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Oil back up to 145
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Cashmere
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude


Joined: Mar 27, 2008
Posts: 1971

PostPosted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 5:29 am    Post subject: Oil back up to 145 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

And just like that the losses of the 3 day dip have been erased.

Anybody want to admit to being credulous enough to buying short positions when oil was down to 135?

Like I wrote before - there are 100 visible reasons why oil will go up.

Can anybody name 5 reasons that oil will go down?
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Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
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Olle
Tar Sands
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Joined: Jun 28, 2006
Posts: 93
Location: Sweden

PostPosted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 5:50 am    Post subject: Re: Oil back up to 145 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Cashmere wrote:

Can anybody name 5 reasons that oil will go down?


1. Economic recession
2. New capacity coming on line
3. Every new car bought uses less fuel than the one scraped
4. If there is no strike in Brazil
5. Is the EU/Iran-talks on nukes is successfull

I still believe you are right though, the price will go further up, but I’m far from sure
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DantesPeak
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Joined: Oct 23, 2004
Posts: 5928
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 5:55 am    Post subject: Re: Oil back up to 145 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

The pending collpase of mortgage giants, Fannie & Freddie, marks the beginning of the next wave of dollar debasement.

The first one started last November with a major change in Federal Reserve policies. The second one probably starts today as the government assumes trillions $s in mortgages, plus many trillions $ more in derivatives.

Due to these monetary/fiscal policies, eventually we will look back and see $145 as just a short stop on the way to a much higher price.
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It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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TreeFarmer
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Joined: Jun 26, 2007
Posts: 352

PostPosted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 6:03 am    Post subject: Re: Oil back up to 145 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Here is the real question that people on here seem to dance around a bit. What is a good place in which to put money so that I can profit from the coming run-up in oil prices? Do I go for oil company stocks, oil service company stocks, natural gas stocks, maybe an ETF like symbol "OIL" or what?

TF
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Olle
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 6:18 am    Post subject: Re: Oil back up to 145 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

TreeFarmer wrote:
Here is the real question that people on here seem to dance around a bit. What is a good place in which to put money so that I can profit from the coming run-up in oil prices? Do I go for oil company stocks, oil service company stocks, natural gas stocks, maybe an ETF like symbol "OIL" or what?

TF


I always recomend people to:

"buy on the rumour and sell on the news, do the opposite, do both or do neither depending on which way the wind is blowing"
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DoomWarrior
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Joined: May 06, 2008
Posts: 438
Location: Omicron Ceti 3

PostPosted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 6:20 am    Post subject: Re: Oil back up to 145 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

[quote="Olle"]
Cashmere wrote:


5. Is the EU/Iran-talks on nukes is successful




I'll believe that when the pigs eat my brother ........
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americandream
Fission
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Joined: Oct 18, 2004
Posts: 2124
Location: kiwibush

PostPosted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 6:27 am    Post subject: Re: Oil back up to 145 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Olle wrote:
Cashmere wrote:

Can anybody name 5 reasons that oil will go down?


1. Economic recession
2. New capacity coming on line
3. Every new car bought uses less fuel than the one scraped
4. If there is no strike in Brazil
5. Is the EU/Iran-talks on nukes is successfull

I still believe you are right though, the price will go further up, but I’m far from sure


Nothing short of imminent catastrophic mass death will convince the current generation of indoctrinated consumers that the era of oil is over.

And you can rest assured, that time is close at hand and there's nothing you will do to prepare for it given your above predicament likewise I, and most of humanity. Apart from the very culprits responsible for our predicament and who ironically, have the means to outlive us lesser mortals.
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jlw61
Intermediate Crude
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Joined: Sep 03, 2007
Posts: 639
Location: Sunny Virginia, USA

PostPosted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 6:30 am    Post subject: Re: Oil back up to 145 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

TreeFarmer wrote:
Here is the real question that people on here seem to dance around a bit. What is a good place in which to put money so that I can profit from the coming run-up in oil prices? Do I go for oil company stocks, oil service company stocks, natural gas stocks, maybe an ETF like symbol "OIL" or what?

TF


I'm not too worried about maintaining financial wealth in the banks or stock as that can dissapear overnight. I'm putting it into things that have real value. Some of those things can be confiscated by decree, but most of it would not be considered valuable or worth the effort to try to steal in the eyes of the government.

For my money, I'm putting it into:
=======================
Bicycles (electric and normal)
House improvements
Gardening, tools, seeds
Books
A new rifle
Metals (copper coated lead being the primary investment metal).



For my mind:
=======================
Learning to garden and save seeds
Learning skills of the past
Keeping up with my employer's needs, for now


For my time:
=======================
Whatever is needed to accomplish the above
Finishing my degree (3 classes left)
Getting to know the neighbors better
Talking to people willing to share ideas and listen to mine
Getting politically active on the local level


Now if I had read David Ramsey's book The Total Money Makeover 20 years ago and was sitting on a wad instead of my remaining debt which is being paid ASAP, I'd do what most investment people say.

32% in cash equivalents (metal, stocks, bonds, etc)
32% in low to moderate risk
32% in moderate to higher risk vehicles
4% hidden in the mattress (my addition to the mix)

Every year adjusting the money made so that each piece is once again at it's proper percentile. I would also endever to make sure at least half of it could be liquidated and wired to my bank in short order.

