How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 9:37 am Post subject: Cantarell Esta Muriendo (. . . is dying)
Quote:
Production at the Gulf of Mexico development dropped 34 percent in May from a year earlier, the biggest decline since October 1995, according to data compiled by the government and Bloomberg. That was when Hurricane Roxanne's 131 miles-per-hour (114-knot) winds shut down offshore wells for a week.
Wow. That is a ridiculous number. That is doomer porn zombie food shock the DSEs type number.
Well, maybe not shock the DSEs, but certainly the first two. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5347 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 10:16 am Post subject: Re: Cantarell Esta Muriendo (. . . is dying)
David Shields, also quoted in the lead Bloomberg article above, is the number one expert on the decline of Cantarell.
Here is what he said recently, transalted from Spanish. While Mexico may continue to export crude until the 'distant' year 2012, it may be become a net importer by 2010 - being that the amount of its diesel and gasoline imports are increasing rapidly.
Quote:
July 3, 2008
Mexico: Energy Analyst David Shields Sees 'Difficult Scenario' Ahead For Pemex
The future outlook for petroleum revenue "does not look good," because "we have already spent our petroleum wealth" by overexploitingCantarell, and "before 2012 Mexican Petroleum (Pemex) will be a net importer of hydrocarbons, i.e., its export volume will not offset the value of itsimports. But the country will be a net importer earlier, because we need toinclude private imports. Therefore, "the best thing would be to prepare ourselves to stop being an oil exporting country and be aware of the implications for the public finances."
I want to come back to this reflection by Rogelio GascaNeri, expressed in the Senate of the Republic last week, because it describes the exact magnitude of a problem that many experts still do not want tobelieve, at a time when Pemex is the ball in a political game in the middle ofa power struggle. The reason why many people are reluctant to believe that theoutlook could be so negative is the fact that the official discourse denies it.
Pemex says that crude oil production will remain close to 3million barrels per day (and a few months ago it was saying 3.2 million), but the reality is that it has already dropped to 2.8 million and continues tofall. With the lack of easily extractable discoveries, everything indicates thatit will drop to between 1.9 million and 2.2 million by 2012. Theoverexploitation of the other oil fields will not solve the problem, but rather will worsen it. And the new refineries (if it makes sense to build any) willhave to process imported crude.
We are facing a typical case of a country that has reached and passed the zenith or "peak" of its oil production, so there is no money tosolve the problem. Today's oil prices hide the deterioration of the productionand export indicators, but when there is no longer any oil to export, oil prices will no longer get us out of this mess, but rather the opposite will occur.
For some time now, the official production forecasts havebeen very unreliable. Just four years ago, Pemex was predicting that crude oilproduction in 2008 would be 4.3 million barrels per day, when it is 2.8 milliontoday. The difference between those figures - a huge margin of error, understandable only because of the eagerness to send positive messages to theoil market - is equivalent to the total production of Libya or Algeria, whichare OPEC member countries.
So, why not believe that it could decrease by an additional 1 million barrels per day? A drop of that magnitude at the price of $110 perbarrel, according to Gasca's calculations, is equivalent to $40 billion a year,5% of GDP, and almost 20% of federal expenditures. In 2012, "with production at 2 million barrels per day and dropping, we will have to pay for the Pidiregas [Deferred Spending Investment Projects] and the labor liabilities. When this happens, the solution will be to try to implement another fiscal reform, but that will be a hard row to hoe."
Mexico City Reforma
http://www.reforma.com/ _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 10:30 am Post subject: Re: Cantarell Esta Muriendo (. . . is dying)
I have, in fact, imagined Ghawar in such a decline.
I've been thinking (and posting) for some time that I think KSA will top 10% decline when the ball gets rolling.
We may never know it, but I think that's what will happen.
