Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: Oct 04, 2004 Posts: 5719 Location: Body in OK, Heart in TX
Posted: Tue Aug 05, 2008 12:40 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
rdsaltpower wrote:
Oil fell below 120.00 today.
Listening to BBC news on the radio tonight, I heard them say the price drop was mainly due to temporary decreased demand from China as they shut down factories and go to restricted driving to reduce pollution in preparation for the Olympics. They also cited demand destruction in the US, but the China/Olympics reason was emphasized. _________________ "Every junkie's like a setting sun..." - Neil Young
Posted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 11:43 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
The election is 90 days out. Like the last election cycle, oil's going lower. Then again maybe $30 off its high is the ticket. Like DP and pup demonstrated on the inventory thread demand has kicked back in at this price-- in other words perhaps we've found a rough bottom. Chris Puplava's piece over at Financial Sense implied we could go as low as $105. After digesting Puplava's copious piece, perhaps the election year shenanigans drive the price lower form here, but I doubt it holds at the lowered levels for very long. _________________ Civilization: the biosphere's skin disease
Posted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 2:30 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
I could buy $100 even. Somewhere right below the 200dma which is at $110 is where I've been saying we'll eventually see a correction to.
The dollar is probably about to top out. Just like bull markets correct to the 200dma like oil is doing, bear markets correct to the 200 dma. Look at the chart below!!! The USDollar just hit the 200 day moving average today for the first time in over a year and a half.
Oil should bottom around the 200dma and then move sideways for a while, go up, have a fake out to the downside testing the lows and then go up, up, up and away.......... The fundamentals are just too strong for the price of oil to go down any further.......
Posted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 2:40 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
chuck6877 wrote:
I could buy $100 even. Somewhere right below the 200dma which is at $110 is where I've been saying we'll eventually see a correction to.
The dollar is probably about to top out. Just like bull markets correct to the 200dma like oil is doing, bear markets correct to the 200 dma. Look at the chart below!!! The USDollar just hit the 200 day moving average today for the first time in over a year and a half.
Oil should bottom around the 200dma and then move sideways for a while, go up, have a fake out to the downside testing the lows and then go up, up, up and away.......... The fundamentals are just too strong for the price of oil to go down any further.......
+1 _________________ "We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
Posted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 3:52 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
Chuck,
The dollar can breakout from this level, as Trichet and other FCB's might be in a cutting mood. Once pinned and closing above the 200 all bets on where she goes from here are dangerous.
BTW, oil seems to be holding its own lately--still bleeding a little-- even with the precipitous rise in the $. _________________ Civilization: the biosphere's skin disease
Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 7:14 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
Chuck,
Looks like you nailed it. ECB and BOE held, in effect saying screw you Bernanke . That should provide a seal tight ceiling for bucky and a nice floor for crude. _________________ Civilization: the biosphere's skin disease
Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 9:24 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
I suppose it's all the the time frame you live in. I don't trade futures...short or long...near term or extended. I forecast actual well head prices to develope economic models for drilling decisions. Oil going up or down $30 in a few weeks has no bearing to me. The article below offers a monthly look. I actually don't look at anything under a 6 month running average....which right now says we're still in a period of rapid (and probably unsustainable) increases.
From Rigzone today:
The weekly average prices of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dropped further to 121.87 U.S. dollars per barrel (dpb) last week, said the Vienna-based cartel Monday.
The prices were 2.95 dollars less than the previous week and therefore had dropped for four consecutively trading weeks by 16.44 dollars since the prices peak of 138.31 dpb which was set on the first week of July.
However, because of the large-scale prices surging in the first week of July the monthly average prices of July were even 2.89 dollars higher than June, reaching 131.22 dpb, which meant that the prices of OPEC have kept rising for the 7th consecutively trading month.
The daily average prices last week fluctuated slightly between 123.19 and 120.88 dpb. The prices kept dropping in the first three trading days from 123.19 dollars Monday to 120.88 dollars Wednesday. It then rebounded to 122.48 dollars Thursday and retreated to 121.08 dollars Friday.
Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 3:07 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
firestarter wrote:
Chuck,
Looks like you nailed it. ECB and BOE held, in effect saying screw you Bernanke . That should provide a seal tight ceiling for bucky and a nice floor for crude.
Well, like I said in my opinion, oil will probably go lower for a while which may even give the Fed, who now is less concerned with inflation because of the falling commodity prices from a normal correction, leeway to cut interest rates again at the next meeting....
This would be very bad like you said for the bucky but I think it might happen. Why? Because the U.S. economy is in terrible shape and just getting worse and Bernanke wants to help the economy more if he can and definitely doesn't want deflation. He'll take inflation.
His main goal I think is to try to put a floor in housing prices.
Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 11:41 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
The US Dollar Index, USDX had a decisive breakout above 74, hitting a high of 75.065 earlier today. Now that it's out of the 72-74 trading range where it has been for the past 3-4 months, continued strength could send it heading toward 76.
Could we see $110 or $100 oil? That's the billion-dollar question.
Looking around for a bottom while the Big Beijing Olympics Shutdown is in progress. In the meantime, gold has already broken through $875 and is heading toward $850.
Guys and gals - get your buy orders for 1 million barrels of oil and 10,000 ounces of gold ready ... _________________ Live quotes - crude oil, gold and currencies
http://www.post1.net/lowem/page/livequotes
Joined: Feb 20, 2005 Posts: 2888 Location: Uppsala, Sweden
Posted: Fri Aug 08, 2008 3:35 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
[img]http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3212/2741726929_26755beb20.jpg?v=0[/img] _________________ Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
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