Joined: May 27, 2007 Posts: 1433 Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian
Posted: Wed Jun 18, 2008 11:12 am Post subject: Re: NATO faces critical battle in Afghanistan
The Battle Begins
Afghan government troops, backed by Canadian NATO forces, have launched a large-scale offensive in southern Afghanistan to try to flush out hundreds of Taliban fighters and avert the largest insurgency threat since the ousting of the Taliban regime in 2001.
More than 600 rebels had apparently taken over about eight villages in Arghandab, after storming Kandahar city's central jail and freeing more than 1,000 inmates, including 350 Taliban fighters who are believed to have rejoined the ongoing insurgency.
Very few prisoners were recaptured since Friday's jail break, seen as a major victory for the Taliban, which has substantial support from the south, and an embarrassment to the U.S.-allied government of President Hamid Karzai, who also hails from Kandahar.
Analysts say the Taliban's capture of the villages this week was a significant show of the movement's growing power in the country.
Taliban spokesmen said their fighters had grouped in Arghandab, 20 kilometers (12 miles) north of Kandahar, to launch attacks in the city itself, the birthplace of the Islamic militant movement that ruled much of Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001.
The Arghandab district is a lush agricultural valley known for its vineyards, pomegranate orchards and hashish production, as well as irrigation ditches, providing good fighting and hiding positions for the rebels, according to analysts.
Its proximity to Kandahar allows the Taliban easier access to attempt a comeback to the city by launching attacks there and further weakening the government, something the 150,000-strong Afghan forces and 60,000-member U.S.-led NATO forces from 40 countries apparently dread.
The large numbers of Afghan and NATO forces – known as the International Security Assistance Force, or ISAF – have failed to prevent a dramatic resurfacing of the Taliban in the past two years, where the group has managed to regain strength, influence, weapons and recruits.
The group says it has been finding eager recruits as active fighters and that their numbers were growing into the thousands, a figure that would have been considered impossible almost seven years ago when they were ousted from power by the U.S.-led war following the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on the United States.
The movement's officials have boasted regaining control of large parts of the countryside, where they have found welcoming and supportive residents disillusioned with administrative corruption.
There was little information available on the fighting in Arghandab, which was declared a closed military zone. Roads linking the southern villages to Kandahar, where a night curfew was imposed, were also sealed off.
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Joined: May 27, 2007 Posts: 1433 Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian
Posted: Wed Jun 18, 2008 11:26 am Post subject: Re: NATO faces critical battle in Afghanistan
Taliban forces claim to have entered the city of Kandahar
The Taliban confirmed on Wednesday that its fighters were close to entering the southern Afghan city of Kandahar to launch a fresh assault on Afghan and Canadian soldiers.
The Canadian troops are part of a NATO force which launched an operation early Wednesday to drive Taliban insurgents, active in the Arghandab district, from the outskirts of Kandahar. The operation is being carried out with the Afghan army.
"A group of attackers has entered Kandahar city and they want to carry out martyrdom operations against the Canadian occupation's high ranking officers and [Afghanistan's] puppet administration and puppet army," Taliban spokesperson Qari Yousuf told AKI.
He said that the group is known as the Khalid bin Walid of Martyrdom attackers.
The Taliban invited all its supporters to join their fight against Afghan and foreign forces.
"The leadership of the Islamic Emirate orders all mujahadeen of Zabul, Ghazni, Helmand, Farah, Wardak and all the districts of Kandahar province to block the ways for the enemy and attack the bases and convoys of the enemy," Yousuf told AKI.
He also said that the Taliban was likely to take control of Kandahar city but he could not say when this would happen because of the "secrecy of the military operations."
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Joined: May 27, 2007 Posts: 1433 Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian
Posted: Wed Jun 18, 2008 11:36 am Post subject: Re: NATO faces critical battle in Afghanistan
Pakistan reaches peace accord with Taliban
Provincial President of ANP and Peace Ambassador of NWFP government Afrasiab Khattak said that Swat peace agreement was intact and a package was being prepared to implement Sharia law in Swat.