The old models of decline don't work well because we've gotten so much better at forcing production. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 10:57 am Post subject: Re: Cantarell Esta Muriendo (. . . is dying)
Quote:
July 7 (Bloomberg) -- Crude output from Mexico's Cantarell, the world's third-largest oil field, is falling at the fastest pace in 12 years as investment limits keep state-owned Petroleos Mexicanos from fully exploiting deposits and finding new ones.
from the same bloomberg article.
glossing over things like that is rather... well it gives the appearance of a certain bias.
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:51 am Post subject: Re: Cantarell Esta Muriendo (. . . is dying)
nobodypanic wrote:
Quote:
July 7 (Bloomberg) -- Crude output from Mexico's Cantarell, the world's third-largest oil field, is falling at the fastest pace in 12 years as investment limits keep state-owned Petroleos Mexicanos from fully exploiting deposits and finding new ones.
from the same bloomberg article.
glossing over things like that is rather... well it gives the appearance of a certain bias.
34% in a year is massive. I doubt any amount of investment could reverse that level of decline.
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:57 am Post subject: Re: Cantarell Esta Muriendo (. . . is dying)
I can't qualify reports I've gotten from expat service company hands but between sips of Lone Star beer they describe the following: the nitrogen that Pemex has been injecting for 10 years to keep the reservoirs pressured up and flowing is starting to be produced with the oil (an inevitablility). Normally an operator would shutin such wells to maintain the pressure bank even though it means loosing the oil production from those wells. Instead, they continue producing the oil and N2 which reduces the pressure bank which, in turn, hurts ultimate recovery. Pretty much the same with all secondary recover efforts: the faster you produce the lower the ultimate recovery. Your basic rock and hard place.
Regarding becoming a net importer I wonder to what degree. Last I heard oil provided the gov't with 60% of its income. As that dries up how are they going to pay for imports. Much of the country exists now with substantial flour subsudies. I remember about 30 years ago when the Mex gov't tried to cut back on the flour (tortilla) subsidy and there were riots and a few deaths. It's not difficult to imagine immigration northward becoming more a matter of survival then economic betterment.
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 12:03 pm Post subject: Re: Cantarell Esta Muriendo (. . . is dying)
Interfector wrote:
nobodypanic wrote:
Quote:
July 7 (Bloomberg) -- Crude output from Mexico's Cantarell, the world's third-largest oil field, is falling at the fastest pace in 12 years as investment limits keep state-owned Petroleos Mexicanos from fully exploiting deposits and finding new ones.
from the same bloomberg article.
glossing over things like that is rather... well it gives the appearance of a certain bias.
34% in a year is massive. I doubt any amount of investment could reverse that level of decline.
right. you don't have to try and make it look worse than it is.
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 1:16 pm Post subject: Re: Cantarell Esta Muriendo (. . . is dying)
nobodypanic wrote:
Quote:
July 7 (Bloomberg) -- Crude output from Mexico's Cantarell, the world's third-largest oil field, is falling at the fastest pace in 12 years as investment limits keep state-owned Petroleos Mexicanos from fully exploiting deposits and finding new ones.
from the same bloomberg article.
glossing over things like that is rather... well it gives the appearance of a certain bias.
Nobodypanic, did you seriously direct the above response to me?
I mean, seriously?
You have got to be kidding.
I glossed over nothing. I didn't even mention it - I expect any intelligent adult to read the article.
Bias?
What are you talking about? What the hell interest could I possibly have in it either way?
The number speaks for itself. I couldn't give a rat's ass about whether investment would help or not. It's not there, so it does not matter.
Finally, it's my opinion that BB is still throwing in those b-llsh-t lines like the one you quoted to keep the DSEs thinking that . . .
. . . there IS a solution.
It's a crock of crap. They can invest all they want, but it won't change much of anything.
It's game over. Cantarell is in its death throes, and bringing in an English speaking or Dutch speaking group of surgeons will do absolutely nothing other than, maybe, slow the rate of death.
So save your accusations of bias. I quoted the most interesting part of the article, and I linked to it.
34% decline rate - which is HUGE news. Huge, staggering, and frightening.
And your response - "you're glossing over the part about it's not so bad."
