I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 11:13 pm Post subject: Powering Down to Core Consumption
Without a major upheaval in society with regards to how we do things, just have far can we pare down and keep things a afloat?
Take my business as a "general contractor". I have already pared down my gasoline use to "core consumption."
What did I cut out? Driving to lunch.
My business dictates how much gasoline I use, not me. While many people will cut "driving to lunch" uses from their gasoline budgets, I suspect "core consumption" to be most of their use.
Say what? 90%
My point is, I don't think demand destruction is going to go very far without causing an economic implosion.
We are more dependent upon the car, A/C and toasty warm winter mornings than ever before.
And the Chinese have big round smiling faces at the mere thought of it. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: Aug 03, 2007 Posts: 4398 Location: Boston Suburbs
Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2008 12:29 am Post subject: Re: Powering Down to Core Consumption
MonteQuest wrote:
Take my business as a "general contractor". I have already pared down my gasoline use to "core consumption."
It's not your job to hide your overhead from your clients. Raise your rates. Everyone's in the same boat. Same deal with truckers and the airlines. _________________ As long as I am around, there are no worries we have reached "Peak Words"
Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2008 3:47 am Post subject: Re: Powering Down to Core Consumption
mos6507 wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
Take my business as a "general contractor". I have already pared down my gasoline use to "core consumption."
It's not your job to hide your overhead from your clients. Raise your rates.
I've had to do that. And I presume any number of other people whose jobs unavoidably involve travel have too. I expect it will impact negatively eventually- people will use my services less, both because I'm more expensive than I used to be, and because they've got less to spend cos the plumber, electrician, builder etc etc are all charging more too(and cos their own petrol, food and other basic living costs have gone up as well). It's a nasty little situation, heading in to a recession I would like to be able to quote lower to maintain business, but it's not an option.
Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2008 6:00 am Post subject: Re: Powering Down to Core Consumption
MonteQuest wrote:
My point is, I don't think demand destruction is going to go very far without causing an economic implosion.
Shouldn't we accept the next depression? It's not really avoidable. If we are to powerdown as individuals, YES, it is going to have economic implications. But even if we don't powerdown those same economic processes are likely to occur--just later.
Economic depression is part of the grand powerdown.
ETA
My initial thought was that you pointed out that powerdown will cause an economic implosion to discourage powerdown, but that's not your intent, right? _________________ ~Laura
"If you weren't smart enough to plan ahead then Doom on you!" ~Dodo bird
Joined: Sep 29, 2004 Posts: 2330 Location: Pennsylvania, USA
Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2008 6:21 am Post subject: Re: Powering Down to Core Consumption
Powering down = employment down. With a huge reduction in interstate and global commerce, you are left with making a living on local wealth generation. In America, our wealth streams in from all over the world, so that means a huge readjustment and massive unemployment on a heretofore, never seen, scale.
Reading the pre-oil history of my own town is interesting. The local economy was made up of businesses which manufactured locally, using local resources and those products were loaded onto trains headed for the northeastern cities, such as NYC, which is about 100 miles away. The local economy back then started with shipping coal via train into NYC and Philly where it was used in factories to make products. Quickly, people built factories locally, shipping their finished products via train.
My conclusion is that to have an economy, you need a transit system. Otherwise, you don't have much of an economy beyond small scale farming and cottage industries. It's not all bad for America. We began as and always have been primarily an agricultural nation and the demand for food will never go away. America still has a larger amount of acreage per capita than most nations. China is currently in a particularly bad situation with that ratio, which will mean mass starvation in the future, IMO.
A good business in the future; recycling dead bodies. Soylent Green, here we come. _________________ "That's the problem with mercy, kid... It just ain't professional" - Fast Eddie, The Color of Money
Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2008 7:35 am Post subject: Re: Powering Down to Core Consumption
MonteQuest wrote:
Without a major upheaval in society with regards to how we do things, just have far can we pare down and keep things a afloat?
Take my business as a "general contractor". I have already pared down my gasoline use to "core consumption."
What did I cut out? Driving to lunch.
My business dictates how much gasoline I use, not me. While many people will cut "driving to lunch" uses from their gasoline budgets, I suspect "core consumption" to be most of their use.
Say what? 90%
My point is, I don't think demand destruction is going to go very far without causing an economic implosion.
