| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
ROCKMAN
Intermediate Crude
Joined: May 27, 2008
Posts: 670
Location: TEXAS
|
 Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 7:04 pm Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil |
  |
|
There's not much FreddyH will likely ever agree upon but I'm glad he's here. Diversity doesn't mean we will all agree. So I will jump on his side of the fence for a moment (kinda). If you look at in from a stone cold perspective there will never be PO.
There will always be enough oil for those that can afford it or who are strong enough to take it away from the weaker. Thus supply will meet demand.
Not the sort of existance I'd care to be a part but it's one way of looking at the future |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
ROCKMAN
Intermediate Crude
Joined: May 27, 2008
Posts: 670
Location: TEXAS
|
| Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 6:16 am Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil |
|
|
Thanks for the update PD. I'm often a sarcastic smartass myself so it took a lot out of me to try to be cordial to him.
I feel much better now. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Oil_be_alroit
Tar Sands
Joined: Jun 18, 2008
Posts: 22
|
| Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 8:16 am Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil |
|
|
| ROCKMAN wrote: | | There will always be enough oil for those that can afford it or who are strong enough to take it away from the weaker. Thus supply will meet demand. |
I think that's very true.
Imagine this: suppose this time next year oil is at $250 a barrel. My guess is that a lot of Prius's will be off the road but the Ferrari's, Rolls-Royces and even Hummers won't because they're driven by people who can still happily afford to pay $10/gal. These people will probably even be happy because there won't be nearly so many traffic jams. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
VMarcHart
Intermediate Crude
Joined: May 26, 2008
Posts: 576
Location: Chicago, IL
|
| Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 8:20 am Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil |
|
|
| Oil_be_alroit wrote: | | Imagine this: suppose this time next year oil is at $250 a barrel. My guess is a lot of Prius's will be off the road but the Ferrari's, Rolls-Royces and even Hummers won't because they're driven by people who can still happily afford to pay $10/gal. These people will probably even be happy because there won't be nearly so many traffic jams. |
And save lots of gas too. Can't wait!  |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
ROCKMAN
Intermediate Crude
Joined: May 27, 2008
Posts: 670
Location: TEXAS
|
| Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 8:30 am Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil |
|
|
Actually Oil there are some economic models which project an advantage to the stronger economies (eventually) whereby they can out compete the weaker ones and pay for the oil and thus increase their market share of their products. Just as you characterize the wealthy affording low mpg cars while the poorer can't afford the Prius purchase/fuel due decreasing purchase power. Obviously China pops to mind. Just a wild projection on my part: due to their expanding economy China can out pay for oil thanks to a rapidly expanding GNP which allows them to take an increasing larger of the auto makers market which generates more income allowing a great advantage over other (US?) auto makers. Their advantage is the high energy prices are offset by low labor costs.
Several years ago I read a report that there was one auto model at General Motors that netted them more profit than all their other models combined. It was a cheap 4 cylider wago the built in China. If this was true it could stand as a bit of varification for the above hypothesis. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
skeptik
Heavy Crude
Joined: Aug 24, 2005
Posts: 298
Location: Costa Geriatrica, Spain
|
| Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 8:32 am Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil |
|
|
| RSB wrote: | From TonyPrep's link:
| Quote: | | The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 50 percent of the time since its introduction in April 2004. |
In other words, a coin flip is as accurate as those analysts in predicting the direction of oil futures? Am I missing something here? |
Yup...you need to rent an expensive office, put up an impressive looking nameplate, buy a suit and an attractive receptionist. Then people will pay you for your coin flip. What you must not do is allow them to see you flipping the coin. It's called being a 'consultant'. Nice work if you can get it.
oh... and you have to present your coinflip in a professionally printed document with lots of graphs, ifs and buts. If you get it wrong you need lots of reasons why as your getout. With a good spinmeister on staff, whenever you get it wrong, it can be presented in such a way to convince people that you actually got it right. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
ROCKMAN
Intermediate Crude
Joined: May 27, 2008
Posts: 670
Location: TEXAS
|
| Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 8:41 am Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil |
|
|
So true Skeptic. As a truly crooked oil operator I once worked for was found of saying: "I'm selling the sizzle...not the steak. And while they're focused on the plate I reach back and snatch their wallet".