Each peice is broken up into various vehicles of investment with proper stop-losses on the high risk ventures. There is no single safe place to put your money, IMHO. In these trying times, it's even more uncertain.
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mobil1
Tar Sands
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Joined: Jun 20, 2008
Posts: 67
Location: Quebec/Ottawa, Canada

PostPosted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 6:38 am    Post subject: Re: Oil back up to 145 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Woah ! Speaking of currency debasement, gold just shot up from 950-960 in the last half-hour. It was 930 just over 24 hours ago and 920 48 hours ago.

Perhaps this is related to the news that gov't might have to take oer FRE and FNM and shareholders might get nohting. Will be interesting to see the stock market reaction today.

I see gold goes up at 8:00-8:30 EST or so last few days.
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Cashmere
Light Sweet Crude
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Joined: Mar 27, 2008
Posts: 1971

PostPosted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 7:11 am    Post subject: Re: Oil back up to 145 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Olle wrote:
Cashmere wrote:

Can anybody name 5 reasons that oil will go down?


1. Economic recession
2. New capacity coming on line
3. Every new car bought uses less fuel than the one scraped
4. If there is no strike in Brazil
5. Is the EU/Iran-talks on nukes is successfull

I still believe you are right though, the price will go further up, but I’m far from sure


1. Economic recession
Already going on.

2. New capacity coming on line
Nothing can come on line to offset current declines - not even those that are postulated already.


3. Every new car bought uses less fuel than the one scraped
Not quickly enough. Only a few non-hydrid U.S. cars currently made get more than 35 MPG - too late.


4. If there is no strike in Brazil.
The non-incidence of bad things is Bearish? Seems a bit empty.


5. Is the EU/Iran-talks on nukes is successful.
?

Like I said, nothing on the horizon is bearish.
_________________
Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
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Olle
Tar Sands
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Joined: Jun 28, 2006
Posts: 93
Location: Sweden

PostPosted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 7:37 am    Post subject: Re: Oil back up to 145 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Cashmere wrote:
Olle wrote:
Cashmere wrote:

Can anybody name 5 reasons that oil will go down?


1. Economic recession
2. New capacity coming on line
3. Every new car bought uses less fuel than the one scraped
4. If there is no strike in Brazil
5. Is the EU/Iran-talks on nukes is successfull

I still believe you are right though, the price will go further up, but I’m far from sure


1. Economic recession
Already going on.

2. New capacity coming on line
Nothing can come on line to offset current declines - not even those that are postulated already.


3. Every new car bought uses less fuel than the one scraped
Not quickly enough. Only a few non-hydrid U.S. cars currently made get more than 35 MPG - too late.


4. If there is no strike in Brazil.
The non-incidence of bad things is Bearish? Seems a bit empty.


5. Is the EU/Iran-talks on nukes is successful.
?

Like I said, nothing on the horizon is bearish.


The you KNOW the future and you KNOW how to make money out of it. Lucky you...
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TreeFarmer
Heavy Crude
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Joined: Jun 26, 2007
Posts: 352

PostPosted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 7:57 am    Post subject: Re: Oil back up to 145 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

jlw61 wrote:

Now if I had read David Ramsey's book The Total Money Makeover 20 years ago and was sitting on a wad instead of my remaining debt which is being paid ASAP, I'd do what most investment people say.

32% in cash equivalents (metal, stocks, bonds, etc)
32% in low to moderate risk
32% in moderate to higher risk vehicles
4% hidden in the mattress (my addition to the mix)


I've read Dave's book and I also highly recommend it to everyone. As for your investment mix, I don't see real estate there anywhere. I would suggest that you drop "moderate to higher risk vehicles" totally and invest in real estate. Perhaps 50 to 70% of your wealth should be in real estate, all the other stuff is playing Wall Street's and Washington's game.

As for what you wrote about improving yourself, I whole heartedly agree with that. To Dave's book I would add two more: http://www.amazon.com/Thou-Shall-Prosper-Commandments-Making/dp/0471710237/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1215784344&sr=8-1 and http://www.amazon.com/Your-Magic-Power-be-Rich/dp/B0019HWCKY/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1215784394&sr=1-1
those three make up my "trinity" of additional must reads after the Bible.

TF
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SoylentGreen
Heavy Crude
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Joined: May 25, 2008
Posts: 168

PostPosted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 8:53 am    Post subject: Re: Oil back up to 145 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Odds of Iran getting a serious kosher/US Air power spanking with a USN bitchslap on the side is 99.444% before October.We will see new record highs before we'll see oil under $130.
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emailking
Intermediate Crude
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Joined: Mar 11, 2006
Posts: 753

PostPosted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 9:29 am    Post subject: Re: Oil back up to 145 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Cashmere wrote:


1. Economic recession
Already going on.

2. New capacity coming on line
Nothing can come on line to offset current declines - not even those that are postulated already.


3. Every new car bought uses less fuel than the one scraped
Not quickly enough. Only a few non-hydrid U.S. cars currently made get more than 35 MPG - too late.


4. If there is no strike in Brazil.
The non-incidence of bad things is Bearish? Seems a bit empty.


5. Is the EU/Iran-talks on nukes is successful.
?

Like I said, nothing on the horizon is bearish.


Of course, one could similarly make one-line counterpoints for each of the 100 visible reasons you claim there are for why oil should go up.
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CoachT
Coal
Coal


Joined: Jul 02, 2008
Posts: 12

PostPosted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 10:05 am    Post subject: Re: Oil back up to 145 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

*********Comming Soon*********

No only will oil drop below $130, it will drop below $100.

Have a nice weekend.
Coach T
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