimes
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Troyboy1208
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Apr 26, 2006
Posts: 513
Location: Orlando FL
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| Posted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 12:20 pm Post subject: Re: Record ice loss in Arctic |
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Dont forget that graphic is about a week behind. So those images you posted are not even shown in the graph yet. We are almost halfway into June. That sharp drop is only the first few days in June. I will be interested to see what that graph looks like in seven days. Thanks for posting this at the top of the page where it is easily seen  |
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nero
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: May 22, 2004
Posts: 1422
Location: Ottawa, Ontario
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| Posted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 2:18 pm Post subject: Re: Record Ice Loss in Arctic 2008 |
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| sjn wrote: | | I can't agree that what we are seeing isn't out of the ordinary. The difference last year was the deficit of winter coverage going into the melt season, this in turn led to more open sea, as you mentioned, triggering a positive feedback where more heat was absorbed leading to the record summer minimum. This year while starting with more initial coverage, the ice is qualatively different to the old multiseasonal ice which melted last year and we're now already ahead of where we were at this point last year. |
I also believe the thinner ice gives the chance that we have another record year but it isn't a given. If we don't have the right sort of weather to have a quick early thaw on the arctic ocean that changes the albedo for the rest of the summer we may not have the same sort of ice melt. If we do, these two summers will be truly historic and I wouldn't expect the summer ice to ever truly recover.
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dorlomin
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Aug 05, 2007
Posts: 1061
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| Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 1:59 am Post subject: Re: Record Ice Loss in Arctic 2008 |
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An excellent article on a French expidition that went through the arctic from September 2006 till January this year.
New Scientist, unfortunately it is behind there premium service I have just got the print edition.
But two key points emerged one was the "frazzle", this is how the ice forms, its a layer about 30m below the arctic ice surface of still cold water where ice crystals form and then float up to join the ice pack, there was speculation that changes to the currents under the ice may make this formation more difficult.
The other point was that the boat moved twice as quick as anticipated indicating that they think the ice is now moving twice as quick as they thought and certainly when Nansen's ship Fram made the same journey in the 1890s. Curious though as I thought satalite and submarine data would have given a better estimate of ice speeds. |
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GregWatson
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jun 07, 2008
Posts: 127
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| Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 3:00 am Post subject: Re: Record Ice Loss in Arctic 2008 |
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Ice concentration
Compared to the same time last year this is not looking good. If this continues, it is not good for anybody.
Greg |
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dohboi
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Dec 05, 2005
Posts: 1258
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| Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 2:40 pm Post subject: Re: Record Ice Loss in Arctic 2008 |
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sjn, that graph should be on the front page of every newspaper and website in the world, but in fact I have not been able to find one news item about it on the entire world wide web.
I knew we were going down, but I thought by the time the signs were this clear, that it would be more than a few climate nerds watching it happening.
We won't even wake up to notice that we are being snuffed out. |
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vetusfirma
Heavy Crude
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Joined: May 25, 2008
Posts: 219
Location: West KC
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| Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 3:31 pm Post subject: Re: Record Ice Loss in Arctic 2008 |
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I will be so glad when the ice is finally gone. Bevis and butthead will finally quit talking about it...
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