I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:51 am Post subject: Re: Why America will break apart-What Cheap energy has done.
Quote:
Nuclear weapons were only ever used in an attack on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. At that time the US was the sole nation possessing nuclear weapons. Thus MAD could not apply -- that requires that the players involved all possess sufficient force to wipe each other out.
Hence your argument is a red herring.
The MAD reassurance against nuclear conflict seems based on several assumptions, the most important being the same fallacity of classical economics; that humans are thoroughly rational, which is just completely wrong. People and groups can and do perform acts that assure their own destruction, and it doesn't even have to affect the destruction of another group.
Furthermore, it also assumes that a first strike cannot cripple retalitory capacity. Furthermore, I believe there are numerous instances where war was close between the USSR and USA when both had nukes. This was during a time when the end of cheap energy, as well as other resources, was further off the radar.
Quote:
Very unlikely that the US will break apart unless it is involved in a nuclear war.
It's something which the US can't afford so TPTB will go to any length to avoid it. Most likely "the people" won't go for that either.
But some guys get kicks out of making such predictions. Maybe their life is boring so they need to make up some drama.
Really? I had gotten the impression that you seem to believe that nations in Europe will break apart due to diverse groups, but the US won't simply because their goverment won't allow it. So the US goverment is extremely altruistic or extremely omnipotent?
Some hundred years down the line, I would be surprised if the US exists in the same size of today, but on the other hand, countries like Russia have existed, which are far bigger than the US and contain a large diversity of ethnic groups within its borders.
Ethnicity seems a rationale for conflict between groups of people, but it is hardly the only rationale. As competition between people increases so will it be easier to find one, ANY rationale. _________________ "Life is merely an orderly decay of energy states, and survival requires the continual discovery of new energy to pump into the system. He who controls the sources of energy controls the means of survival. "
Joined: May 27, 2008 Posts: 73 Location: middle of the USA
Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:53 am Post subject: Re: Why America will break apart-What Cheap energy has done.
Ludi wrote:
think it is extremely unlikely the US will give up a couple of the highest GDP states in the union. I don't think the Mexican army would stand much of a chance against the US army.
True, if the US decided it really wanted to keep the American Southwest, yes, it will stay in the union. But would it? I don't think the American people have the appetite for Civil War 2.
There are plenty of precedents for minority groups deciding they want out, and deciding to make life miserable for everyone if they are not allowed to leave.
Would a group of hispanic activists decide the time to strike has come, say in 5 years, and start a terrorist independence movement? Maybe. Probably not a movement backed by a lot of people, but 1000 well armed people can do a lot of damage. (120,000 people would represent 1% of the hispanic population of California). Then, a lot of people leave for safer parts of the country, and jobs disappear. The states don't send so much tax money to Washington anymore.
Would the US government want to start Civil War II, or battle terrorists in the US indefinitely? I don't know. A lot depends on how much suffering is going on and the political will of the president.
I do think the chance of it happening is more than 2%, enough to think about.
BTW, Puerto Rican nationalists almost assassinated Harry Truman in 1950.
Joined: May 27, 2008 Posts: 73 Location: middle of the USA
Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2008 7:36 pm Post subject: Re: Why America will break apart-What Cheap energy has done.
Sorry - in my 2nd post on this thread I meant Zimbabwe, not Rwanda, as far as driving white farmers off their land with no one competent to take over. Of course most of you probably guessed that.
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1985 Location: Australia
Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 7:46 pm Post subject: Re: Why America will break apart-What Cheap energy has done.
I hope my question sort of fits in this thread.
What will it take to see some armed uprisings?
local state based revolution, outright guerilla warfare or even something across multiple states?
There seem to be a fair number of militias who already hate the federal government and with further power grabs, deterioration of peoples rights etc. IF the state governments themselves do not break off from the country, what will break the straw and set off armed action? (not necessarily as shootings in the beginning but possibly sabotage of buildings/infrastructure/bombs etc.)
I am sort of hoping for response on realistic events here from someone who knows the psyche of the people would be first in line to fire a shot.
Or do we simply believe they will stay home swearing and shooting bear cans until the weapons are taken away from them? _________________ It's not a bailout, it's a buy-in" - Nancy Pelosi
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 13065 Location: naive idiot fantasy world
Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 7:59 pm Post subject: Re: Why America will break apart-What Cheap energy has done.
