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Zardoz
Expert
Joined: Dec 02, 2005
Posts: 6284
Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
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 Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 2:36 pm Post subject: L.A. Times: The sweeping effects of $200-a-barrel oil |
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The MainStream Media is really getting it, folks. They're catching on, and catching up:
Envisioning a world of $200-a-barrel oil - As forecasters take that possibility more seriously, they describe fundamental shifts in the way we work, where we live and how we spend our free time.
| Quote: | The more expensive oil gets, the more Katherine Carver's life shrinks. She's given up RV trips. She stays home most weekends. She's scrapped her twice-a-month volunteer stint at a Malibu wildlife refuge -- the trek from her home in Palmdale just got too expensive.
How much higher would fuel prices have to go before she quit her job? Already, the 170-mile round-trip commute to her job with Los Angeles County Child Support Services in Commerce is costing her close to $1,000 a month -- a fifth of her salary. It's got the 55-year-old thinking about retirement.
"It's definitely pushing me to that point," Carver said.
The point could be closer than anyone thinks.
Three months ago, when oil was around $108 a barrel, a few Wall Street analysts began predicting that it could rise to $200. Many observers scoffed at the forecasts as sensational, or motivated by a desire among energy companies and investors to drive prices higher.
But with oil closing above $140 a barrel Friday, more experts are taking those predictions seriously -- and shuddering at the inflation-fueled chaos that $200-a-barrel crude could bring. They foresee fundamental shifts in the way we work, where we live and how we spend our free time.
"You'd have massive changes going on throughout the economy," said Robert Wescott, president of Keybridge Research, a Washington economic analysis firm. "Some activities are just plain going to be shut down." |
Tell us about it, Bob. And if you think it'll be bad at $200, you aren't gonna believe what'll be happening when it hits double that price and beyond.
_________________
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen |
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roccman
Fusion
Joined: Apr 27, 2007
Posts: 4262
Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
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| Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 2:41 pm Post subject: Re: L.A. Times: The sweeping effects of $200-a-barrel oil |
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No - MSM is not getting it.
We are living in an $85 per barrel world.
Not a $140 world.
No they are not getting it ...
_________________
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
We are going back to roccland - me |
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hope_full
Heavy Crude
Joined: May 27, 2008
Posts: 173
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| Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 3:44 pm Post subject: Re: L.A. Times: The sweeping effects of $200-a-barrel oil |
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| Quote: | No - MSM is not getting it.
We are living in an $85 per barrel world.
Not a $140 world. |
Which begs the question, when will we be experiencing that $140 world? How long does it take for that to trickle down to the gas pump at the local convenience store? |
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pasttense
Coal
Joined: Jun 14, 2008
Posts: 10
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| Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 4:03 pm Post subject: Re: L.A. Times: The sweeping effects of $200-a-barrel oil |
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"the 170-mile round-trip commute to her job with Los Angeles County Child Support Services in Commerce is costing her close to $1,000 a month"
What kind of idiot would live that far from their job? |
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Rabblesthecat
Coal
Joined: Apr 09, 2007
Posts: 1
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| Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 4:32 pm Post subject: Re: L.A. Times: The sweeping effects of $200-a-barrel oil |
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| pasttense wrote: | "the 170-mile round-trip commute to her job with Los Angeles County Child Support Services in Commerce is costing her close to $1,000 a month"
What kind of idiot would live that far from their job? |
A freelance?
Currently live 10 miles from the station, 1.5 hour train journey to office - 2 mile walk from station to office
Move closer?
Maybe - but my next gig could be in the opposite direction by the same distance.
Ok, I live in the UK
Been lurking here for nigh on three years but this is the first post that has made me reply - most of the detail I cant add t0 but do not assume someone is stupid for living that far from their job.
For some the alternative is relocating the family home every six months. |
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catbox
Heavy Crude
Joined: Sep 29, 2005
Posts: 440
Location: EuGeNe, OrEgOn
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| Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 5:16 pm Post subject: Re: L.A. Times: The sweeping effects of $200-a-barrel oil |
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Seems like it's business as usual with the MSM as well as most of the world. Grateful for my 4 mile commute and the wife's 9 mile....the kid goes to school 5 minutes away....but we started make changes at $50 and have yet to see too many people making changes around us.
This LA Times article will pass under the rug just like they all do.
catbox
_________________
President Bush: “There’s no question about it. Wall Street got drunk—that’s one of the reasons I asked you to turn off the TV cameras. It got drunk, and now it’s got a hangover." |
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Tyler_JC
Moderator
Joined: Sep 25, 2004
Posts: 4422
Location: Boston, MA
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| Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 5:18 pm Post subject: Re: L.A. Times: The sweeping effects of $200-a-barrel oil |
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This article is clearly bogus.
| Quote: |
The pain would probably be particularly intense in Southern California, which is known for its long commutes and high cost of living.
"Throughout our history, we have grown on the assumption that energy costs would be low," said Michael Woo, a former Los Angeles city councilman and a current member of the city Planning Commission. "Now that those assumptions are shifting, it changes assumptions about housing, cars and how cities grow."
Push prices up fast enough, he said, and "it would be the urban-planning equivalent of an earthquake." |
Urban planning commission? In LA? 
Have they SEEN Los Angeles? If that city was designed by some kind of urban planning board, I'm the queen of England.