Talking to Geo News, he said there was no truth behind scrapping of Swat Peace Agreement, adding the deal was under no threat.
Khattak said provincial government and Swat’s Taliban were committed to the agreement while monitoring committee was holding weekly meeting to ensure its implementation.
ANP Provincial President said process to release arrested people according to the agreement is underway.
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Joined: May 27, 2007 Posts: 1433 Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian
Posted: Wed Jun 18, 2008 11:57 am Post subject: Re: NATO faces critical battle in Afghanistan
India is no longer the ogre in Pakistan. That baton has been passed to the US, the country most Pakistanis love to hate. In fact, at the moment, there is a relatively relaxed approach towards India in Pakistan.
The Pakistani army, widely seen as the American tool in the ‘war against terror’, has suffered at least a thousand casualties as it fought the jehadis in the badlands bordering Afghanistan. In fact, the new army strategy seems to be one of disengagement with the jehadis, one of buying peace with Baitullah Mahsud — the public face of the jehad in Pakistan. With some troops being pulled back from south Waziristan, it appears that Army Chief Ashfaq Kayani is looking for breathing space to re-assess his strategy in the tribal areas.
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Joined: May 27, 2007 Posts: 1433 Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian
Posted: Wed Jun 18, 2008 12:24 pm Post subject: Re: NATO faces critical battle in Afghanistan
Pakistan nukes pose major threat to regional security - analyst
Pakistan's nuclear arsenal poses a greater threat to security in the region than Iran's uranium enrichment, due to the volatile political situation in the country, a Russian expert said on Tuesday.
The situation in Pakistan has seriously deteriorated following the assassination of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto last year. Opponents of President Pervez Musharraf won elections in February and have called for the president to step down.
"We are witnessing a severe political crisis in the country [Pakistan], which possesses weapons of mass destruction, but for some reason we are not paying attention to this problem," Karaganov told a news conference at RIA Novosti.
Last year, Pakistan conducted a successful test launch of a new version of its long-range nuclear-capable missile, the Shaheen II (Hatf VI), which has a range of 2,000 kilometers (1,245 miles).
Various sources estimate that Pakistan has built at least 50 nuclear warheads.
What is the future of Pakistan after the departure of Musharraf? Some international think tanks believe that after Musharraf a vacuum will arrive in Pakistani military. The in fights among the three branches of the military as well as within each of the branches will cause a massive gap of security.
Taliban can expand its territory at that time threatening nuke installations of Pakistan. Can Pakistan really turn into a nightmare for India and the world? Can Pakistan turn into nuclear Taliban?
The answer lies on the Pakistani Military on the long run. India should help Pakistan military at this time. If Pakistan military crumbles, Taliban will take it over. That will be a nightmare for India, Afghanistan and perhaps for the rest of the world.
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Joined: Mar 09, 2006 Posts: 470 Location: Al-Mariyya, Al-Andalus
Posted: Wed Jun 18, 2008 12:44 pm Post subject: Re: NATO faces critical battle in Afghanistan
Quite a lot of scare mongering from the Indian press, only to be expected. From what I gather from family and friends on the ground, it is unlikely the Pakistani military will 'crumble'. Quite the opposite: they are well used to holding and maintaining power.
There is deep unrest within the military (don't forget it was heavily 'islamicised' by Zia) both against US interference and Musharraf's towing the line, and continued indiscriminate slaughter of their brothers in Afghanistan. There is no danger of nuclear arsenal 'falling into' Taliban hands. The pak military have as sophisticated a safety system and chain of command as any Western nuclear power, and are probably far less likely to find themselves in a nuclear standoff than, say Israel.
