The high priest of “peak oil” thinks...

allenwrench · Intermediate Crude Joined: Apr 23, 2008 Posts: 883

The high priest of “peak oil” thinks world oil output can now only decline

http://www.economist.com/people/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11702995

Nice the Econ is printing the words PO. I wrote them last year and nothing. Better late than never

But why call names Econ...High priest??

Dismissing peak oil as 'just a theory' is an easy and quick way to rebut PO.

If the question is when we will peak - yes we can only theorize.

If the question is if we will peak - then it is not a theory and only a question of time.

No one knows the exact peak date for world oil production, but we do know that time will come in the not so distant future. But finding the peak is not hard problem once we can look back on it by a few years...but we need some time to do it...again, only time will settle this debate.

And the possibility may be that we find another big discovery and the peak dates look more like a double top stock market chart than the drop over a cliff.

But all this does not really matter. The bottom line is we are running out of crude no matter how the hard the spin doctors try to masturbate the facts.

The fact that 'we have to estimate' reserves or useful life of anything says that the item in question does not have an infinite supply or life span.

I never argue with persons claiming that we have peaked already or others that claim the peak is 20 years away. To me they are both on the same page, just looking at different paragraphs.

But the person that thinks that the world can go on forever using 31,000,000,000 barrels a year of crude and never have to pay the bill with the eventual depletion of fossil fuels is just plain wrong.

"If the public does think briefly about future oil supplies, the question usually asked is, "How long will oil last?" This is the wrong question. Oil will be extracted in some insignificant quantity perhaps 200 years from now. The critical question is: When does the peak of world oil production occur?" ~ Richard C. Duncan

OilFinder2

What else do you expect Matt Simmons to say?
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Abundance - what a concept!

FrankRichards · Heavy Crude Joined: Oct 11, 2004 Posts: 104

DoomWarrior

OilFinder2

cbxer55

Serial_Worrier · Heavy Crude Joined: Jun 05, 2008 Posts: 233

He's totally right. $200/bbl is coming in 2010. A world economy in smoldering ruins. God, I really miss the "$300/bbl = world economy in smoldering ruins" sticky thread.

kpeavey · Expert Joined: Oct 04, 2004 Posts: 1259

Simmons is the De Facto spokesman for Peak Oil
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If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face--for ever."
-George Orwell, 1984

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Accept the Facts.

BigTex

CrudeAwakening · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jun 28, 2005 Posts: 830

It's kind of ironic that followers of Julian Simon promulgate the idea that lower prices of commodities indicate increasing abundance, but won't accept the corollary that higher prices indicate increasing scarcity.
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"Who knows what the Second Law of Thermodynamics will be like in a hundred years?" - Economist speaking during planning for World Population Conference in early 1970s

Nano

ROCKMAN

I prefer "High Priest"...lends a picture of a robed figure leading the ignorant masses down a particular road....rightly or wrongly.

"God" conjures up an image of someone who could actually affect the situation.

ROCKMAN

Serial_Worrier,

I'll go back to my old harp: might not be physically possible to have the global economy "in smoldering ruins" and $200/bbl.

The last time (1986) the global economy was "in smoldering ruins" oil went to $10/bbl.

But this isn't 1986 and PO wasn't looking them in the eyeballs back then. The demand destruction/PO race is on: place your bets ladies and gentlemen.

allenwrench · Intermediate Crude Joined: Apr 23, 2008 Posts: 883

pstarr

Nano oilfinder did either of you actually read the article?

The writer (and by extension, the publisher) concede that their team of economists have been wrong many times on peak oil, and that this lone investment banker was correct. The article offers no evidence to the contrary? It did not bother. Everyone but you now understands.

Oilfinder, will you tirelessly disassemble and parse you own denial forever on these forums? When is enough enough?
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