Who would rise up and who would they rise up against? _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow." - jboogy
Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 6:36 am Post subject: Re: Why America will break apart-What Cheap energy has done.
August Kreis lived in my little burg several years ago. I was unimpressed. Several years prior to that, the K.K.K. staged a rally in the neighboring town. That was unimpressive as well. These fringe groups are made up a handful of malcontents and misfits. While the press loves to give these guys a headline, the reality is much more mundane.
The thing that was driving much of the militia movement in the south east was the Clinton Administration’s reading of the Second Amendment.
The Supreme Court has put a leash on the gun abolitionists. Fantasies of black helicopters and storm troopers are fading by the minute. The Bible thumping gun toting heartland that is so alien to Obama is relatively content. No rebellion this year.
Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 6:51 am Post subject: Re: Why America will break apart-What Cheap energy has done.
Cloud9 wrote:
August Kreis lived in my little burg several years ago. I was unimpressed. Several years prior to that, the K.K.K. staged a rally in the neighboring town. That was unimpressive as well. These fringe groups are made up a handful of malcontents and misfits. While the press loves to give these guys a headline, the reality is much more mundane.
The thing that was driving much of the militia movement in the south east was the Clinton Administration’s reading of the Second Amendment.
The Supreme Court has put a leash on the gun abolitionists. Fantasies of black helicopters and storm troopers are fading by the minute. The Bible thumping gun toting heartland that is so alien to Obama is relatively content. No rebellion this year.
What part of Earth do you live in? The "fantasies" you speak of are still very much alive. There is not content in the heartland. Surely you don't think the NRA says "OK, we can have guns" and then shut their doors, do you?
There may not be a rebellion this year, but before January 20,2009, depending.... _________________ A man should never wear a hat that has more character than he does.
Joined: Sep 03, 2007 Posts: 637 Location: Sunny Virginia, USA
Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 7:21 am Post subject: Re: Why America will break apart-What Cheap energy has done.
Muckingfess wrote:
Cloud9 wrote:
August Kreis lived in my little burg several years ago. I was unimpressed. Several years prior to that, the K.K.K. staged a rally in the neighboring town. That was unimpressive as well. These fringe groups are made up a handful of malcontents and misfits. While the press loves to give these guys a headline, the reality is much more mundane. The thing that was driving much of the militia movement in the south east was the Clinton Administration’s reading of the Second Amendment.
The Supreme Court has put a leash on the gun abolitionists. Fantasies of black helicopters and storm troopers are fading by the minute. The Bible thumping gun toting heartland that is so alien to Obama is relatively content. No rebellion this year.
What part of Earth do you live in? The "fantasies" you speak of are still very much alive. There is not content in the heartland. Surely you don't think the NRA says "OK, we can have guns" and then shut their doors, do you?
There may not be a rebellion this year, but before January 20,2009, depending....
It's too early in the morning to form clear thoughts but I have to say that I'm Sorry MF, no dice. Rebellion is fermented like a fine wine or popped like a shaken soda can. You need a number of ingredients for any kind of rebellion and they all have to be present in the right environment otherwise nothing happens. There have been mini rebellion-like protests in the past in the form of riots.
First, you have to have a disafected class that feels powerless. Then you need to have an event that makes people say, ENOUGH! on an emotional level. Saying enough! on an intellectual basis does not get you a riot in America because Americans have the freedoms to assemble, petition, speak and vote. These act as release valves for public discontent on an intellectual level and when implemented correctly, can cause rapid change.
The right to bear arms is an emotional release valve, in that it provides people with the idea that if it "get's too bad" or "they start coming for me" then they have the power to do something. Freedom of religion also provides a powerful vent to negative emotions.
While you may argue that the ingredients for revolution are there, I'll tell you that they have been there my entire adult life and probably much longer. However, until those ingredients are put together in the right way and in the right amount of time, nothing is going to happen.
Finally, the 60's showed everyone that the power to change the course of human events does not always require a gun. _________________ When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 7:46 am Post subject: Re: Why America will break apart-What Cheap energy has done.
jlw61 wrote:
Muckingfess wrote:
Cloud9 wrote:
August Kreis lived in my little burg several years ago. I was unimpressed. Several years prior to that, the K.K.K. staged a rally in the neighboring town. That was unimpressive as well. These fringe groups are made up a handful of malcontents and misfits. While the press loves to give these guys a headline, the reality is much more mundane. The thing that was driving much of the militia movement in the south east was the Clinton Administration’s reading of the Second Amendment.