We are more dependent upon the car, A/C and toasty warm winter mornings than ever before.
And the Chinese have big round smiling faces at the mere thought of it.
Well, people need their drug. Our society is built on crude.
The fact is just like it takes a certain amount of money to 'just live' so it goes with crude.
Even if we cut out the extra crude usage and have zero fun and waste, we still need to consume a certain amount of crude to just live. (in our modern society).
And even if we burn no crude, petrochemicals will burn it for us if we are a consumer and if we eat food.
Now if our society become less complex then it will take less crude to live.
But we will not be living at the same complexity as we do now. And our retirement funds will reflect this as we power down to our less complex future.
As you pointed out in "I don't think demand destruction is going to go very far without causing an economic implosion. "
Demand destruction is another pipe dream they throw at us. They love to use it at CNBC, but when it comes to uttering the words 'Peak Oil" it is taboo.,
We need demand destruction and new oil finds just to stand still.
We need demand destruction and new oil finds to replace the oil wells that are being depleted.
People seem to think the old wells will keep pumping forever. The trouble is all the easy oil has beef found. Now all we have is hard to get stuff or a little of high sulfur, sour crude if we are lucky...and lately we put all our hopes in wringing the lasts drops of oil out of the sand and rocks. What addicts will do to get their fix!
But the sad reality is even with demand destruction and new oil finds we will hardly be able to keep pace with the ever declining crude oil supplies. And no I am not looking down on everyone, as I am an oil addict as well.
It is like pouring water from cup into a bathtub that has the drain pulled...we all know the outcome. If we used bucket to fill it - the tub is going to end up dry. Either we produce more than we use or not. And the trouble with fossil fuels is they have a finite life and that is the bottom line.
"If the public does think briefly about future oil supplies, the question usually asked is, "How long will oil last?" This is the wrong question. Oil will be extracted in some insignificant quantity perhaps 200 years from now. The critical question is: When does the peak of world oil production occur?" ~ Richard C. Duncan
So use it fast or use it slow...the outcome is the same.
Last edited by allenwrench on Thu Jul 10, 2008 8:15 am; edited 4 times in total
Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2008 8:02 am Post subject: Re: Powering Down to Core Consumption
Mominator wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
My point is, I don't think demand destruction is going to go very far without causing an economic implosion.
Shouldn't we accept the next depression? It's not really avoidable. If we are to powerdown as individuals, YES, it is going to have economic implications. But even if we don't powerdown those same economic processes are likely to occur--just later.
Economic depression is part of the grand powerdown.
ETA
My initial thought was that you pointed out that powerdown will cause an economic implosion to discourage powerdown, but that's not your intent, right?
Accept a depression?
Yes,
Accept what is and work with reality.
But a depression may seem like a nice dream as to what our world may turn out like.
When I question media / politicians about why they hide their head in the sand when it comes to PO most have no reply. It seems they think there is 'no upside' in this topic of peak oil since it can't be fixed.
The upside is in the preparation and a more manageable and orderly transition...less deaths. Then again, maybe the governments upside is in the deaths and having less mouths to have to feed?
Joined: Jun 30, 2005 Posts: 744 Location: northern California
Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2008 8:54 am Post subject: Re: Powering Down to Core Consumption
MonteQuest wrote:
Without a major upheaval in society with regards to how we do things, just have far can we pare down and keep things a afloat?...
What did I cut out? Driving to lunch...
Say what? 90%
My point is, I don't think demand destruction is going to go very far without causing an economic implosion.
I would say even less paring than to 90%. Presumably your "driving to lunch" meant dining out, right? If all those fellow lunch diners did the same, that restaurant will be SOL and soon. Even our most wasteful, unessential consumption is propping up the house of cards. The domino effect of that one cafe closing ripples through the entire community... _________________ "When men yield up the privilege of thinking, the last shadow of liberty quits the horizon."
Thomas Paine
Joined: Sep 08, 2005 Posts: 764 Location: Atlanta, GA
Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:17 am Post subject: Re: Powering Down to Core Consumption
MonteQuest wrote:
Without a major upheaval in society with regards to how we do things, just have far can we pare down and keep things a afloat?
--------
My point is, I don't think demand destruction is going to go very far without causing an economic implosion.
We are more dependent upon the car, A/C and toasty warm winter mornings than ever before.
And the Chinese have big round smiling faces at the mere thought of it.