Still and all, as Nike said: impossible is nothing
Joined: May 27, 2007 Posts: 1433 Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian
Posted: Wed Jun 18, 2008 12:54 pm Post subject: Re: NATO faces critical battle in Afghanistan
India seems more interested in maintaining Musharraf in power. Perhaps they fear the unknown that comes with the opposition.
I would be interested in how India thinks it might 'help' Pakistan's military. Surely things have not improved that much between India and Pakistan.
We get too many international hands in there trying to disarm the Pakistani nuclear crisis, we might set it off. _________________ Time to recognize there are only two classes of people; those that stole the wealth of America and those that got fleeced.
Joined: May 27, 2007 Posts: 1433 Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian
Posted: Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:01 pm Post subject: Re: NATO faces critical battle in Afghanistan
Taliban win tactical success near Kandahar
"They are not moving out, and based on the few hours of combat operations they are still fighting, so we will have to clear the area.
"There are setbacks ... the prison breakout and the Arghandab operation, and there will be setbacks in the future," Canadian Major-General Marc Lessard, commander of NATO forces in southern Afghanistan, told Reuters in an interview.
"They've definitely managed to achieve some kind of tactical success, there's no doubt there," he said.
Canadian soldiers leading ISAF operations around Kandahar, the former de facto Taliban capital, have suffered one of the highest casualty rates among NATO forces fighting mainly to the west of the city, and kept a lighter presence in Arghandab.
British troops were flown into Kandahar yesterday to help regain control of the city.
Chinooks carried paratroopers from 3rd Battalion The Parachute Regiment low over roof tops into the city's football stadium.
The troopers immediately fanned out into the city to overwhelm the insurgent strongholds that have sprung up since Friday.
Ministerial approval was sought for the deployment of British troops into Afghanistan's southern capital for the first time since Special Forces forced the Taliban out of Kandahar in 2001.
Some officers have referred to the fight as the Taliban's "Tet Offensive" in reference to the 1968 Viet Cong operation which undermined American military authority in Vietnam.
If the US and other NATO forces do not draw the right lessons, the day is not far off when April 29, 1975, in Vietnam will be repeated in Afghanistan.
We saw in Vietnam a clash of wills between a low-tech Vietcong and hi-tech Americans.
Low-tech ultimately prevailed over hi-tech.
Hi-tech taught the Americans how to kill--more and more.
One lost count of the body-counts projected by the US Army officers in South Vietnam and by Mr.Robert McNamara, the then US Defence Secretary, in Washington DC as indicators that the US was winning the war.
If body-counts alone could win a war, the Americans should have won in Vietnam. They did not.
There is something more to battles than body-counts--morale, motivation, determination, ability to improvise and faith in oneself. The Vietcong had them in plenty.
In addition, the Vietcong had something more, which ultimately made the difference--the ability to recover and fight again and again undeterred by all the losses suffered by them at the hands of the American troops, artillery and air force.
20 years ago we taught the Afghani how to fight exactly this kind of war. They succeeded against the Soviets. Now they have passed on these lessons learned to the younger generation who are facing NATO troops. If the Soviets couldn't win 20 years ago, what makes us think we can win now, especially since the USSR actually bordered Afghanistan? What makes us think this is even worth it? Do we really think we can take over other people's countries and steal their oil? We are seeing Afghanistan as a stepping stone to Central Asian Oil. Is the Bush Administration insane? Far more Americans have died in Afghanistan and Iraq than on 9/11. All we've acomplished is to multiply the number of people in the world who hate the United States.
Joined: Mar 09, 2006 Posts: 470 Location: Al-Mariyya, Al-Andalus
Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 2:12 am Post subject: Re: NATO faces critical battle in Afghanistan
Cid:
Quote:
India seems more interested in maintaining Musharraf in power. Perhaps they fear the unknown that comes with the opposition.
I would be interested in how India thinks it might 'help' Pakistan's military. Surely things have not improved that much between India and Pakistan.