The Supreme Court has put a leash on the gun abolitionists. Fantasies of black helicopters and storm troopers are fading by the minute. The Bible thumping gun toting heartland that is so alien to Obama is relatively content. No rebellion this year.
What part of Earth do you live in? The "fantasies" you speak of are still very much alive. There is not content in the heartland. Surely you don't think the NRA says "OK, we can have guns" and then shut their doors, do you?
There may not be a rebellion this year, but before January 20,2009, depending....
It's too early in the morning to form clear thoughts but I have to say that I'm Sorry MF, no dice. Rebellion is fermented like a fine wine or popped like a shaken soda can. You need a number of ingredients for any kind of rebellion and they all have to be present in the right environment otherwise nothing happens. There have been mini rebellion-like protests in the past in the form of riots.
First, you have to have a disafected class that feels powerless. Then you need to have an event that makes people say, ENOUGH! on an emotional level. Saying enough! on an intellectual basis does not get you a riot in America because Americans have the freedoms to assemble, petition, speak and vote. These act as release valves for public discontent on an intellectual level and when implemented correctly, can cause rapid change.
The right to bear arms is an emotional release valve, in that it provides people with the idea that if it "get's too bad" or "they start coming for me" then they have the power to do something. Freedom of religion also provides a powerful vent to negative emotions.
While you may argue that the ingredients for revolution are there, I'll tell you that they have been there my entire adult life and probably much longer. However, until those ingredients are put together in the right way and in the right amount of time, nothing is going to happen.
Finally, the 60's showed everyone that the power to change the course of human events does not always require a gun.
But the course of human events was changed by a gun 3 times in the 60's.
I am in total agreement with all you said. The elements are there, the organization is not. Some riots/rebellions could occur. Will they lead to larger insurrection, I don't know. If individuals think before blindly following a pied piper, then probably not. Unfortunately, in my opinion, they will not think, and follow him.
Times have changed since the 60's, for the worse in my opinion. _________________ A man should never wear a hat that has more character than he does.
Joined: Sep 03, 2007 Posts: 637 Location: Sunny Virginia, USA
Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 7:09 pm Post subject: Re: Why America will break apart-What Cheap energy has done.
Muckingfess wrote:
jlw61 wrote:
Finally, the 60's showed everyone that the power to change the course of human events does not always require a gun.
But the course of human events was changed by a gun 3 times in the 60's.
Actully, in America, it changed it a few more than that. Malcom X is one that I can think of off the bat. I'm sure there is one or two others to consider, but yes, like I said, not always require a gun.
Quote:
I am in total agreement with all you said. The elements are there, the organization is not. Some riots/rebellions could occur. Will they lead to larger insurrection, I don't know. If individuals think before blindly following a pied piper, then probably not. Unfortunately, in my opinion, they will not think, and follow him.
And that is the danger of emotion. If people are swept away by emotion, anything can happen, and usually for the worse. If a suitable piper, as you say, appears at the right time with full media support, I would have agree with your estimation. _________________ When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
Joined: Jul 04, 2008 Posts: 233 Location: Europe: European Historian
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:18 am Post subject: Re: Why America will break apart-What Cheap energy has done.
Let me make something clear that most of you fail to see.....
As the dollar goes so goes the nation..
Their will be no money....no money, or very very little of it "think Weirmer Germany" no $$ for basics, for roads, for schools, for transports, for welfare, for firemen, for local police, for basic infastructor..ect...the state and federal government will have little tax revenues to maintain itself "Kunstler says it well...he was asked about the US becoming Big Brother...he replied and said..no in the years ahead the USA will be lucky to answer the phones".
Once the currency crashes the USA will take on a whole new look. I expect peak oil, Stock-Housing crash, derivate market etc...to lead to a dollar crash "its already lost 40% of its yr 2,000 value"
In the past 5 depressions that hit the USA...one thing that helped the US was it had a solid currency "backed mainly in gold" it no longer has that to fall back on and support.
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1985 Location: Australia
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 7:24 am Post subject: Re: Why America will break apart-What Cheap energy has done.
Quote:
Their will be no money....no money, or very very little of it "think Weirmer Germany" no $$ for basics, for roads, for schools, for transports, for welfare, for firemen, for local police, for basic infastructor..ect...the state and federal government will have little tax revenues to maintain itself "Kunstler says it well...he was asked about the US becoming Big Brother...he replied and said..no in the years ahead the USA will be lucky to answer the phones".