We do have a model to compare this to, and that's the politically-induced peak of the late 70's and early 80's, which maxed out at something like 13% decline (correct me if I'm mistaken). Take a look at what we were going through at that time...12% + inflation, double-digit unemployment rates and mortgage rates rivaling those of standard credit card rates of today. And yet, people resisted the idea of conservation like crazy...I remember the attitudes of people myself. People did switch over to high mpg cars, but only when they could. As they are doing right now, people cut back on restaurants, vacations, and entertainment. Even the record industry was on its death bed back then...for a lot of people, buying records wasn't easy on the household budget.
So, in the short-term, for the first 10-15% decline in oil usage, that's what to be expected. Remember, the stock market did not exceed the 1966 peak until 1983, when cheap oil was already flowing back into economy (that's NOT going to happen this time!), which gives you an idea of the long-term economic impact of expensive oil.
The question is, how will we cope with the new numbers of unemployed? The ever-quickening decline in housing prices and the prospect of 20 million mortgage foreclosures over the next 5 years or so? What will become of the airlines when people simply quit flying? And Monte, you work in the construction field? Hope you have alternate plans to put into place, as you will likely not be doing contractor work for very much longer. If you and others in your field are forced to raise prices 20, 30, 40%, chances are that you'll be parking the pickup for good, real soon.
And this goes back to my original hypothesis that I made so long ago, that we will experience a bona-fide New Depression in the early decades of the 21 century...and although Peak Oil is the primary cause of it, people will never see it as such. They'll just see the fact that we're in a soul-crushing, cry me a river Depression, with no light to be seen at the end of the tunnel.
Okay folks, time to get a BIG ol' tub of buttered popcorn...what a show this is going to be! _________________ Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide...
...and the meek shall inherit the Earth!
Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:45 am Post subject: Re: Powering Down to Core Consumption
mos6507 wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
Take my business as a "general contractor". I have already pared down my gasoline use to "core consumption."
It's not your job to hide your overhead from your clients. Raise your rates. Everyone's in the same boat. Same deal with truckers and the airlines.
And how does raising my rates reduce my core consumption?
Hmm? _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:55 am Post subject: Re: Powering Down to Core Consumption
yesplease wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
What did I cut out? Driving to lunch.
My business dictates how much gasoline I use, not me.
How so? Is there something that makes changing your driving habits and/or vehicle impossible?
How far I drive is dictated by the job. I have no control over that except to only take jobs close to home. Since 99% of my work comes from referrals, I don't have much choice there.
As to driving habits, I already drive slower and keep my vehicles tuned up and the tires properly inflated. (the latter BTW can save a lot of gasoline.)
Change vehicles? I have three, a pickup, a work van, and a Mazda Miata. All paid for and in great shape. The Miata only has 50,000 miles and is a 2001. It gets 26 mpg.
As to the trucks...to replace them would cost $80,000.
I can buy a lot of gas for $80,000. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:58 am Post subject: Re: Powering Down to Core Consumption
Mominator wrote:
ETA
My initial thought was that you pointed out that powerdown will cause an economic implosion to discourage powerdown, but that's not your intent, right?
No. My point was to stimulate discussion to debunk the notion that demand destruction is going to be a savior of sorts. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2008 12:06 pm Post subject: Re: Powering Down to Core Consumption
Kingcoal wrote:
Powering down = employment down.
Powering down = a reduction in the standard of living.
Which in many cases may well mean going from a culture of quantity to a culture of quality. It may end up a better world as we return to simpler, healthier and more community oriented lifestyles.
And rather than lay people off, cut wages so everyone can stay working.
Get machine jobs back to people. The decades to come will see many things that are now done by machines handed back over to human beings, for the eminently pragmatic reason that it will again be cheaper to feed, house, clothe, and train a human being to do those things than it will be to make, fuel, and maintain a machine to do them. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2008 12:10 pm Post subject: Re: Powering Down to Core Consumption
dunewalker wrote:
I would say even less paring than to 90%. Presumably your "driving to lunch" meant dining out, right? If all those fellow lunch diners did the same, that restaurant will be SOL and soon. Even our most wasteful, unessential consumption is propping up the house of cards. The domino effect of that one cafe closing ripples through the entire community...
Exactly the points I made in my Solutions in Isolation thread that can be found in PO discussion. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
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