Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 12:54 am Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?
TreeFarmer wrote:
As far as the little side thread going on about investment adivce, my thouhgts have always been to take advice from people who have proven over time they can make and hang on to money.
I have this paranoid theory that those who "truly" know how to invest are in reality ridiculously introverted people who have very few friends and rarely do they ever spend time talking to other people about investing. Basically they are loners. Have you ever noticed that people like Warren Buffet and George Soros do NOT have their own TV show? There's a reason why, they are true investors and they have boring personalities.
"TRUE" Investors are NOT entertainers or sales people.
You can spend your entire life and never see a "true" investor.
And even if you did you may never know because chances are they have no interest in opening up their mouth and telling you.
Joined: Oct 25, 2004 Posts: 1344 Location: Stalag 13
Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 1:07 am Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?
Cashmere wrote:
Don't let every 5 or 10 dollar drop sway you.
When the price gets low enough, there is going to be a major spike back up.
Big players out there are licking their chops waiting to sniff bottom of dip. When they sniff - bam.
There are market players and forces well beyond what we can imagine.
Who knows, maybe there is motivation to suppress price to get short interest built for later squeezing.
In the end, oil moves up. If you have a 2 month long position, worry. If you have a 2 year long position, "what, me worry?"
I totally agree with you, Cashmere. It seems that a lot new members here can't see the big picture. Check out this post I made in a different thread:
Hogan wrote:
Not to worry. After a major price run-up, oil price usually drops back down some. But then again shoots up and starts breaking new records soon after that. 3 steps forward, one step back. $150 oil by the end of next week. I laugh my a$$ off when I see cornucopians say this is all a price bubble that's about to pop. I don't understand how some people can stay in denial with so much evidence to the contrary. Oh well.
*edit*
Anyone see a trend in the oil price chart below? Notice how there always a price drop before the next record-breaking rally? Each recent rally has increased oil prices by about $10 from each previous record. Next price rally should max out at perhaps $155 and then fall some again. And then after that, $165. Etc, Etc. Seems that price rallies last about 4 weeks on average lately. So perhaps we can expect about an $10 oil price increase per month average from now on. This would theoretically put the price of oil at about $200 by December 2008 if prices continue following this current trend. By the way, oil is already up a dollar again to about $137.
Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 1:15 am Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?
Who's the chick? She looks like a page out of a JCPenney catalog.
I have no faith in anyone who's saying "buy this and you'll make lots of money." There are some folks like The Market Guys and Alexander Elder who are approaching it more from a stand point of teaching you about technical analysis, money management, trader psychology, basically teaching you the skills you need to become a trader. That strikes me as being much more legitimate.
I think there's good information out there. It doesn't come from a place of "here's what to buy." It comes from a place of "here's how to figure out what to buy." _________________ "So while you sit and whistle Dixie with your money and your power.
I can hear the flowers a-growin in the rubble of the towers.
I hear leaders quit their lying
I hear babies quit their crying.
I hear soldiers quit their dying, one and all." - OCMS
She is currently the host of "The Suze Orman Show" on CNBC. She has written six consecutive New York Times Best Sellers, and has written, co-produced, and hosted six PBS specials based on her New York Times bestselling books, and is the single most successful fund raiser in the history of public television. Similar programs she hosts on QVC, the leading home shopping network, also place her as the top seller. In 2004 and 2006 Orman won two daytime Emmy Awards in the category of Outstanding Service Show Host for her PBS Specials. Over her television career she has won more Gracie awards (5) than anyone in the 33 year history of these awards. In 2008, she was selected by TIME Magazine as one of the most influential people in the world.
Wikipedia entry _________________ Nature is complete because it does not serve itself.
The sage places himself after and finds himself before,
Ignores his desire and finds himself content.
He is complete because he does not serve himself. -Lao Tze
Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 1:22 am Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?
smallpoxgirl wrote:
Who's the chick? She looks like a page out of a JCPenney catalog.
Suze Orman, she has her own TV show.
BTW having a TV show makes me lose respect for someone as an investor. Once a person crosses that line I see them as an entertainer and not an investor.
maybe I'm weird but that's just my opinion.
Joined: Jun 29, 2008 Posts: 82 Location: San Luis Obispo, CA / San Jose, CA
Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 1:24 am Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?
cube wrote:
TreeFarmer wrote:
As far as the little side thread going on about investment adivce, my thouhgts have always been to take advice from people who have proven over time they can make and hang on to money.
I have this paranoid theory that those who "truly" know how to invest are in reality ridiculously introverted people who have very few friends and rarely do they ever spend time talking to other people about investing. Basically they are loners. Have you ever noticed that people like Warren Buffet and George Soros do NOT have their own TV show? There's a reason why, they are true investors and they have boring personalities.
Despite his FAUX NEWS style media appeal Cramer agrees on a financial collapse...
www.cnbc.com :
In a somewhat solemn moment, Cramer brings up a problem lurking in the market: stocks dropping without a sound. There's plenty of noise about certain companies because someone said this or that, but what of the ones that sink quietly? Lately, there are more of these companies going quietly into the night: banks, brokers, homebuilders -- the trifecta (or "Achilles' heel" per Cramer's label) of the down market. These companies are failing not because of things said, but because of things not said -- none of the right people are saying the right things.
Not all doom and gloom, Cramer offers hope that today's explosive rally continues through tomorrow. But despite the sudden recovery, Cramer fears an imminent financial collapse -- and not a small one, but one on the scale of big money
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 4319 Location: Graceland
Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 6:40 am Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?
To add to what cube is saying, to me the skilled investor is someone who can filter out a tremendous amount of market and other "noise" and see value and trends that are very subtle.
Trying to be an entertaining talking head or a "people person" sales representative almost guarantees that the person is NOT skilled at filtering noise, since their very existence is a large source of the noise. _________________
Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 6:42 am Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?
how low will it go.....as low as it can get until Iran sucessfully tests ballistic missles that can hit Isreal ,parts of Eurpe and any US base in the middle east...like the story that just broke. Buy energy on pull backs. This is your opportunity.
Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 6:58 am Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?
cube wrote:
Jim Cramer and his TV show has absolutely nothing to do with smart investing.
Cramer's a mouthpiece for Goldman Sachs. His show is simply a 'pump-n-dump' scheme to peddle their stock picks and unload into suckers' hands.
Notice too, they often target the young crowd by taking the show to college and university campuses. The show is promoting the stock market as a whole and convincing people to day-trade (or trade frequently). This benefits the Wall Street cronies.
If you insist on making choices based on Cramer, do the opposite of what he says. He's a great contrarian indicator.
Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 9:41 am Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?
cube wrote:
Suze Orman, she has her own TV show.
Ahh. The things you miss not having a TV.
Ohh well. I guess I'll deal. _________________ "So while you sit and whistle Dixie with your money and your power.
I can hear the flowers a-growin in the rubble of the towers.
I hear leaders quit their lying
I hear babies quit their crying.
I hear soldiers quit their dying, one and all." - OCMS
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Check out this post I made in a different thread:
