How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 2:07 am Post subject: Summer of DOOM
The Peak Oil Crisis: The Summer Ahead
Quote:
The situation is not good. Our average gasoline price just climbed past $4 a gallon and all indications are that it will continue to rise. After Goldman-Sachs made headlines by telling us that oil is going to $150 or maybe $200 a barrel in six months or maybe two years, Morgan Stanley announced that oil was going to $150 dollars a barrel by the 4th of July. Not to be outdone, the CEO of Russia’s Gazprom, weighed in with a forecast of $250 oil in the “foreseeable future.” As oil jumped $11 in a single day to just below $140 last week, all of these estimates seem plausible.
A good place to start looking at the current situation is with the latest International Energy Agency (IEA) and Energy Information Administration (EIA) monthly reports which were released earlier this week. As could be expected, high prices have led to a drop in demand now projected to be 280,000 barrels a day (b/d) in the U.S. and other OECD countries during 2008. This drop however is easily offset by a 1.2 million b/d increase in demand by other countries such as China, India and the Middle East.
Growth in worldwide oil supply is not doing well. Non-OPEC production is sagging and is expected to increase by only 310,000 b/d this year and OPEC currently is close to producing flat-out out with new projects slipping. OPEC’s production is now expected to grow by only 500,000 b/d during 2008, half of the amount anticipated earlier this year. The bottom line is that supply is not keeping up with demand.
The most troublesome aspect of the IEA report is that OECD crude stocks fell by 8.1 million barrels in April – a time of the year when they typically increase by 30 million barrels. Preliminary numbers suggest that the drop is continuing in May and June. The world is living off its stockpiles, a situation that will not long endure. If it turns out that supply only grows by about 500,000 b/d while demand increases by 800,000 b/d, it should be obvious that prices are going up until the demand falls.
Quote:
While not yet precarious, the supply/demand/stockpile balance in the U.S. is becoming a cause for concern. Keep in mind that the U.S. must import two-thirds of its crude oil and petroleum products each day. So far this year domestic crude production is down by 1.6 percent over last year, but imports of crude and products are down by 7.5 percent. Over the last month the situation has grown worse with crude oil imports down by 8 percent and net product imports down by 25 percent.
Although some maintain the U.S. refiners can import all the oil they can use, others are concerned that the drop in exports from Mexico and Venezuela, coupled with continuing insurgent interruptions in Nigerian oil production, means that three of the U.S.’s top suppliers are no longer sending us our accustomed quantities.
Now this would be all right if we were reducing our consumption by an equal amount. So far this year however, U.S. consumption is down by only 2.8 percent and according to the EIA during the last month, U.S. consumption of gasoline and other petroleum products is down by only 1.3 percent. Like the rest of the world, we are living on stockpiles.
This situation obviously cannot go on. During the last month, U.S. crude stockpiles have dropped by 18 million barrels out of a total commercial reserve which is now just over 300 million barrels. Remember that much of that 300 million is below the minimum operating threshold and as a practical matter is not useable.
Most of the drop in U.S. crude stocks currently is along the Gulf coast where imports from Mexico and Venezuela usually arrive. If, or when, shortages develop, they likely will start there. With the first shortages, there naturally will be great pressure to dip into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, especially before the November election, to keep the wheels turning for a little longer.
Joined: Jun 04, 2008 Posts: 9 Location: The City of Angels
Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 3:13 am Post subject: Re: Summer of DOOM
wow very doomerish. Leave it to Tom Whipple to always have something concise and right on to add to the dialogue.
Living off our stockpiles cannot last. Prices are gonna be quickly going up big time and shortages are gonna start showing up. By 2010 our lives are going to be drastically changed especially with no more oil coming in from Mexico.
Let's hope for the best in people and in our adaptability to change.
The Word of the day is DOWNSIZE, I know I try to communicate it to everyone I interact with
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 2784 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 4:32 am Post subject: Re: Summer of DOOM
seldom_seen wrote:
As if they want to make things as bad as they can get them before things go under. Can someone explain this to me?
They don't realize what's going on - I mean, no clue. Zip. A doomer - no wait, DOOMER - pal of mine likes to tell people he'll be fine, because he's going to mount a wind turbine on the roof of his car. Usually they take an active interest in his admirable renewable energy stance... _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
Walter, there is an unspoken message here.
Joined: Jun 06, 2008 Posts: 8 Location: Grosse Pointe, Mi
Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 5:13 am Post subject: Re: Summer of DOOM
I'm new here, and relatively uninformed, compared to all of you. Thanks to you I am learning quickly. Could someone please explain/define stockpiles and reserves, national and global? And do the numbers include the govt's Strategic Reserves?
Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 5:14 am Post subject: Re: Summer of DOOM
the local paper (Austin American) keeps printing letters to the editor about if we only could drill in ANWAR we wouldn't be dependant on foriegn oil anymore.
Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 7:46 am Post subject: Re: Summer of DOOM
Idiot Conservative - "If we could only drill in ANWAR we wouldn't be in this mess."
Idiot Liberal - "If we would just invest in alternatives, we wouldn't be in this mess." _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 2784 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 7:53 am Post subject: Re: Summer of DOOM
Do they always misspell ANWR? That extra A makes it look similar to Ghawar, always seemed like some subconscious mental slip to me.
Phoeberose - Wolf at the Door is an excellent PO primer. Stock(pile)s are simply how much oil/gasoline/etc. we have in the distribution/storage system. Note that this has to remain above a certain Minimum Operating Level, or MOL. In the US for crude oil this is ca. 270 million barrels.
Joined: Jun 18, 2004 Posts: 702 Location: Western North Carolina
Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 8:10 am Post subject: Re: Summer of DOOM
Yeah, that ANWR reserve will producing 14M bbl/day in a few months once it goes online right? No need for imported oil then! If it weren't for those damn liberal enviro whackos we could have $1 gasoline from now to infinity.
My friend from Austin keeps sending me emails to the same effect, including Lindsay Williams stuff.
I wondered where he was getting it from. Now I know. Austin American Statesman and Alex Jones..
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