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"www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse." |
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ZombieMalthus
Coal
Joined: May 14, 2008
Posts: 19
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| Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 5:38 pm Post subject: Re: L.A. Times: The sweeping effects of $200-a-barrel oil |
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| Yeah, who's next? |
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Zardoz
Expert
Joined: Dec 02, 2005
Posts: 6284
Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
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| Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 7:30 pm Post subject: Re: L.A. Times: The sweeping effects of $200-a-barrel oil |
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| catbox wrote: | | This LA Times article will pass under the rug just like they all do. |
Don't think so. As we approach five bucks a gallon, people are paying attention.
_________________
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen |
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Revi
Fusion
Joined: Apr 25, 2005
Posts: 3112
Location: Maine
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| Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 7:41 pm Post subject: Re: L.A. Times: The sweeping effects of $200-a-barrel oil |
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It seems like a pretty common topic everywhere I go. People talk about gas and how expensive it is, but I don't see very many people doing anything about it.
When the effects of $140 a barrel ripple through the economy, we'll see people change their habits big time.
They won't have any choice.
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Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings. |
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Zardoz
Expert
Joined: Dec 02, 2005
Posts: 6284
Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
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| Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 7:56 pm Post subject: Re: L.A. Times: The sweeping effects of $200-a-barrel oil |
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| Tyler_JC wrote: | This article is clearly bogus...
...Urban planning commission? In LA?
Have they SEEN Los Angeles? If that city was designed by some kind of urban planning board, I'm the queen of England. |
Yeah, I see it all the time. Considering what it's up against, what it has to deal with on a daily basis, the kind of crap that goes on there, and who lives there, it functions remarkably well.
http://cityplanning.lacity.org/
What are you talking about?
_________________
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen |
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TreebeardsUncle
Intermediate Crude
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Joined: Jun 15, 2006
Posts: 542
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| Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 11:02 pm Post subject: Re: L.A. Times: The sweeping effects of $200-a-barrel oil |
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Well, that still won't be that big a deal.
Gas prices would come up about another $1.50 (2.4 cents per dollar increase in the price of a barrel of oil). That would put more pressure on airlines, truckers, etc, but qualitatively expect life to carry on pretty much as it had.
GM, Ford, and Chrysler would take a singnificant hit though.
g |
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catbox
Heavy Crude
Joined: Sep 29, 2005
Posts: 440
Location: EuGeNe, OrEgOn
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| Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 11:02 pm Post subject: Re: L.A. Times: The sweeping effects of $200-a-barrel oil |
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I just still hear lots of blaming and denial going on with people I know...maybe 5 dollar gas will push people to change. I got an endless eyeful of RV's and big trucks pulling trailers full of ATV's heading to the Oregon Coast today as we returned from our little vacation. It really blew me away actually...the traffic was thick with these things! Looked like business as usual.
catbox
P.S.
The 98 Beetle logged 398 miles on one tank of gas and we still have some left in the tank. First time we took it out of Eugene and it ran like a champ!
_________________
President Bush: “There’s no question about it. Wall Street got drunk—that’s one of the reasons I asked you to turn off the TV cameras. It got drunk, and now it’s got a hangover." |
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wisconsin_cur
Moderator
Joined: May 10, 2007
Posts: 2746
Location: The Entropisphere
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| Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 11:37 pm Post subject: Re: L.A. Times: The sweeping effects of $200-a-barrel oil |
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| pasttense wrote: | "the 170-mile round-trip commute to her job with Los Angeles County Child Support Services in Commerce is costing her close to $1,000 a month"
What kind of idiot would live that far from their job? |
<-------------This kind of idiot.
Of course it only costs me 300.00 a month. (~50 mpg)
As a result, however, I earn an extra 1,200 a month.
Which means I am making a profit up until diesel hits about 17.00 a gallon (and even then I can do a lot of things to cut down on my usage) making it continue to be profitable.
I am pretty comfortable with the gamble I have made that something will break before diesel gets to 17.00 a gallon.
But I planned for 5.00 a gallon diesel years ago when I started making the commute. After four years of the commute I have a line on a job that is comparable in pay, that I am qualified for that is only 15 miles from home. Because I have been patient I soon hope to see a large pay "increase" due to the (hoped for) new job since I will have both the efficiency of the commuting vehicle combined with a shorter commute. But again, that we the plan all along.
Lets try not to be one dimensional when we start the name calling...
otherwise we might prove that it is we ourselves who displays idiocy.
_________________
"Against stupidity the gods themselves contend in vain."
-Friedrich von Schiller
"What I try, may not work. It may be ineffective. It might even turn out in the pages of history to be the exact wrong thing to do, but I'm going to try to do what I c |
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cube
Fusion
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Joined: Mar 12, 2005
Posts: 3375
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| Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 12:53 am Post subject: Re: L.A. Times: The sweeping effects of $200-a-barrel oil |
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| pasttense wrote: | "the 170-mile round-trip commute to her job with Los Angeles County Child Support Services in Commerce is costing her close to $1,000 a month"
What kind of idiot would live that far from their job? |
Maybe she got the job back when gasoline was only 1/3rd the price?
//
I think roccman is onto something when he said:
"We are living in an $85 per barrel world. "
I think there's a lot of people + companies losing money today because they made a decision several years ago (which made perfect sense at the time) but in today's drastically different economy what was once an investment is now a liability but unfortunately people are stuck with it.  |
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