Whatever - I'm a doomer because I get it, and I don't look for the little glittery sequins sparkling from the steaming turd load the dog dropped in the front room carpet because he ate a kid's doll earlier that day - I leave that job to you. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 1:38 pm Post subject: Re: Cantarell Esta Muriendo (. . . is dying)
Actually panic I'm not a doomer at all. But I think Cashmere may actually be a little too optimistic. Even though I've been a petroleum geologist for over 30 years I don't have the details on Cantarell and thus can't pound the table. But I've worked projects like this and they are completely unpredictable with respect to the nitrogen breakthrough (as it is called). It can be modeled but that's just an educated guess. You don't really know how far out the end is until you get close. But when you do get close to the end it's typically not a slow decline. But given it'sa unique size it might hang in there better than many. The best analogy I can give is filling a glass from a hole in the bottom. Every goes Ok until you reach the top. But then it's not a little dribble but the whole top overflows at once. This is really a terrible analogy but reservoir dynamics is one of the most complex area in the oil patch.
What has really hurt Pemex's ability to replace Cantarell is the fact that they've been routinely stripped of their cashflow by the gov't. In the Deep Water Gulf of Mexico very large fields are being developed on the US side of the border. Even if Pemex were allowed to keep some money it would take at least 10 years to catch up. But as Cantarell depletes the gov't will probably snatch the money away even faster. The new Mex Prez has tried to open up the possiblility of international companies coming in to help with capital/technology. But the leftests once actually shut down their Congress in a protest just over the possibility of such discussions.
Even though life for many Mexicans is far below US standards it may become all the worse very soon. Migration to the north may become more a matter of survival (in absolute terms of life and death) than just looking for a better life as it is now.
Joined: Apr 27, 2007 Posts: 4236 Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 1:41 pm Post subject: Re: Cantarell Esta Muriendo (. . . is dying)
Cashmere wrote:
nobodypanic wrote:
Quote:
July 7 (Bloomberg) -- Crude output from Mexico's Cantarell, the world's third-largest oil field, is falling at the fastest pace in 12 years as investment limits keep state-owned Petroleos Mexicanos from fully exploiting deposits and finding new ones.
from the same bloomberg article.
glossing over things like that is rather... well it gives the appearance of a certain bias.
Nobodypanic, did you seriously direct the above response to me?
I mean, seriously?
You have got to be kidding.
I glossed over nothing. I didn't even mention it - I expect any intelligent adult to read the article.
Bias?
What are you talking about? What the hell interest could I possibly have in it either way?
The number speaks for itself. I couldn't give a rat's ass about whether investment would help or not. It's not there, so it does not matter.
Finally, it's my opinion that BB is still throwing in those b-llsh-t lines like the one you quoted to keep the DSEs thinking that . . .
. . . there IS a solution.
It's a crock of crap. They can invest all they want, but it won't change much of anything.
It's game over. Cantarell is in its death throes, and bringing in an English speaking or Dutch speaking group of surgeons will do absolutely nothing other than, maybe, slow the rate of death.
So save your accusations of bias. I quoted the most interesting part of the article, and I linked to it.
34% decline rate - which is HUGE news. Huge, staggering, and frightening.
And your response - "you're glossing over the part about it's not so bad."
Whatever - I'm a doomer because I get it, and I don't look for the little glittery sequins sparkling from the steaming turd load the dog dropped in the front room carpet because he ate a kid's doll earlier that day - I leave that job to you.
DUDE are YOU ME?? !!
+1 _________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 2:24 pm Post subject: Re: Cantarell Esta Muriendo (. . . is dying)
Cashmere wrote:
Whatever - I'm a doomer because I get it, and I don't look for the little glittery sequins sparkling from the steaming turd load the dog dropped in the front room carpet because he ate a kid's doll earlier that day - I leave that job to you.
Mind if I use that in my quote line _________________ Tired of high gas prices? Then stop driving to work, duh..... Learn to Work from home
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Then stop driving to work, duh..... 