Several things: India's vast population is predominantly Muslim, making a political and energy alliance with the US (currently the world's foremost suppresor of Islam) very difficult for the Indian government to pull off. The US would like to coax India into a deal over Iraqi supplies, but the Indians have already started negotiations with Iran and Pakistan, through which country their supplies must come.
-"Iran Moves Closer to Energy Deals With India, Pakistan, By Patrick Goodenough April 30, 2008(CNSNews.com) - Iran edged closer Tuesday to realizing its plans for a pipeline to carry Iranian natural gas to Pakistan and India, a project that would help Tehran's effort to break free from isolation. The plan is strongly opposed by the United States."
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The Indians are perhaps the most canny, shrewd and intelligent people on earth (along with the Chinese), they are no doubt weighing the advantages and disadvantages of supporting this or that outcome in neighbouring Pakistan. But one thing is for certain, it is vital to India, that Afghanistan be calmed, mainly because of securing gas and oil supplies via the region.
Also, there has been a paradigm shift in the Pakistani population, its view of itself and its role within Pakistan: anti-Americanism has never been higher. Usually the middle to upper classes had known which side their bread was buttered and continued to lick the US boot. Now this is seen more and more as a vestige of old imperialism/colonialism and the current civil society can not stand the interference in Afghanistan and Iraq any longer:
-"Political scientist Mohammad Waseem says this sentiment is rooted in major social trends: "A generational shift is under way - from an India-centric military-bureaucratic and political elite, to one which was born in the post- Independence period. The consciousness of the old elite was shaped by opposition between 'Hindu India' and 'Muslim Pakistan', by the notion of 'a clash of cultures' defined by religion, and by bitter memories of partition [in 1947]."
However, says Waseem, "the new generation which has matured in the recent past does not define itself mainly by opposition to India. It is free of the burden of a uniquely violent past linked to the mass killings of Partition. It does not associate Pakistan's survival with hostility towards India."
20 years ago we taught the Afghani how to fight exactly this kind of war. They succeeded against the Soviets.
I think it is naive to think the Taleban learned their tactics from US sources who have proven themselves incapable, over and over again, of tackling this style or urban/guerila warfare in countless situations. All they do is resort to arial bombing. The idea that Petraus or any other US commander is an 'expert' in insurgent warfare, is a joke. The experts seem to be winning....
Joined: Dec 02, 2005 Posts: 6384 Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 12:54 pm Post subject: Re: NATO faces critical battle in Afghanistan
virgincrude wrote:
...India's vast population is predominantly Muslim, making a political and energy alliance with the US (currently the world's foremost suppresor of Islam) very difficult for the Indian government to pull off...
How can you not know that the Muslim population of India is very small? How can you not know that India is a Hindu country?
Religions: Hindu 80.5%, Muslim 13.4%, Christian 2.3%, Sikh 1.8%, Buddhists 0.8%, Jains 0.4%, others 0.7%, unspecified 0.1% (2001 Census)
We Americans are pathetically unaware of what the rest of the world is really like. _________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Joined: Mar 09, 2006 Posts: 470 Location: Al-Mariyya, Al-Andalus
Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 3:32 pm Post subject: Re: NATO faces critical battle in Afghanistan
Sorry Zardoz, I meant to say India's Muslim population is in fact greater than Pakistan's.
Quote:
The figures of national and State-wise Muslim population are very much in demand for various reasons. The primary reason is that the Muslim community is the second largest religious community in the country and forms almost 2/3 of all the religious minorities taken together. Muslim population is almost always in the public arena and both Hindu and Muslim ‘spokesmen’, speaking for their respective communities, while differing on many points, agree on one aspect. They both amplify and exaggerate the Muslim population, the first, to convince their followers about the rising ‘Islamic menace’, a threat to the country and at least to its Hindu character, the second, to raise the morale of a politically deprived, educationally backward, economically poor and socially vilified, frustrated community!
Although home to a Hindu majority, India has a Muslim population of some 150 million, making it the state with the second-largest Muslim population in the world after Indonesia.
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