You'll be happy to know that my cohorts and I were able to eventually get him busted by the Texas Rangers. Yep...Texas Rangers. Their still around and going strong. They are sort of like the state's FBI these days. But they still hunt down cattle rustlers too. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Oil_be_alroit
Tar Sands
Joined: Jun 18, 2008
Posts: 22
|
| Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 8:47 am Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil |
|
|
| ROCKMAN wrote: | Obviously China pops to mind. Just a wild projection on my part: due to their expanding economy China can out pay for oil thanks to a rapidly expanding GNP which allows them to take an increasing larger of the auto makers market which generates more income allowing a great advantage over other (US?) auto makers. Their advantage is the high energy prices are offset by low labor costs.
|
There's no question in my mind that car manufacturing in the western world is doomed (with the exception of niche markets). This would happen even without PO. Where it gets nasty is, as you said Rockman, China will be in a position to pay for the oil. This really closes the door on the west in an economic downturn - without resorting to the military option... |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
skeptik
Heavy Crude
Joined: Aug 24, 2005
Posts: 298
Location: Costa Geriatrica, Spain
|
| Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 8:50 am Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil |
|
|
| Oil_be_alroit wrote: |
Imagine this: suppose this time next year oil is at $250 a barrel. My guess is that a lot of Prius's will be off the road but the Ferrari's, Rolls-Royces and even Hummers won't because they're driven by people who can still happily afford to pay $10/gal. These people will probably even be happy because there won't be nearly so many traffic jams. |
Im not so sure. People who drive that sort of flashy motor are the aspirational rich - people who are not that rich but want other people to think that they are. They are into conspicuous consumption, often on credit. They got their McMansion with a 'liar loan', and a Hummer or Roller in the drive bought on credit completes the picture.
The ultra rich have nothing to prove, and in general try to avoid attracting attention. (unless they happen to be car fanatics like Bill Gates) What, for instance, does Warren Buffett drive? As of March this year, a 2001 Lincoln Town Car. Very comfortable, very boring - the sort of car nobody would turn an eye at. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
VMarcHart
Intermediate Crude
Joined: May 26, 2008
Posts: 576
Location: Chicago, IL
|
| Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 8:51 am Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil |
|
|
| Oil_be_alroit wrote: | | ...China will be in a position to pay for the oil. This really closes the door on the west in an economic downturn - without resorting to the military option... |
We better hone our Kung Fu moves then. It will probably have to come down to it. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Oil_be_alroit
Tar Sands
Joined: Jun 18, 2008
Posts: 22
|
| Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 8:57 am Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil |
|
|
| skeptik wrote: |
The ultra rich have nothing to prove, and in general try to avoid attracting attention. (unless they happen to be car fanatics like Bill Gates) What, for instance, does Warren Buffett drive? As of March this year, a 2001 Lincoln Town Car. Very comfortable, very boring - the sort of car nobody would turn an eye at. |
A Lincoln Town Car, however boring, is still no Prius when it comes to fuel consumption. What will it give you? 20mpg going 45 downhill with the wind behind it? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
hope_full
Heavy Crude
Joined: May 27, 2008
Posts: 173
|
| Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 9:10 am Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil |
|
|
| Quote: | | There's no question in my mind that car manufacturing in the western world is doomed (with the exception of niche markets). This would happen even without PO. |
Why do you believe that? There's no evidence that Americans have any interest in changing their lifestyle, until such point as that lifestyle is financially untenable. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Oil_be_alroit
Tar Sands
Joined: Jun 18, 2008
Posts: 22
|
| Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 9:23 am Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil |
|
|
| hope_full wrote: | | There's no evidence that Americans have any interest in changing their lifestyle, until such point as that lifestyle is financially untenable. |
I was only talking about manufacturing in the west. We've been pricing ourselves out of the market in everything from Nikes to TVs to mass production cars preferring either to buy imports, or license their manufacture in countries with cheaper labour costs e.g. China. Without oil problems there would always be a market for Hummers, Cadillacs and BMWs. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
TonyPrep
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Sep 25, 2005
Posts: 1972
Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
|
| Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 12:36 pm Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil |
|
|
| I could have sworn that this was a discussion about Michael Lynch's view on oil's future. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
ROCKMAN
Intermediate Crude
Joined: May 27, 2008
Posts: 670
Location: TEXAS
|
| Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 2:36 pm Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil |
|
|
TonyPrep,
Michael who????
Good point Tony...we do get to rambling at times |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
