For a minute there I thought I had to get off my couch, when all the while the fact is we don't have to do anything much but keep things afloat for just a few decades more! In fact, we'd best shut up about PO, because if our offspring finds out we knew about it all along, they'll turn and wring our necks come 2036!
Joined: May 20, 2008 Posts: 382 Location: I have a whole ward
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 6:41 pm Post subject: Are We in the Peak of an Oil Bubble?
"Since 2003, worldwide oil prices have quadrupled. According to a new study, the price of oil is rising at a faster-than-exponential rate, and cannot be sustained. In other words, we’re in the midst of an oil bubble, say researchers Didier Sornette and Ryan Woodard of ETH Zurich in Switzerland and Wei-Xing Zhou of the East China University of Science and Technology in Shanghai, China."
"A comparison of supply and demand showed that, most recently, supply has been exceeding demand by more than a half million barrels per day. Meanwhile, the price continues to increase. Since it appears that the supply-demand balance has only a small effect on the price of oil, the researchers suggest that a major effect lies elsewhere. They point out several reasons why speculation, fed on rumors of rising oil scarcity, may be the positive feedback causing high oil prices."
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 8:21 pm Post subject: Re: Are We in the Peak of an Oil Bubble?
AlexdeLarge wrote:
Since 2003, worldwide oil prices have quadrupled. According to a new study, the price of oil is rising at a faster-than-exponential rate, and cannot be sustained. In other words, we’re in the midst of an oil bubble, say researchers Didier Sornette and Ryan Woodard of ETH Zurich in Switzerland and Wei-Xing Zhou of the East China University of Science and Technology in Shanghai, China.
A comparison of supply and demand showed that, most recently, supply has been exceeding demand by more than a half million barrels per day. Meanwhile, the price continues to increase. Since it appears that the supply-demand balance has only a small effect on the price of oil, the researchers suggest that a major effect lies elsewhere. They point out several reasons why speculation, fed on rumors of rising oil scarcity, may be the positive feedback causing high oil prices.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1619 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 8:29 pm Post subject: Re: Are We in the Peak of an Oil Bubble?
AlexdeLarge wrote:
A comparison of supply and demand showed that, most recently, supply has been exceeding demand by more than a half million barrels per day.
Their own chart belies this statement. It sure looks like demand is exceeding supply by more than 1mb/d. What are they smoking? _________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 8:31 pm Post subject: Re: Are We in the Peak of an Oil Bubble?
Quote:
According to a new study, the price of oil is rising at a faster-than-exponential rate
Jesus H.
Are people so stupid that they will take seriously anybody who would make such an imbecilic, mathematically impossible comment? _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 9:12 pm Post subject: Re: Are We in the Peak of an Oil Bubble?
Cashmere wrote:
Quote:
According to a new study, the price of oil is rising at a faster-than-exponential rate
Jesus H.
Are people so stupid that they will take seriously anybody who would make such an imbecilic, mathematically impossible comment?
It's as stupid as saying something's growing at an exponential rate in the first place. What's actually useful is a function that describes the rate of growth compared to other things precisely. _________________
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 10:49 pm Post subject: Re: Are We in the Peak of an Oil Bubble?
yesplease wrote:
Cashmere wrote:
Quote:
According to a new study, the price of oil is rising at a faster-than-exponential rate
Jesus H.
Are people so stupid that they will take seriously anybody who would make such an imbecilic, mathematically impossible comment?
It's as stupid as saying something's growing at an exponential rate in the first place. What's actually useful is a function that describes the rate of growth compared to other things precisely.
Well, not to pick nits, but the concept of "growing exponentially" does have meaning unto itself. It means, IMO, growing faster than linearly.
What is completely stupid is saying something is growing "faster than exponentially".
Just incredibly ignorant. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Joined: Jun 13, 2007 Posts: 3343 Location: Minniesotuh
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 10:57 pm Post subject: Re: Are We in the Peak of an Oil Bubble?
Bubble, shmubble.
There's only so much oil. Everybody is scrambling to get control of the last little bits, or make profits on it.
Nothing is going to stop the increasing consumption of it. _________________ "RRrrruuuunnnn!!!" ~Apocalypto
Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 12:15 am Post subject: Re: Are We in the Peak of an Oil Bubble?
Cashmere wrote:
Well, not to pick nits, but the concept of "growing exponentially" does have meaning unto itself. It means, IMO, growing faster than linearly.
That depends on the exponent, doesn't it. I mean, e^-Nx over some time period can be exponential growth, for instance what people call negative population growth.
Cashmere wrote:
What is completely stupid is saying something is growing "faster than exponentially".
Just incredibly ignorant.
It's only as stupid as using "exponential growth" in the first place. All they are saying is that oil's growth in price is faster than what most have coined as "exponential growth". For instance if inflation, or copper prices, or some amalgam of price increase we tend to see, then the growth in oil prices are proceeding at a greater rate than what we tend to se.
Quote:
“There is no consensus. One standard definition is ‘exponential growth of price.’ But exponential growth of price is normal in economics, because it just corresponds to a constant growth rate. Our definition is ‘faster-than-exponential' growth of the price, which is necessarily unsustainable.”
Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 11:21 am Post subject: Re: Are We in the Peak of an Oil Bubble?
Thread's title is misleading in the sense that a bubble must pop like every bubbles, which leads to recession, later to business as usual.
Oil is not a commodity like apples, it's the blood of industrial civilization. So yes, the oil bubble will pop just like any bubble, but it will pop with capitalism!
There won't be any "business as usual" scenario if oil gets down to 40$ something. Oil getting down to double digits will be associated with a world depression or economic collapse of Chindia, which IMHO will happen very soon (meaning 2010).
Well, all that to say that I want this bubble to last as long as possible, which means enjoying today life. The good old days!
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
I mean, e^-Nx over some time period can be exponential growth, for instance what people call 