Are you a historian as it says under your avatar?
I'm a bit surprised in that case you got Weimar so wrong. I hope that was a typo. (As you can read I am getting a bit suspicous... )
Anyway, I am wondering if you can substantiate the above a bit more. How come a government that is causing hyper inflation and monetizes any amount of debt, cannot afford firemen, police etc.
Was there some need for the goverment to seem thrifty although money supply went out of control?
Do you know this was a fact in Germany? Any source you can point to? _________________ It's not a bailout, it's a buy-in" - Nancy Pelosi
Joined: Jun 26, 2007 Posts: 1461 Location: The Canada of America
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:05 pm Post subject: Re: Why America will break apart-What Cheap energy has done.
Micki wrote:
How come a government that is causing hyper inflation and monetizes any amount of debt, cannot afford firemen, police etc.
Was there some need for the goverment to seem thrifty although money supply went out of control?
Since you're talking about "debt" as money the United States doesn't have, then you're depending on foreigners being willing to accept the US dollar as a token of that debt. That's why there's been no need for thrift on the part of the US government and its people, either. There have always been foreigners willing to take the bills, the ink still wet and unbacked by anything, in exchange for real goods and services. The moment that ceases to be true, then the US will, by and large, not be able to do, buy, or go anywhere outside of itself. You're already seeing reluctance in the Gulf States to retain dollar pegs or even to accept US dollars for oil. The Fed keeps cranking them out, devaluing the debt and raising inflation in any country pegged to the dollar... but only to the benefit of the United States. Why should I sell you a dollar's worth of oil, only to have that dollar be worth 5% or 10% less in terms of purchasing power next year? You get a dollar's worth of oil from me, but somewhere down the line I get 90, 85, 70¢ worth of goods or property back from you for that "dollar" because you've been printing them and shovelling them out into the world with both hands in the meantime. People are really getting fed up with that game and they're on the brink of abandoning it for something more solid... something that doesn't make them feel like laughable chumps. _________________ I can has cheezburger?
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 6:47 pm Post subject: Re: Why America will break apart-What Cheap energy has done.
Those of you who think we will devolve into a barter economy might consider the legal tender act. Specifically it states that a refusal to accept green backs as payment for a debt renders that debt null and void.
We inflated our way out of the oil crunch of the seventies.
Normally bankers hate inflation. It devalues the debt they hold. As I recall, hyper inflation and pent up consumer demand are what ended the last depression. Roosevelt and his people were concerned about spending a few billion they didn’t have. They scaled back their spending and the depression rebounded. It was the Japanese that pulled out all the stops. When bankers got the idea that the Japanese might be kicking in the door, they got on board with deficit spending for weapons systems. Our industrial capacity and our economy exploded.
Today we have a different bird. On one hand we have the shrinking portfolios on Wall Street. That is a contraction of the money supply. On the other you have a plummeting housing market. That is another contraction. Now we are seeing idled factories and layoffs. That is yet another contraction. All of these things mimic the 1929 depression. What is different this time is that the central banks are screaming for more money which should be expanding the money supply and we have peak oil.
The federal government more than likely will implement depression era programs to cycle money back through workers’ wallets. In those days it was called priming the pump a euphemism those without running water easily fathomed.
The new twist is dwindling oil supplies. Lack of energy would impede further expansion of federalism and may in fact cause it to recede a bit. It is real hard to suppress moon shine stills and weed patches from a train. The government might find it more beneficial to keep its dwindling fuel supplies for its A10 Warthogs.
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1985 Location: Australia
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 6:59 pm Post subject: Re: Why America will break apart-What Cheap energy has done.
Quote:
Those of you who think we will devolve into a barter economy might consider the legal tender act. Specifically it states that a refusal to accept green backs as payment for a debt renders that debt null and void.
A barter economy would obviously evolve parallell to the normal economy. I.e. legal tender would still, as you point out, be needed for payment of debts etc. But in parallell to this you would see increase in barter trades, where people simply don't think it is worth holding the paper even in the interum. i.e Hungary for instance had a period when prices were trippling every day. So holding the paper money even for a day would have been disasterous. _________________ It's not a bailout, it's a buy-in" - Nancy Pelosi
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