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WebHubbleTelescope
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Jul 08, 2004
Posts: 909
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 Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 9:44 am Post subject: Derivation of the Logistic model of oil depletion |
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See this TOD post of mine:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4171
It finally explains the classic shape of the Hubbert peak.
IMO this is a first-principles derivation that doesn't use the Verhulst equation. The premise behind using Verhulst never made any sense to me. |
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cipi604
Heavy Crude
Joined: Aug 14, 2007
Posts: 245
Location: Montreal Canada
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| Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 11:25 am Post subject: Re: Derivation of the Logistic model of oil depletion |
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| Numbers don't lie. |
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WebHubbleTelescope
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Jul 08, 2004
Posts: 909
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| Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 1:16 pm Post subject: Re: Derivation of the Logistic model of oil depletion |
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| cipi604 wrote: | | Numbers don't lie. |
Indeed, and liars don't count.
I liked this comment I got on TheOilDrum:
| Quote: | | "WHT analysis would have been important in the 1920-1930's but its 2008 now and they seems to have done quite well without the dispersive model." |
My response was: A common theme among many observers. For example, Big Bang Theory seems to be a hot topic among scientific cosmologists and the Stephen Hawking fans. But some genius comes along and says "Why is the Big Bang important? That happened billions of years ago, and I can't buy gas for less than $4 a gallon today."
So it's all a matter of perspective. We still want to understand how we got ourselves into this mess. |
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